Intrade always indicates TODAY what the pollsters say 2-3 days from now.

[Bicoastal]

They were the first to indicate a dramatic dip for Barack Obama post-RNC, even while many of us said "No worries! The polls still look good!" And they were the first to turn in the other direction, even while most of us cried "We're doomed! We're screwn!"

Since the weekend, I noticed a slight uptick for McCain and downtick for Barack Obama--It was still about 75/25, but McCain kept gaining and Obama kept losing. Obama had seemed certain to break 80 earlier, but now he was barely over 74. This was about the time that the ACORN and Ayres stuff really ramped up, you see, and McCain was starting to set up people's expectations for the debates in a big way--but it was also around the time that the popular vote polls were projecting a 10% lead. So while many of you are surprised about the sudden tightening, I was expecting it.

Right now? Well, since the debate ended it's been going up and up and up, pretty much without stop--whereas this weekend, Obama's movement was by and large negative and McCain's numbers were quite often positive, now the opposite seems true As I type this, it's nearly up to 85 for Obama, while McCain commands a paltry 15--and Obama had rarely gotten to 80, prior to Tuesday night.

In a few days, the polls will show this too--you can bank on it.

[godai]

1. Thanks for the info. I'll begin checking the site.

http://www.intrade.com/

[Marsala]

2. Interesting theory

I don't trust Intrade at all since it's vulnerable to manipulation by single individuals, but you may have a good handle on it and its connection to the polls.

[Bicoastal]

3. Well, yes, it CAN be manipulated by individuals...

...but like Wikipedia, other individuals can and often do push back to even things out.

The most important factor is that neither Democrats nor Republicans WANT to lose money.