Research 2000: Obama trails by 10 in MS with 14% of AA vote Other or Undecided

[featherman]

"12 percent of African American remain undecided (for the presidential question as well, suggesting that these individuals didn't feel comfortable talking to a pollster -- evidence of the "reverse Bradley" effect that undercounted Obama's support in the polls in Southern states during the primary). Those black "undecided" voters should be worth another two points for Musgrove. So the rest of the margin will need to come from either white voters, or increased turnout among African Americans.

This poll assumes that African Americans will make up 37 percent of the vote. In 2004, exit polls pegged the black vote at 34 percent, so Research 2000 is already assuming heightened African American turnout. And interest in the election in Mississippi is certainly at record levels.

In the presidential, McCain leads Obama 50-40. DavidNYC wrote a piece back in May looking at what it would take to win Mississippi. Bottom line? 40 percent of African American turnout and 20 percent of the white vote to Obama."

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/17/12551/727/524/633085

White support polling at 15% a bit higher than Kerry's 14%. Non-white, non-AA (Hispanic, Asian, Native American) vote calculated at 1% for this poll but those democraphics are about 4% according to the census bureau:

Black persons, percent, 37.1%
American Indian and Alaska Native persons, 0.5%
Asian persons, 0.8%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, Z
Persons reporting two or more races, 0.7%
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, 1.8%
White persons not Hispanic, 59.3%

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/28000.html

[tekisui]

1. If all that is true, MS will go Obama.

Damn, he's is going to win the South!

[Alter Ego]

2. No, he won't.

But the Republican Party will sweat over it for the first time in a very LONG time.

[tekisui]

5. He has already shored up VA. Nearly shored up FL.

NC is heading his way. WV is in play.

If blacks make up 40% of the vote in MS, he will win in MS.

GA could surprise us. AS could AR.

What about SC and LA?

[Alter Ego]

6. I want him to put resources mainly into NC--that one's the best shot

and I don't want to get close seconds in all those Southern states--I'd rather lose big in a couple, but win a close one in another.

[yardwork]

9. It depends on turnout, and I don't see how increasing turnout hurts Obama anywhere.

I agree that he needs to put most of his resources in the winnable states, but encouraging high turnout in states like Mississippi helps Obama everywhere. It contributes to momentum.

Also, seriously, if Obama gets high turnout among his supporters in MS and McCain voters are so discouraged they stay home - Obama could win Mississippi!

OMG how sweet would that be?!

[BOSSHOG]

3. Checking in with a white guy vote for Obama here in Mississippi

And I'm more Joe Sixpack then any neanderthal drooling for mccain.

[southern_dem]

4. Make it two

Although, I'm what is called around here a "damn Yankee", not a native. :)

[matchstick]

12. thank you so much!!!!!! please spread the work in your state

[DeepBlueDem]

7. Obamas keys to victory in Mississippi

Demographics: 40% AA/minority turnout, 20% white vote

Locations: Jackson, Hattiesburg, Mississippi Delta, and the Gulf Coast.

If he gets the votes he need from these areas. Hell take it.

I'm able to pick up feeds from MGC tv stations. Again, I haven't seen one McCain ad here in a month.

[Connie_Corleone]

8. Are Obama ads running there?

[DeepBlueDem]

10. In Heavy Rotation.......

[jberryhill]

11. Saw this before... MS could be the real sleeper surprise of the night Nov. 4th

Wouldn't that be something?

This election is a stand up and be counted moment in American history, for every state in this great country.

The reward will be pride for those who said "Enough!"

[Clio the Leo]

13. Here we go! This is the one I've been waiting for! NT

[johnnyrocket]

14. Obama is NOT winning MS! If he would win MS...he's winning...

...every single state in the nation...including AZ.

So, no, it's just no going to happen.

[Phx_Dem]

15. I noticed the other day on 538.com that McCain wasn't that far ahead in MS

I don't think Obama will win Mississippi, but it tells you had badly McRobocall is doing in th red states.
Wouldn't it be super fun if Obama did win MS or some other bastion of conservatism. :evilgrin: :nuke: