Mason Dixon (Repub pollster) Nevada: Obama 47, McWallace 45

[darius15]

In a presidential race that remains essentially tied in Nevada, Democrat Barack Obama has the slimmest of leads over Republican John McCain, according to a new Review-Journal poll.

Obama had the support of 47 percent of likely Nevada voters in the poll, while McCain had 45 percent. The result was within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points in the poll of 625 likely voters statewide.
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Just 2 percent of those surveyed chose a candidate other than Obama or McCain, while 6 percent remained undecided. The poll was conducted by telephone Wednesday and Thursday, after Tuesday's second debate between the two candidates, by Washington, D.C.-based polling firm Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.

"It's still really, really close," Mason-Dixon managing partner Brad Coker said of the race for Nevada's five electoral votes. "Obama has a little bit of a lead, but it's not as wide as his lead in most of the national polls. Nevada's still very much a battleground, very close and very interesting."

With undecided voters choosing sides as the election nears, the plummeting economy is overwhelmingly at the front of their minds, the poll found. And although the two candidates are in what amounts to a statistical tie, Obama has gained major ground since the Review-Journal's last poll of the race, taken in August.

In the August poll, McCain led Obama by a 46 percent to 39 percent margin, with 15 percent undecided.

"Since that time, the undecided number has shrunk by 9 percent and pretty much the entire swing has gone to Obama," noted Mark Peplowski, a political scientist at the College of Southern Nevada. Unless something happens to take the focus off the dismal state of the economy, he said, he would expect the trend to continue to favor Obama.

"All other things being equal, undecideds tend to swing toward the candidate they view as an instrument of change," he said. "If you were to take another survey this weekend, you would probably find an even bigger bump for Obama."

With McCain's level of support in the state remaining basically steady, however, "Nevada continues to be an independent, can't-be-labeled state in this race," Peplowski said. "Nevada is one of the seven states that McCain and Obama are going to fight to the death over from now until Nov. 4."

Asked what issue would most determine their vote in the poll, respondents put huge emphasis on the economy and jobs, with 71 percent giving that answer. In normal times, it's rare to see a single issue chosen by more than 30 percent as the No. 1 concern.

The war in Iraq, national security, energy and health care lagged behind at under 10 percent apiece.

However, preoccupation with the economy didn't appear to be giving either candidate an advantage. Asked which they trusted more to handle the issue, voters were split dead even, with 46 percent saying Obama and 46 percent saying McCain.

On questions about who was to blame for the economic situation, about as many of those surveyed said Democrats in Congress (40 percent) as tagged the Bush administration and Republicans (38 percent). Nevada is different in that regard from other parts of the country that have mostly laid the crisis at the feet of the GOP, said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst for the Cook Political Report, a Washington-based nonpartisan newsletter.

"The fact of the matter is they're both to blame," she said of the two political parties. "But Democrats have done a better job of putting it in the Republicans' lap and Republicans have done a terrible job of defending themselves. Except, perhaps, in Nevada."

Demographic breakdowns of Nevadans' presidential preference were consistent with previous Review-Journal and national polls. Men preferred McCain, 50 percent to 42 percent, while women preferred Obama, 52 percent to 40 percent.

"Women clearly are not flocking to the Republican ticket just because they have a woman on it," Peplowski said of McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. "I don't think Palin is going to make a significant impact on the race at this point, except for maybe a negative impact."

Nevadans had a more favorable view of Palin than her counterpart on the Democratic ticket, Sen. Joe Biden, but just barely. Palin was viewed favorably by 47 percent of respondents, to Biden's 44 percent. Their unfavorable ratings were within one point, Palin at 40 percent to Biden's 39 percent. Obama and McCain were even in the favorable category -- 46 percent for each -- but Obama had a slightly higher unfavorable rating, 42 percent to 37 percent.

McCain and Obama each had the support of about 80 percent of their respective parties. Among independent voters, McCain had the slight edge in a near-tie, 45 percent to 43 percent.

White voters favored McCain, 50 percent to 41 percent, while blacks favored Obama, 93 percent to 5 percent. Hispanics, a group the candidates have both worked to court, favored Obama by a 20-point margin, 57 percent to 37 percent.

A clear generational gap was apparent in the poll, with Obama, 47, favored by younger voters and McCain, 72, by older voters. Voters age 18 to 34 preferred Obama by 16 points, and those between the ages of 35 and 49 preferred the Democrat by 5 points.

Fifty- to 64-year-old voters chose McCain by 4 points, and those 65 and older picked the Republican by 7 points.

The poll's geographic breakdown showed that the Reno area may be the true battleground of this election in Nevada.

In Clark County, the Democratic stronghold that is home to more than 70 percent of the state's population, Obama led by 50 percent to 42 percent. Just as predictably, McCain led in rural Nevada, 55 percent to 38 percent.

But in Washoe County, once a Republican stronghold, McCain had 46 percent of the vote, Obama 45 percent.

"The rural areas are McCain country; Clark County's going for Obama," pollster Coker said. "Washoe's the real toss-up part of the state right now."

http://www.lvrj.com/news/30860574.html