Will Bin Laden Strike Again? (October Surprise!)

[file83]

From FiveThirtyEight.com:

So when it came to the 2004 election, bin Laden was neither pro-Bush nor pro-Kerry. He was pro-war. And whichever candidate was most likely to sustain, or even escalate, that war was his man. That candidate was clearly George W. Bush, which meant it was time to turn on the cameras and burn a DVD.

This time around, we have one candidate who advocates a timetable to withdraw our troops from Iraq and divert those resources to Afghanistan in order to root out the people who actually attacked us seven years ago – bin Laden and his band of terrorists. And then we have a candidate who talks about maintaining U.S. forces in Iraq for 100 years if necessary, and sings songs in public about pre-emptively bombing Iran, which would set yet another gear turning in bin Laden’s scheme to bring about global war. Once again it appears that bin Laden would prefer the Republican candidate, and once again it appears that since any appearance by bin Laden is likely to tip voters towards favoring the decorated Vietnam War veteran, bin Laden’s best move is to show up with another October Surprise.

(Read the whole article - it's very interesting, yet depressing!)

[Tim4319]

1. I believe his remains will be discovered in some cave in the mountains!

Wink, wink!

[graywarrior]

2. McCain will deliver him like Lassie delivers the newspaper

[last1standing]

3. Doesn't he always?

Actually, it's usually a video.

Much like the dropping gas prices, these little "incentives" to vote repub are becoming more of a running joke than anything else. I hear people talking about gas prices and the next video in relation to the upcoming election. Even repubs laugh about it.

[file83]

4. If Osama does NOT release a video, I will be surprised. n/t

[Bubbha Jo]

5. If "he" does, that would simply prove Bush/GOP actions to prevent attacks

didn't work. I believe he's been dead a few years myself though.

The Bin Laden tape released on Friday afternoon before the 2004 election certainly affected it though in my opinion.

[blogslut]

6. I vehemently disagree with Rany Jazayerli's premise

A bin Laden tape will not tip favor towards old Johnny McSame. It will just remind us that the man has not been caught.

Actually, every point Jazayerli brings up is wrong - bin Laden doesn't give a shit about our elections. This is not 2004. Americans are far more concerned about whether or not they can pay their rent than they are about some vague/veiled threat made by some guy that speaks in a language they can't understand.

A bin Laden tape will be one more instance of the good old boys crying wolf.

[nyhuskyfan]

7. Would it help McCain?

I don't think it would. The only thing the R's have left is to say we haven't had any terror attacks since 2001 (although I would consider the LAX shooting on July 4, 2002 to be a terror attack - it certainly made everyone nervous about flying again for a while).

[Capn Sunshine]

8. Bad logic

pundits, especially the inside the beltway types, don't understand or are too incurious to venture outside their bubble and see how the landscape has changed. What worked in 2000, even 2004, does not work any longer. The public sees through the BS now. These guys write as if 2006 , which was a categoric repudiation of all that, did not happen.

All a Bin Laden event would do now is remind everyone about the failed policies of the republicans and their screwed up priorities; priorities that nearly destroyed this country.

[Sodan]

9. It'll help McLame if he catches him -personally-