Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: Obama leads 51-38% among LVs in CO,MI,NH,NM,NV,FL,OH,PA,VA & WI

[DCBob]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/TheEarlyLine-Oct-13.html
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Although the national poll shows a slight dip in Obama's lead, he continues to lead comfortably in states that matter. This means that what small gains McCain made are probably just making red states redder. Landslide is still your best bet.

[writes3000]

1. That is BIG news if it's true.

I haven't decided how much credence to give this poll.

But if Obama's got this kind of lead in those states now....and this poll is correct...

I'm getting very, very excited.

[grantcart]

2. Well everyone is showing Florida and Pennsylvania Blue

if both those states go blue its over

[DCBob]

4. The Obama campaign is inundating these states with ads and scheduling repeat visits by Obama et al.

They are now starting their Oct offensive and will blow McCain away. The old angry warmonger won't know what hit him.

[Stevepol]

9. Isn't this poll tracking Latino Voters (LVs)?

[Occam Bandage]

10. likely, not Latino.

[Hope And Change]

3. K & R!

[yellowcanine]

5. The "slight dip" national lead is a tracking poll artifact, imo. There is almost always a slight

movement in favor of Republicans in weekend polling for the daily tracking polls - I noticed it in 1992 and every election since then.

[DCBob]

6. Yes, that weekend effect does appear to be real. Is the theory that..

younger, more educated, active "Obama-types" are not at home on weekends to take the call?

[nickn777]

7. I think its more likely the "weighting" on the Hotline poll....

last night was 40%-D , 37%-R ,remainder IND........this is a little off the average distribution of US voters by party...which is about 39% D, 33% R......in fact, this is the weight rasmussen uses, or has been, for quite some time....this is why there is less volatility in his polls....

That's why there is plenty of guesswork in polls, because, in the end, you do not know exactly 'who' is going to show up on election day.....

[yellowcanine]

8. I don't know the reasons. But it does appear to be real. OTOH the Gallup tracking poll has Obama

up slightly with a 10 point lead. So who knows?