What state might Obama win that would be a total shock?

[book_worm]

I don't know if it would be a total shock anymore but I'm thinking that Georgia with it's large African-American turnout and increased registration and already impressive early voting might be it. I'm even going to go out on a limb here. Barack Obama will win Georgia and Martin will be elected to the Senate.

[BlooInBloo]

1. West Virgina was my out-on-a-limb choice a few weeks ago...

I'm feeling good about it, as far as being out-on-a-limb goes.

[sazemisery]

2. My state - Oklahoma

Sad state of affairs.

[TTUBatfan2008]

14. LOL...

I swear, Oklahoma might be the most uninformed, conservative state in the Union. Don't get me wrong, we have a shitload of similar people here in Texas, but at least we have some large cities with informed voters to help balance that out a bit.

[Milspec]

53. I live in Tulsa

OK would be a shock but I see Obama signs 3 to 1 over McCain

[TTUBatfan2008]

55. Tulsa is what I'd consider similar to the big cities in Texas...

aka, plenty of informed voters in Tulsa. It's the rural area of the state, aka 95% of it, that's the problem. :(

[GrizzlyMan]

71. OK is not "95 percent" rural

The OKC metro area is 1.5 million and Tulsa's metro is close to 1 million. That's 2.5 million folks out of a population of about 3.3 million.

[Okie4Obama]

78. It has to do with fundamentalist Christianity.

The reason Oklahoma goes red is at least 30% of the state is Southern Baptist. I don't know the percentages for other denominations, but Oklahoma is very Evangelical, very Bible-Belt. People here have been brainwashed to think that abortion is the only issue. I know, I used to be one of the brainwashed, although I was Catholic. I still have intelligent but very uninformed friends who are good people but are voting for McCain because they believe Obama is for infanticide. I just send them to Matthew25.org and hope it makes a impact.

[vanderBeth]

22. Good luck with that

[lady raven]

80. No kidding!

A win here (Oklahoma) would be INCREDIBLE, but, sadly, next to impossible.

[TooRaLoo]

98. I hear ya.

Tulsan, here. :hi:

[Quixote1818]

3. I was thinking Georgia too. Texas would be a HUGE shock. nt

[Schulzz]

4. Of the states where the polls are close: Georgia and West Virginia for me. nt

[butterfly77]

5. Texas or West Virginia..

[McCCain4retirment]

27. California

[4lbs]

6. West Virginia, North Carolina, or Indiana.

Yeah, we've heard polling that says Obama is doing well in these states, but there's still an equal chance McCain will win them.

So, I'll be pleasantly "shocked" if Obama wins one or more of these states.

[ellacott]

7. Arizona

Followed by North Carolina. :)

[McCCain4retirment]

28. good one

that would be an amazing slap in the face to mcCain

[ruggerson]

8. Mississippi

[Clio the Leo]

90. Yep, given the history of the civil rights' movement, the 'sip would be a symbolic win. NT

[greenbriar]

Kansas

and it would be sweet as his grandparents are from here

[kswheels]

26. Agreed...

Hasn't gone Dem since LBJ. Wish it would, then my vote would count.

[SheilaT]

92. Yep, Kansas. But I think it's not totally impossible, and

here's why.

I participated in the caucus in Kansas in 2004. Approximately 1300 Democrats participated in the caucus statewide. At my location, only one participant was under 40, and she was 38. Most of us were between 50 and 65.

I also participated in the caucus in Kansas in 2008. It was Super Tuesday, and 130,000 Democrats participated, ten times as many. And we stood outside in snow, sleet, and freezing rain for up to three hours to caucus. And at my location, about 20% were under 25.

Four days later, on a mild Saturday, only 20,000 Republicans bothered to participate in their caucus statewide. This in a state that is famously very Republican.

That discrepancy still lingers in my mind. And that's why I think that it is distantly possible that Kansas might go blue. Of course, if it did, we can probably all make money selling ice skates in Hell.

[Tribetime]

9. Alaska

[yardwork]

67. I've been thinking that.

[dee15644]

10. Alaska, LOL

[Undercurrent]

11. West Virgina

[54anickel]

12. Texas!!!

[DarthDem]

13. Well . . .

Virginia and North Carolina will be pretty shocking themselves . . . but for a total jaw-dropper, I'll go with West Virginia. :-)

[Lisa0825]

15. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE TEXAS!!! He's sending Bill Clinton here, so

maybe internal polling says they have a shot!!! :woohoo:

[WolverineDG]

25. In my dreams I keep hearing

"Texas is too close to call."

:wow:

dg

[CarbonDate]

16. North Carolina would be a big enough shock.

Georgia would be fantastic. Some people are talking about Texas or Tennessee? I think they're dreaming; even Gore didn't carry Tennessee, and that's his home state.

[occe]

17. I believe that Obama will snag WV, TN and possibly OH...

I believe he will give McCain a run for his money in Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana, Iowa, Montana and Indiana as well.

[TxBlue]

18. Texas but Oklahoma even more shocking

Oklahoma did vote for a dem gov...my redder than red mom actually voted for dem gov..maybe first time in her life.

Texas with hispanics and more progressives has better chance. Bush not popular with many.

[vaberella]

19. Georgia....always that state. However Texas...wow. I'd be speechless. I called AK months ago. n/t

[Sebastian Doyle]

20. Utah!

That would even shock The Late Prophet Joseph Smith himself!

But if they're mad at McCain for passing over Romney for that empty headed Dominionist wolf slaughterer, then it's possible.

Granted, not likely. But possible. Who knows, they might all vote for Bob Barr in protest. If that's the case, I'll take it. Still electoral votes out of McCrazy's column.

[morillon]

40. Yes, Utah FTW! LOL! n/t

[elkston]

21. I would say Indiana, but that's moderately winnable now.

So I'll go with Georgia.

[Vincardog]

23. Texas

[sunnybrook]

24. Idaho

May not be in the cards but that would be a total shock!

[Left Is Write]

30. That would definitely be a shock.

I'm going to do my part to help it happen.

[Indiana_Dem]

29. Total shock would be my state--Indiana.

They're doing everything they can to suppress the vote. Sarah is coming to Indiana on Wednesday for a KKK rally. They're not letting them early vote in Lake County (from what I've read and heard). The terror-race card is digging in here. :(

[Phoonzang]

31. I'm thinking British Colombia or Nueva Leon.

[DeepBlueDem]

32. Alabama

Going for the jugular.

[mentalsolstice]

37. Hi, from B'ham, and welcome to DU!

I don't know about the whole state, but I'm betting a couple of congressional districts will go blue, particularly Artur Davis'.

[faithfulcitizen]

96. that's mine too. Texas would be pretty cool as well.

[Blue_In_AK]

33. Alaska

There seems to be some indication that the personnel board investigation that Sarah initiated, presumably to clear herself of any wrongdoing, may be completed before the election. I'm sure she thought she was safe with that one, but it turns out the independent investigator, Tim Petumenos, is a Democrat who supported Tony Knowles in 2006, unlike the "partisan" Republican Steve Branchflower who conducted the legislative investigation. Ooops.....

From Newsweek...

McCain campaign spokeswoman Meg Stapleton dismissed the report as the product of "a partisan-led inquiry run by Obama supporters." But there could be more land mines ahead. Some weeks ago, the McCain team devised a plan to have Palin file an ethics complaint against herself with the State Personnel Board, arguing that it alone was capable of conducting a fair, nonpartisan inquiry into whether she fired Monegan because he refused to fire Wooten, who had been involved in a messy custody battle with her sister. Some Democrats ridiculed the move, noting that the personnel board answered to Palin. But the board ended up hiring an aggressive Anchorage trial lawyer, Timothy Petumenos, as an independent counsel. McCain aides were chagrined to discover that Petumenos was a Democrat who had contributed to Palin's 2006 opponent for governor, Tony Knowles. Palin is now scheduled to be questioned next week, and the counsel's report could be released soon after. "We took a gamble when we went to the personnel board," said a McCain aide who asked not to be identified discussing strategy. While the McCain camp still insists Palin "has nothing to hide," it acknowledges a critical finding by Petumenos would be even harder to dismiss.



This can't be good for the McCain/Palin campaign here in Alaska. Words like "recall" and "impeach" are cropping up ever more frequently. :evilgrin:

[TxBlue]

47. I want Texas but Alaska would be a Beeauutiful State Blue!

[Spider Jerusalem]

34. Georgia would be a shock

I think it might happen, though; if right-wing dissatisfaction with McCain continues to grow over these next few weeks, Bob Barr could putperform his poll numbers. And record-breaking African-American turnout in a state where 31% of the population is black, and 99% of black voters support Obama, is going to make a huge difference here; possibly enough to tip the scales.

[Faygo Kid]

79. Yep, Georgia. Saxby Chambliss is in a much tighter race than expected. That would be a shocker.

If it happens, Obama gets to 400 electoral votes. Seriously.

[Number23]

94. Go Georgia! Go Georgia!!

I've used this exact same title for like, five different posts. But I'm so proud of my home state.

I did my part to put Obama and Martin in office. Saxby is going DOWWNN!!!

Georgia might surprise the hell out of the whole damn country this year. Oh, please let it be so!!

[AlinPA]

35. WV.

[stuntcat]

36. North Carolina

I'll be partying extra if NC goes blue!! :party:

[BelleCarolinaPeridot]

42. Me too.

[bowens43]

56. then prepare yourself, Obama is going to win NC.

there's little doubt of that now.

[stuntcat]

57. I'm already so excited about that

For real, I'll have so much extra excitement and pride! I better get TWO bottles of champagne, one for the US and one for NC :headbang:

[BelleCarolinaPeridot]

72. I get so excited about the the thought of that.

Let it ring true.

[morillon]

38. I second that.

Barr will pull some votes from McCain, and conventional business-type Republicans will either vote for Obama or stay home. I've said for weeks that it'll be 50/40/10 Obama/McCain/Barr.

I think you're right about Martin, too. Polling even with Chambliss means Martin's ahead, given the big disparity between Democrats and Republicans among brand spanking new voters.

[nomorewhopper]

39. ARIZONA

HOME OF MCCAIN

[darius15]

41. DC.

[Erin Elizabeth]

43. UTAH.

:rofl:

Weirdest place on earth. Just try to find a non-white person there.

[morillon]

44. If he wins Utah...

...then we're looking at a 50-state blowout. He absolutely has a chance to win Georgia. My biggest worry here is those piece of shit Diebold machines.

[occe]

45. Obama will snag Utah on Nov. 4

even if the polls aren't close, I think Obama can win in Utah on Election Day.

[morillon]

How so?

What's the voter registration in Utah looking like? In my experience, younger LDS folks are way more open-minded than the older ones, and those I know are vehemently anti-racist.

[mwooldri]

50. I'm worried about them here too in NC.

Well they're not Diebold, they're ES&S ones... but our county still uses those touch-screen voting machines, albeit with a paper trail.

Next door in Forsyth they're using optical scanners.

I have more faith in the optical scanners than the touchscreens because with the scanners it should be reading something I know I marked. With the touchscreens, I might have pressed Obama but it still could register a McCrypt vote. And print it on the trail as if I did indeed vote for McCrypt.

of course my voting here is hypothetical... I'm still glad in UK we use paper ballots with organic optical scanners. (human eyes!)

Mark.

[ITsec]

46. South Dakota. Everyone here is still convinced Obama will steal their guns. n/t

[existentialist]

86. nice to see someone new from South Dakota.

[FloridaGrl]

48. Texas

[progressivebydesign]

49. I call Texas. n/t

[DeadManInc]

51. West Virginia

[Malikshah]

52. I'm not a pessimist, but Florida. There, I said it. Florida in Obama's column would be a happy

shock to me.

I am preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best. 2000 and 2004 are two wounds that are still fresh in my psyche.

Every state is a must win in my book, as too much is at stake.

No quarter and no rest until we win! :)

[occe]

54. I applaud your honesty

[progressiveforever]

59. Right, we can't underestimate the power of Florida back in our column

That would thrill me.

[progressiveforever]

58. Arizona--it's possible. Idaho---ok maybe not Idaho

:-)

[occe]

61. Idaho is possible for Obama.

[progressiveforever]

62. You're quite an optimist, but I hope you're right and I'm dead wrong

I can't see it happening, but I'll take it.

[occe]

76. :)

:) I don't think Obama will win Idaho handily, but if his followers come out strong, Obama will win Idaho by 6%+

[RBInMaine]

60. Indiana, West Virginia, North Carolina, or Montana

[progressiveforever]

63. Any of those, especially Indiana or Virginia

They didn't even go for Clinton--you have to go back to LBJ to turn Virginia blue. I'm not sure when Indiana was last blue. Did they go for Carter in 1976?

[Left 0f Center]

64. Texas

[Compline]

66. WV...but Texas would be nice!

I'd be happy seeing him carry WV, and the polls are looking good in that regard. Seeing my own state of Texas go blue this year would make my decade, but there's little hope of that this election cycle.

I do, however, have a bottle of '98 Etude Cabernet waiting to be popped open Nov 4 in celebration of an Obama electoral landslide!

[occe]

68. Obama will win West Virginia and will either win Texas by 1-3% or lose by 5-6%

:bounce:

[Odin2005]

65. West Virginia. n/t

[Motown_Johnny]

69. Montana.. or part of Nebraska... both are possible and either would be shocking

[fizzgig]

70. i will fall over if colorado goes to obama

yeah, from what i've seen, he's polling anywhere from four to 10 percent up, but i'm not discounting the eastern plains. we've got a good liberal base along the front range north of denver, but i'm not going to believe it until i see it. but there are, i have no doubt, many, many people out there who would still pay money to fellate * et al.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

73. Indiana! With the loss of congressional seats in 2006 and Obama's near-win during the primaries,

I think that'll be the big one!

Actually, there are so many: GA, ND, NV and Arizona! Yeah, I said it: A.R.I.Z.O.N.A!!!

[codjh9]

74. Texas, but since we're at 38% on the Yahoo composite right now, I'm not holding my breath - BUT

I do think we may - repeat MAY - do a little better than that.

[ChipperbackDemocrat]

75. My hometown would be my shocker

2nd Congressional District -- Nebraska. That's 1 Electoral Vote I'd love to see in our column :)

Obamaha, Nebraska....YES WE CAN!

[rainbow4321]

82. I think he will do better than some of the polls are saying

I just wanna hear the talking heads say TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

But these are the same talking heads who for weeks leading up to our primary were all over the "TX 2 step" primary and then on our primary night as they called the state for HRC those words were NEVER uttered. Ever. How conveniently they forgot that the primary votes counted that night only accounted for HALF of the TX primary results. Too bad that when they officially called it for her on TV that night, mine and millions of other caucus votes were probably still sitting UNcounted in precinct captains' car trunks (if they had even LEFT the caucus sites yet)
What do we find out later..gee, HE won our the caucus half, giving him, in the end, more TX overall delegates than HRC. But by then, the talking heads had moved on to the next state and TX was never mentioned again.
SO, given, their history with our state, I don't even expect the words "too close to call" to ever be said no matter what the numbers show on election night.

On the bright side:
I drove thru a spot in Dallas that had tons of Bush signs in 2004. This weekend the Obama/Biden signs on that same stretch of street outnumbered McLame's by 5 to 1.

Wearing an Obama shirt out in public gets people's attention as they pass by. Either look-at-the-shirt-and-give-a-grin or I get an outright "I like your shirt". Just came back from the movies and I heard a little girl's voice from behind me say to someone "That's the fifth Obama shirt I've seen".


Here is hoping that Dallas area, Ft Worth, Austin, and other urban TX areas go bright blue enough to off somewhat set the red spots.

[Sorceress]

77. North Carolina

North Carolina's demo has been steadily changing. The research triangle has been expanding and there are a lot of "transplants" in the area who are not easily fooled by the right wing rhetoric. That, along with the AA population, gives me hope that they will represent this year!

[javadu]

81. Arkansas

Democrats control the state. Why can't presidential candidates win here? I think it will be a surprise.

[chiefofclarinet]

83. Good shock or stunning shock?

Good shock: Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Georgia.

Stunning shock: ALL of Nebraska (2nd district is totally doable), Kansas, Utah, Alaska

[Bubbha Jo]

84. Wish he'd win mine.... Arkansas! n/t

[existentialist]

85. last poll on Georgia that I saw

had Obama three points behind and the Senate race was tied.

[trashcanistanista]

87. Georgia would be a total shock,

but Alaska would be the sweetest!

[Awsi Dooger]

88. None

There's no such thing as a total shock in a presidential election, a state voting many points outside it's projected level. If Obama has a big national lead, it naturally yanks states that otherwise would oppose him, but it won't be a shock.

Georgia is a pipe dream. That state always polls more favorably to Democrats than it votes. I'm going to steal some quick interest by playing McCain and Chambliss in Georgia on Intrade.

[aaaaaa5a]

89. Almost all of Indiana is in the Eastern Time Zone...

If Indiana is "too close to call" early into the evening on election night, Obama is going to win (Nationwide) in a landslide!

[Top Cat]

91. I live in Georgia and it would be a major upset

[mvd]

93. At this point, getting Arkansas or Louisiana would be a nice shock

Georgia would be surprising, too.

[Siyahamba]

95. North Dakota.

Fully Democratic congressional delegation; some polls had Obama ahead earlier this summer...

[Stop Cornyn]

97. Texas (next choice Georgia, next Montana)

[Ediacara]

99. Omaha

Okay, it's not a state, but it is an electoral vote.

[gingersnaps1]

100. I saw a map that had Mississippi and Georgia as light pink or weak McCain states

and i just couldn't believe it. I don't believe it because I have seen no other polling that backs them up. If it were to happen, Mississippi and Georgia go for Obama, I think I would need immediate resuscitation.

[Blondiegrrl]

101. West Virginia. n/t

[BlueIris]

102. North Carolina.

Most NCers I know remember with great pain how ROBBED they were by election fraud in '04. They are still super-pissed about it.

[Skip Intro]

103. NC would be a shock, GA would be a total shock, SC - abulances would be overwhelmed.

I know, I know, SC is well, SC, but it is my state, and damn, I can dream.

And icing - lyndsey graham would be outta here too.


But if the polls close and NC is called for Obama, hang on, 'cuz we're in the midst of a voter tsunami.