Pennsylvania - Swing State, Shming State. Paint It Blue Already.

[jefferson_dem]

http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/08-pa-pres-ge-mvo.php

Will McCain-Palin Be Keystoned?

October 13, 2008 6:16 PM

The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll of Pennsylvania voters has bad news for the GOP ticket.

Not only is Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in the lead, but Sen. John McCain's unfavorables (42%) are higher than his favorables (40%).

Same with Gov. Sarah Palin (43% unfavorable, 41% favorable).

For Obama (fave 50%, unfave 35%) and Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., (fave 51%, unfave 28%) the news is a bit better.

The Obama campaign says they cannot envision a real path to the nomination for McCain without the Republican winning Pennsylvania.

But, as I said earlier today, three weeks is a lifetime in politics.

- jpt

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/10/will-mccain-pal.html

[Faygo Kid]

1. Yeah, and Missouri is moving strongly blue, too.

Eight points. That's at least a light blue.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/mo_obama_51_mccain_43_101112.php

[JimGinPA]

2. I've Been Sayin'

:shrug:



K&R

[Barack_America]

6. Most of the people who live in PA have been declaring it "no contest" for some time.

Elections here are decided by the turnout in Philly and Philly's surrounding suburbs.

Well, Philly is unbelievably fired up, with tons of new registrations and an enormous GOTV effort shaping up. And the surrounding counties are trending Obama, with possibly the exception of Bucks which seems to be inexplicably full of racists. But Chester County is a pick up for Obama as Kerry lost that county in 2004 and still won the state. So the pickup of Chester and what's going on in Philly will easily cancel out Bucks.

End result? PA really is no contest, something we who live here have been sensing for a while.

[Arugula Latte]

3. How about Schwing! state?

[jefferson_dem]

5. Ah...An American Classic!

"We're Not Worthy...We're Not Worthy!"

[occe]

4. There's no doubt

That PA will go to Barack. I truly believe this, and I usually don't get optimistic :)

[rufus dog]

7. They are running out of options

McCain and the MSM can't call anymore states for Obama or the door will slam shut.

[RamboLiberal]

8. Good story in NY Times on young voters at Penn State

-----

Of the roughly 8.6 million registered voters in Pennsylvania, 10 percent are between the ages of 18 and 24, state figures show. In the Democratic primary here, young voters made up 14 percent of those who cast ballots, according to futuremajority.com, a left-leaning blog that follows youth involvement in politics.

Mr. Obama has a double-digit lead in the recent polls in Pennsylvania, and Penn State seems a microcosm of its home. “It’s heavy Obama here,” said Josh Rea, who works as a cook on the campus. “The whole change message works well here. Kids want something different because what they’ve grown up with hasn’t been all that great.”

-----

There is a conservative group on campus, the Young Americans for Freedom. A stop by their locked office on Sunday yielded no humans. A sign plastered to the door read: “Number of people at Ann Coulter’s speech: 1,200. Number of People lined up to have their books signed: 200 +. Number of active YAF members: 12.”

The scene was a little different at the Obama regional headquarters for Centre County, just up the street from campus. College students — alongside older supporters — punched out buttons, worked the phones and made posters. “We have 300 to 400 kids a week in here,” said Zachary Zabel, the president of Penn State Students for Barack Obama. “We all feel this is the most important campus in the country.”

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/road-to-november-the-youth-vote-in-pennsylvania/

[Bucky]

9. These are the last four Pennsylvania polls

50%-39% (Oct 5-Oct 9) Muhlenberg Coll.
52%-42% (Oct 3-Oct 6) West Chester U.
54%-41% (Oct 6-Oct 6) Rasmussen
55%-40% (Oct 5-Oct 6) SurveyUSA