A Pessimist's View of the Race (don't worry, it's good news.)

[Chichiri]

Here's what I did: I took each state, gave them each a score between 1 and 7, where 1 is solid McCain, 7 is solid Obama, and 4 is toss-up, then constructed a number of scenarios from best case to worst case. In assigning scores, I used mostly RCP's poll averages -- RCP being an excellent combination of comprehensive and nonpartisan -- and, being a pessimist, I gave McCain the benefit of the doubt wherever possible.


Obama takes all likelies (1-6): 383 - 155 Obama
Obama takes all leanings (1-5): 380 - 158 Obama
Obama takes all tossups (1-4): 364 - 174 Obama
No toss-ups: 286 - 174 Obama
Split toss-ups: 335 - 213 Obama
McCain takes all tossups (4-7): 286 - 252 Obama
McCain takes all leanings (3-7): 259 - 279 McCain
McCain takes all likelies (2-7): 238 - 300 McCain


What, did you expect BAD news? Just because I'm a pessimist? :)


Here's a breakdown of the states by score:

TOSSUPS (4)
Florida is +4.8 Obama, but, well, it's Florida. A little more work can, I think, put it into leaning Obama. Missouri is a coin flip right now, I think. Ohio looks promising, but RCP only has Obama up 3.4 there. North Carolina has Obama up 1.2 -- freaking AWESOME for a dem, but certainly nothing to bank on. And Nevada, which is +3.0.

Take note: ALL of these states are polling for Obama right now, but I've listed them as toss-ups -- this is what I mean by giving McCain the benefit of the doubt. Any state that's averaging even a tiny bit toward McCain gets a score less than 4.


LEANING McCAIN (3)
Indiana and West Virginia. These will probably go to McCain unless we put SERIOUS effort into them.


LEANING OBAMA (5)
Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia. Now here's what you should probably take away from this report: McCain needs to win either Virginia or both of the other two, plus ALL of the tossups, to win the election. RCP's poll average has Colorado at Obama +5.8, New Mexico at +7.0, and Virginia at +6.5.


PROBABLY OBAMA, BUT... (6)
Minnesota, Iowa and New Hampshire. I'm not really worried about the first two, but Palin campaigned in NH today, so they're looking at it. Keep an eye on all three.


PROBABLY MCCAIN, BUT... (2)
North Dakota. I'm assuming the recent poll putting Obama ahead by two is an outlier, but it does raise an eyebrow. Maybe our ground forces can pull off a miracle, eh?


SOLID OBAMA (7) or SOLID MCCAIN (1)
All the rest -- you probably don't need me to tell you which is which.


THE BOTTOM LINE
McCain could take all of the toss-ups, and he would still lose -- by the same score, it so happens, by which Kerry lost to the Chimp four years ago. Obama needs the Kerry states (which are all 6 or 7) plus 18 EVs. Either Missouri or Indiana, combined with Iowa, would put him over the top. Florida alone would put him over the top. Ohio alone would put him over the top.

It's becoming more difficult by the day to be a pessimist. I think we're going to win this election. :)

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I think right now the worst case scenario for Obama is...

That he wins with 276 (NM, Iowa and Colorado + all of Kerry's states).

I don't see how he loses.

[AndyTiedye]

4. They Would Have to Steal Up to 6% of the Vote in Every Swing and Leaning State

Which is the exact amount that the MSM tells us that the "Bradley Effect" red shift will be.

[Chichiri]

6. I personally don't think the Bradley Effect is real.

eom

[AndyTiedye]

7. Of Course The "Bradley Effect" is Not Real, but the "Diebold Effect and the "Coffman Effect" Are!

The mythical "Bradley Effect" gives them cover.

[graywarrior]

2. Obama has NH.

Trust me.

[Chichiri]

3. You appear to be holding a duck hostage.

So yes, I'll trust you.

[graywarrior]

5. He will be released when Obama gets sworn in on 1 20 09

And trust me that I have never seen my area of NH this excited about a candidate. NH does not excite easily.