Hotline Tracking: Obama 50 (+1), McCain 40 (-1)

[democrattotheend]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/

Strange...seems to show the opposite trend of the R2K poll, which showed McCain having a much stronger night last night (50-44 in the one night sample, compared to 52-42 the night before).

Zogby stayed steady at Obama+5...will be interesting to see what Rasmussen and Gallup say today. The fact that Drudge is not blasting the Rasmussen today is a good sign.

[BzaDem]

1. Woohoo!

[HughMoran]

2. Does Fudge get the Rasmussen numbers early?

Subscribers get the #'s early?

[Alter Ego]

7. If the Ras numbers aren't on Drudge by 9:15 EST, we'll know they must have been good.

[jezebel]

11. I would usually agree with you but he didn't show yesterdays # where McCain pulled within 4 at 46 nt

[polichick]

3. Morning Joe says the Gallup shows a 2 pt lead for Obama - but that can't be right.

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. He's cherry-picking the most McCain-favorable of the "Likely Voter Model"

which shows Obama up 49-47. (i.e., few new registered voters will actually vote). The other Likely model has Obama up 6.

[Nevernose]

5. Faux said it, too

I thought one of those morning people was going to have an orgasm on camera.

[bushisanidiot]

12. Scarborough is a right wing hack. Just like Brokaw, David Gregory and most of MSNBC.

Still, they are a little more fair than the (C)onservative (N)ews (N)etwork.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

13. It sort of is.

Gallup is using three models now - registered voters, "traditional" likely voters, and "expanded" likely voters. RVs are self-explanatory. TLVs are people that indicate they will vote AND have voted in the past. ELVs are people that indicate that they will vote but have NOT voted in the past.

RVs: Obama is +6
TLVs: Obama is +2
ELVs: Obama is +6

Why is there a difference? Probably because Obama has an enormous lead in young and first-time voters, which is why they don't necessarily show up in the TLV model. Given the state of this election and the enthusiasm of the new voters, the ELV is much more likely to be valid in this election (fivethirtyeight.com concurs).

[Alter Ego]

6. Yee-hah!

That's gotta be one of the rare times we've hit 50 in Diageo/Hotline!

[SuperTrouper]

8. Easy does it. We have to be steady. The MSM is trying with all

its might to say "tight race"

[democrattotheend]

15. Yeah, and so is Obama

Have you heard him the past 2 days? He's been the biggest "concern troll" of anyone, saying "remember New Hampshire" and stressing that it's not over yet.

[Schulzz]

9. I don't buy this "every poll is tightening" talk yet.

State polls show no movement towards McCain and I will wait 3 days to see the full impact of the last debate to judge the national polls. Every tracking poll has good or bad days for either candidate, especially with the small one samples that Hotline and R2000 are using.

[democrattotheend]

14. State polls are usually a few days behind

The national polls usually show the trends first. State polls are generally conducted over a longer period of time.

[bushisanidiot]

10. I'm convinced that Obama has at least a 10 point lead due to those landline only polls.

There's a tremendous groundswell of young voters who don't use landlines and only use cell phones. There's a helluva lot of people on our side who will never get polled.

[WI_DEM]

16. I used to post the R2K polls but people always dismissed them, but now that Obama may go down in

them or rather be where all the other trackers put the race, people will start to panic--that's my prediction.