Cause for CONCERN

[iceman66]

I will preface my remarks by stating that I think Obama is an exceptional candidate, probably the best we've had in a long, long time. I have supported him since the primaries and think he would make a wonderful president. He is running a brilliant campaign, both in terms of media management and 'ground game', and is on the right side of all of the issues that 'should' matter to an even minimally-informed swing voter.

I have no doubt that if we could be assured a FAIR election, Obama would win handily. Given the experience of 2000, 2002, and 2004, however, this is far from certain. I have noted some disturbing trends recently that point to the possibility of another stolen election:

1. The MSM has devoted an absolutely inordinate amount of time to two specific non-issues - Acorn, and the so-called 'Bradley Effect'. Seriously, in a week that saw the biggest decline in the stock market ever, along with other bad economic news, these 'issues' (along with endless regurgitations of the Ayers BS) completely dominated the cable networks' election coverage to the point where a legitimate political story (Palin's abuse of power) was almost completely swept under the rug.

The Acorn story is significant because, even though absolutely NO identifiable link exists between the Obama campaign and any fraudulent voter applications, and NO reasonable expectation that said applications will result in any actual fraudulent votes, the constant repetition of the story is intended to create a narrative in the mind of the viewer: 'Obama is somehow linked to election fraud; Obama is trying to cheat' - To reinforce the narrative, they've even gone so far as to use very loaded language to document Obama's very real gains in 'red' states - e.g., Obama trying to 'steal' Virginia on CNN.com.

The purpose of this is to blunt any attempt by Obama to contest a stolen election - he will be perceived as equally 'dirty' - and also to give McCain ammunition to contest a close election to the Supreme Court.

The endless promotion of the 'Bradley Effect' is, in effect, an attempt to increase the margin of error. One can surmise that they had made plans to 'Diebold' a 'close' election, but the McCain campaign is performing much worse than anticipated. There is a good chance that he will be down in the polls as much as 6 or so percent going into election day.

Hence we are told - over, and over and over again - that Obama may under-perform by as much as (big surprise) "6 percent" due to the mysterious Bradley effect!

The problem with this is that if there were any such 'effect', we would have seen it in the primaries - remember that Obama's campaign really took off after his unexpectedly strong showing in the Iowa caucus - in a very 'white' state - and this trend continued throughout the primaries.

Is it really unreasonable to assume that all this talk of a 'Bradley Effect' is no more than pre-emptive 'cover' for another stolen election?

2. Some of the recent moves by the McCain campaign are, to say the least, bizarre.

McCain has made repeated appearances in Iowa in recent days, where the polls aren't even close, and also has devoted a surprising amount of resources to Pennslyvania, which also tips heavily in Obama's favor, rather than focusing on defending must-win 'red' states like Florida and Virginia. Bad strategy, or more 'cover' - is there something about the voting (or vote-counting) mechanisms of these states that can be manipulated?

3. McCain is not running like he's trying to actually win over undecided voters - traditionally the strategy is to play to the 'base' while seeking the nomination, then move to the center for the general election. McCain continues to embrace the extreme right. For an example, consider his rather obviously disastrous 'health care' proposal. Can you imagine that winning him a single undecided voter, anywhere?

Again, this could simply be bad strategy. However, imagine for a moment that he was told months ago that the 'fix was in' - might he not do this in order to generate apparent 'political capital' to implement an extreme right agenda when 'elected'?

Some of you may call me a 'concern troll'. I don't care. This election is TOO important for overconfidence. If anything the Achilles' heel in the overall Democratic strategy has been the almost complete avoidance of the issue of possible election fraud by both the national party and our leaders in Congress - It doesn't matter if you can play the game better than the other guy if you are playing by the rules and the other guy is willing to cheat!

[NYC_SKP]

1. I can't this, it's too long. Thanks for the paragraph breaks, though.

And we will win.

[RichGirl]

3. I enjoyed the paragraph breaks too...they were very airy.

[CreekDog]

38. Those spaces were the best part of the entire post!

:eyes:

[iceman66]

4. You had better hope so.

Do you have any idea how bad things will get in this country if McCain is allowed to 'win'?

[NYC_SKP]

24. Oh, if that happens the next election will be fought with guns and knives.

I'm painfully aware of how important this is which is why I've donated for the first time this year, and volunteered and phonebanked, etc.

And I did read your post. I think it's all the people outside this board that need to hear it, though.

:toast:

[iceman66]

27. You and me both!

[Seen the light]

2. .

[msallied]

7. Okay, that is the most awesome graphic ever!!

[Chorophyll]

50. Seconded.

It gives me graphic-chills. :thumbsup:

[ecstatic]

11. rofl. MS Paint? nt

[spag68]

5. Cause for concern

After the prior experience we've seen, not to be concerned would be stupid. Hopefully we here don't fall into that category. Remember, the "other" guy will not have to "cheat" if he makes the rules.

[Life Long Dem]

6. Troll on... it doesn't concern me!

:woohoo:

[iceman66]

9. Let me ask you a question

Do you think either of the last two presidential elections were stolen?

[CreekDog]

39. I think getting the most votes for our guy is the most effective thing we can do now

Got a better plan??? I mean the election is 3 weeks away. Should all of us divert all of our energy to election protection?

I mean what is your damned solution if you are such a genius.

and if this weren't the fifth thread that sounds exactly like the previous four i've read this weekend with no concrete suggestions, just demoralizing rants about how it all might not matter (and probably will not matter), i would be more patient with you. alas it's not.

stop talking down to us as if we don't know anything despite being around here through lots of tough years for Democrats and lots of questionable voting.

just stop patronizing me and everyone else here and think of something original.

and if you have advice, give some! posting a bunch of concerns without anything to answer them is demoralizing...concern trolls know that --we know that, do you know it?

[jsmirman]

8. Jeez, forget no links between Obama and Acorn. There are no links between acorn and any false VOTES

biggest fucking non story ever. So fucking dumb it makes my head hurt.

Requires two sentences to explain, three max.

Must always be followed with, "and stop being a fucking dumbass."

[iceman66]

10. And yet it has playing ENDLESSLY on CNN and the other cable networks

Why do you think that is exactly?

[FogerRox]

16. SO they can sell advertising time.

[msallied]

20. Are you really so stupid to think that the media has THAT much control?

Frankly, over the last eight years, I would think that you would realize that they don't dictate NEARLY the amount of the political narrative as you may think. Do you think you're only one of maybe a dozen people who notice a problem with the cable news media? Please get over yourself.

Recent research has shown that an overwhelming majority of cable news viewers (with the exception of Fox News) vote Democrat.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/news_you_watch_says_a_lot_about_how_you_ll_vote

The three major cable networks COMBINED equal to less than 3 million viewers. And people who watch daily network news again tend to vote Democrat. If you look at the numbers by themselves, you will see that the most of the viewers are people who aren't. fucking. buying. it. Or they're watching Fox and NEVER would have voted for Obama anyway.

Stop using what the talking heads are saying as a barometer. Despite what many here at DU think, a lot of people are able to think for themselves.

[iceman66]

23. The primary role of the media

in general is to frame the news in such a way as to keep us all happy (and docile) consumers, not so much to dictate how people will vote.

In this example, the idea is to create a plausible narrative to explain away a possible anomalous election result. I don't think they even know if it is going to be stolen yet, but they are concerned about the possibility.

[msallied]

12. According to the idiom dictionary:

hand-wringing
wring your hands - to show that you are very sad or anxious about a situation but do nothing to improve it.

[iceman66]

13. Don't assume I've done nothing.

However, like any private individual, there is only so much I CAN do,

I can only hope our party leaders have done more on this issue behind the scenes than they've let on in public.

[FogerRox]

22. I have gone from taxi driver to policy advisor to a congressional candidate

in 3 years......There is only so much I CAN do......

11 campaigns in 4 years.....

There is only so much I CAN do......

Hosted my 3rd fundraiser, but I rent a room for $400 a month......

I drive a taxi... $400 a month for rent is all I can afford

I got Mark Alexander to speak at my lunch saturday Oct 11th.

There is only so much I CAN do......

[iceman66]

26. That is all very good.

However, I am referring specifically to the issue of election fraud. There is only so much a private individual can do, other than to 'spread the word' and write letters to officials.

[crispini]

34. Untrue. You can become an election official in your county.

Probably too late for you this time around, but I really felt a lot better about my county after I became an election judge and got an intimate familiarity with the workings of the election and got to meet our elections administrator.

Widespread fraud, IMO, is not all that practical.

[iceman66]

45. This is good advice.

Thank you.

[FogerRox]

42. You are right..... we are all powerless

I am now so depressed, I'm not even going to vote.

[FogerRox]

43. "but do nothing to improve it. " OMG that is so spot on, funny as hell

[Princess Turandot]

14. hmmm..

(This message is approved by Razputin.)

[Quixote1818]

15. How come all the concerned people around here are the ones who never donate to DU

and have low post counts?

[iceman66]

17. Well

1. At the moment, any spare $ for donations goes directly to Obama.

2. Does quantity necessarily trump quality?

[ShortnFiery]

18. I'm beginning to hate the word "CONCERN" ...

almost as much as when my statistics professor RUINED the word "elegant" by applying it to data distributions.

To me, the word "concern" irritates me as much ... no, more so than "bitch."

Go Figure. :silly:

[Bluebear]

19. 99 out of 100 people don't even know what "acorn" is, don't be concerned.

[writes3000]

21. TELL US, PLEASE: What have YOU done to help lately!

Excuse my frustrated tone but I'm SICK of these posts that only have "concern" and have NO IDEAS OR INSPIRATION TO FIX THINGS.

So if you expect us to do something other than wilt under your great depression, please offer up something other than this.

Tell us what YOU'VE done so we can be so inspired.

Please.

[iceman66]

31. All we can really do

as individuals is to work hard to get Obama elected, i.e., donate and volunteer (which I have done) DESPITE the favorable poll numbers. The vote-fixers are not omnipotent, and if Obama's margin is sufficiently large, they probably won't be able to steal it - problem is we don't know exactly what that critical margin is.

I guess the point of my post would simply be that we should not be too overconfident. If you feel insulted at the suggestion, I apologize, but I see a lot of people here joking about 'concern'.

[Poseidan]

25. election fraud????

Hahaha! Election fraud is as old as democracy itself. Both parties do it, so it all balances out (hopefully). Preferably though, one party would instead protect themselves and bait the other party (the Republican party) into exposing their cheat.

And if someone can make elections fraud-proof, please do.

[barack the house]

28. It's just not close enough I can't see it retreating close enough to steal.

[Cosmic Charlie]

29. what a waste of typing

[debatemoderator]

30. I'm afraid of the MSM

They might betrayed us at any moment when we are not looking.

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

35. Faster than Dominos -- arrived in under 13 minutes!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=user_profiles&u_id=229610

[iceman66]

33. Well, I tried.

I SINCERELY hope that I am wrong here, and that all of you are right!

[Afikpo Chic]

36. TROLL

YOU ARE A TROLL. RUN ALONG.

[CreekDog]

37. What the hell is your point?

You along with a bunch of other people that have been here around 1 MONTH keep telling us that the other side cheats and no matter the polls we might lose.

Totally unconstructive points that you and others are making multiple times daily.

You keep saying not to be overconfident and then you make points that suggest nothing we do will work anyway.

Just go away. Most of us who have been here longer than you have enough leeriness to last us a lifetime, we don't need you to tell us that it all might be pointless anyway.

Good bye. :hi:

[iceman66]

46. The point is

that we should not become overconfident despite the poll numbers because Republicans can and do cheat, with the complicity of the MSM. As others here have noted, we need to work like Obama is 10 points down.

I only posted this because I see so many, many posts ridiculing anyone who expresses any lever of 'concern'. If I offended you, I apologize.

[CreekDog]

48. we get told 100 times per day not to be overconfident

give me a break.

[MtUpWithWngsAsEgles]

40. Answers

ACORN is an issue because the Repubs need an excuse to suppress the votes. In all the swing states to say the least.

Bizarre because he can't run an effective campaign. Couldn't beat Bush and won't beat Obama.

Three is a mis-calculation. He is the Maverick remember. He didn't think he had to work for those votes. He thought he had them on lock.

McCain is having an identity crisis. People he has worked with for years are openingly saying they no longer know who he is.

[olegramps]

41. Write the media that you are concerned about

One thing that the media, CNN, MSNBC, newspapers will pay attention to is the amount of critical correspondence that they receive that threatens their viewer share. They are there to make money, so if you don't agree with their policy or the way they are handling an issue: WRITE, WRITE, WRITE.

[Phoonzang]

44. You're expressing reasonable doubts. That must mean you're a concern troll.

We only like fairies, beams of sunshine, and mindless optimism here at DU.

[iceman66]

47. Apparently so!

[Zynx]

49. I know this is rude considering how much effort you put in, but I dismiss this out of hand.

Senseless conjecture.

[iceman66]

52. That is your opinion and I respect your right to the same.

Again, I hope I am wrong.

At least you didn't call me a troll!

[rvablue]

51. I have to agree with you on the Iowa/Penn thing

it simply doesn't make any sense and it's not like he has amateurs running his campaign.

There are places where the race is much tighter -- such as Ohio and yes, even Virginia -- and it didn't make any sense for him to spend so much time in Iowa -- Iowa already has a fork stuck in it.

And why on earth Palin has now spent almost 4 entire days in Philadelphia is beyond me.

BUT, both McCain and Palin were here in Virginia today so they ARE spending time here, and on top of that, you can't turn on the TV, doesn't matter what channel or what time of day without seeing McCain ads (the same goes for Obama, though....)