Can someone please explain to me....

[Liberalboy]

the difference between "inside" polls (the one the candidates know) and regular polling (the ones we know?) Is there a difference? For example, people say McCain pulled out of MI due to internal numbers or that Obama is winning MS on internal numbers.

Thanks in advance!

[iceman66]

1. Internal numbers

are polls that the campaigns conduct or commission themselves and do not release to the public.

[hedgehog]

2. I have no authority in this area, but my assumption is that the inside

polls are so detailed (white single mothers with 12 college credits think that crunchy peanut butter is best) that the campaigns can figure out if they're likely to change any minds.

[FrenchieCat]

3. I'm just guessing here.....

But insider polls are most likely targeted, not just at a state, but specified geographical and demographical specifics. Such a poll would provide, when put up with prior election result, information of how a candidate is doing in his strongholds, as well how they may be doing in the opponents' stronghold, and how the opponent is doing there as well.

e.g., If past results showed that Tarp county was historically a heavy GOP area with past candidates winning by 68%, and a poll is conducted showing the opponent leading by only 52%, mathematically, this would inform that the state can be won, but attention has to be given to this and that particular area. This is one of the ways that the Obama camp determines where to hold rallies, what market to advertise in, etc.... An example would be Echo County in Nevada. It appears that if Obama can win this county by a certain percentage, he can win the state. He has been there 3 times for that reason....and I'm sure that information was culled from internals. Those internals also provide a breakdown on demographics as well, and gives additional information on how to pinpoint the campaign's planning process.

Again, I'm just guessing, so this post may be full of shit. :)