There is no Bradley effect says a guy that was part of the 1982 campaign

[ps1074]

Now that polls indicate Senator Barack Obama is the favorite to win, some analysts predict a racially biased “Bradley Effect” could prevent Obama from winning a majority on November 4th. That is a pernicious canard and is unworthy of 21st century political narratives. I should know. I was there in 1982 at “ground zero” in California when I served George Deukmejian as his general election pollster and as a member of his strategy team when he defeated African-American Democratic California gubernatorial candidate Tom Bradley, not once but twice, in 1982 and again in 1986.

Bradley Effect believers assume that there is an undetectable tendency in the behavior of some white voters who tell pollsters that they are “undecided” when in fact their true preference is to vote against the black candidate. This so-called effect suggests the power or advantage to alter an outcome – a pretty serious charge. This would render poll projections inaccurate (overstating both the number of undecided voters and the African-American candidate’s margin over a white opponent) and create an unaccounted for different outcome. However, it is indeed a “theory in search of data.”

The hype surrounding the Bradley Effect has evolved to where some political pundits believe in 2008 that Obama must win in the national pre-election polls by 6-9 points before he can be assured a victory. That’s absurd. There won’t be a 6-9 point Bradley Effect –- there can’t be, since few national polls show a large enough amount of undecided voters and it's in the undecided column where racism supposedly hides.

The other reason I reject the Bradley Effect in 2008 is because there was not a Bradley Effect in the 1982 California Governor’s race, either. Even though Tom Bradley had been slightly ahead in the polls in 1982, due to sampling error, it was statistically too close to call. For example, the daily Tarrance and Associates tracking polls for the Deukmejian campaign showed the following weekly summations (N=1000 each) during the month of October:

Week of:
Oct.7th Oct. 14th Oct. 21st Oct. 28 Nov. 1

Bradley 49 45 46 45 45

Deukmejian 37 41 41 42 44

more... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html

The author worked for the George Deukmejian campaign in 1982

[still_one]

1. The Bradley effect is a republican talking point to motivate racist republicans to vote /nt

[tblue]

2. This is very enlightening. The psycho-analytical spin is getting old.

Thanks for posting.

[liberalmuse]

3. Yessss!!! I've been sayin'!

There is no 'Bradley Effect'! I wish the MSM would do their damn research. It makes most white people look like asshole bigots, and it belittles people of color. It is sickening.

My lack of intelligence is compensated with a built-in, finely tuned bullshit detector.

[AndyTiedye]

4. "Diebold Effect" Might be a Better Term For It

[liberalmuse]

6. And they really want to spin it as 'The Bradley Effect'.

It makes me sick. They kill two birds with one stone by getting away with voter theft, and crushing the black population with, 'Sorry. White people just couldn't stomach voting for a black man, even though he was clearly head and shoulders above the white guy.', 'cause they were getting, you know, too 'uppity' and need to be put in their 'place'. That is why we have to fight any attempt at voter theft AND fight this stupid 'Bradley Effect' bullshit narrative that the 'pubs are slinging out there.

[dchill]

11. "Diebold Effect" - yes, in the modern day...

The "Bradley Effect" is a straw-man setup for a stolen election. Like Rove's "invisible evangelicals" in 2004 - only this time they're setting it up ahead of time. It won't work because of the "Obama Effect."

[Peacetrain]

5. I heard Mark Shields say the same thing on PBS

He said that the 30,000 early voters who were republican (and this was the start of the push by one party to get the absentees out early) was what did it. That the actual voters who were polled right up before the election actually voted for Bradley..

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

7. I'm hoping after this election we never hear about the "Bradley Effect" ever, ever again.

Now let's talk about the "Palin" effect: A large, brief bump in the polls after your running mate is announced, followed by a large, slow unstoppable decline when people start figuring out what a loser she is.

[treestar]

9. LOL

:rofl: A DUzy!

[Overseas]

8. K&R -- For more truth on the table.

I think the Republican Desertion Effect will be more important.

The Republican Party has abandoned 95% of the American people, so many of them will return the favor, without telling their friends & family.

[mirrera]

10. Even Rachel Maddow used the phrase...