Rasmussen daily tracking graph for 10/16/08 - Obama 50, McCain 46 (McCain up 1)

[DavidDvorkin]

The approval minus disapproval trend is surprising and a bit unsettling.










These Rasmussen graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[Yes We Did]

1. Bull. Shit.

We should ban their polls. No offense DavidD, not shooting the messenger, just the ridiculous message.

[FVZA_Colonel]

2. Well, let's hope the debate gives Obama another boost.

All the polls and most of the pundits have said he won.

[NJGeek]

3. Looks similar to the Clinton-Obama primary chart

Hopefully it will be a similar result.

[Yes We Did]

4. Eh....

Do you know what you just started? :popcorn:

[Kdillard]

5. Hmm interesting we will see what happens over the course of the next few days.

McCain and the RNC are doing everything in their power to smear Obama with Robocalling etc. These next two weeks or so are not going to be easy.

[phrigndumass]

6. Looking at Razz crosstabs ...

McCain gained two points among women and two points among men since yesterday. Also noticed that in the last 5 days, Obama's lead in Razz among women has dropped from +17 (57-40) to +8 (52-44).

Further, McCain has gained 2.5 points among African American voters since last week.

Young voters age 18-29 have dropped 10 points since last week in Razz. It was Obama +30 last week, and it is Obama +20 this week.

The only area that Obama has gained in Razz since last week is among voters age 40-49.

Thanks for the graphs, David! K/R :hi:

[DavidDvorkin]

7. Now I feel even queasier.

I think I'll have another drink.

But maybe it was the first drink that made me feel queasy.

Only one way to find out!

[phrigndumass]

8. lol ... It could be bad samples

It's highly doubtful that women and black voters have moved that much in such a short time, not without a game changer. :D

[Awsi Dooger]

12. The so-called moves don't mean anything

Do the cross tabs make sense? Obama +17 among women makes no sense.

I have no idea how you guys are so paralyzed by polls as opposed to long term known voting trends among specific demographics, adjusted by the current situational terrain. Big hint: it saves plenty of headaches.

Obama is fine but he won't win by the lopsided 8+ margin of many recent national polls, not even close to that.

[phrigndumass]

13. Scott Rasmussen, is that you?

Making poor assessments and bad assumptions again? I think it's time your negativity and mean-spiritedness is turned back upon you, Awsi.

If you're an expert as you claim, then why are you so offended when others don't agree with you? Why do you feel it necessary to demean others like that? "I have no idea how you guys are so paralyzed by polls ..." And this is just your latest put-down of everyone who doesn't agree with you.

In the two dozen or so exchanges I've had with you, I've tried to be very patient with you. It's like you have a huge chip on your shoulder, and you have a major problem with others being optimistic! From my experience with you, I don't like you at all.

I suspect you have an addiction to gambling, and/or you have lost a lot of money gambling on elections, and this has made you a very bitter person. How's that for an assumption? Anywhere in the ballpark?

[grantcart]

18. Well I guess I will have to go back and tell our congressional candidate

that the private polls in the CA 50 - one of the most Republican in the state are wrong when the same polling firm is showing a 22 point move in 4 weeks.


With the Republicans giving up in state after state it is becoming obvious that they are running out of money and are now channeling it to their desperate Senate campaigns.

[DavidDvorkin]

14. Results of experiment:

Slightly queasier, but much less concerned about poll details.* So now I think you must be right about the samples.







*Also having more trouble typing.

[phrigndumass]

17. Ha! I think it needs more study ...

:hi:

[Jennicut]

9. Obama losing 10 points in the 18-29 age group? Alrighty then.

Crappy polling in my opinion. How can he drop 10 points in the youth vote in one week? Because Rasmussen wants a horse race. Don't be naive everyone. We know from a former Gallup worker how they show only what they want to show to frame a race.

[TheKentuckian]

10. Model/weight change or no?

Those shifts seem insane. Nothing changed to force such a move. My spidey senses say more Republicans were put in the weighting since the Freepers have been crying constantly about that.

Kick the darkness until it bleeds daylight.

[Convertee]

11. screw rasmussen

[A-Schwarzenegger]

15. You want to know where the race is, look at where theyre pouring money & campaigning.

Theyre all in red states, except for when McCain is
throwing away money in Iowa. You need to step back from the Razz.

[amborin]

16. dems need to fight harder