Are we witnessing the final death knell

[hogwyld]

of the party of Lincoln? We all know that the current form of the GOP cannot survive. Between the wacko fundies, the racists, the corporate wing, the military wing, and the anti-immigration, anti-poor wings. What do you see as the future of the GOP?

[sasquatch]

1. We're experiencing the exhaustion of conservatism

Thank Christ.

[sandnsea]

2. The "Party of Lincoln" died with Lincoln n/t

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. Other: They will grow as a populist racist isolationst theocratic party

A conpendium of every irresponsible ideology.

Never count the nut-right out too quickly in economic hard times.

[hogwyld]

23. Of the remaining independent parties

Who do you think could fill that void?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

26. You mean the moderate globalist financial Republican void?

I expect those people to become Dem leaning independents

[BrklynLiberal]

4. They will go into the wilderness, but they will take the country with them...

There will be chaos, violence and tragedy.

They will not give up their goal to have power...even if it means destroying the country along the way.

This is my worst case scenario...and the barracuda seems to be doing her best to make it a reality.

[hogwyld]

16. That is my ultimate fear

Is that if they can't control the country, then no one should. I see them taking extreme actions to fracture this country even further.

[BrklynLiberal]

30. I truly hope that we are both unduly pessimistic.....

:hi: :scared:

[baldguy]

5. The GOP hasn't been the Party of Lincoln for 40 yrs at least

[gravity]

There will be a future if the democrats move further to the left

but with the current state of the country, it will be a while

[WeDidIt]

6. The Republican Party has been taken over by the fringe lunatics

The moderate elements are jumping ship in droves.

The power base within the party is now the fringe lunatices.

They are splintering into at least three categories. The Neo-Cons that held power beleived they could control the theo-cons. The choice of Sarah Palin has turned that belief on it's head. Sarah Palin is now the head of the GOP and that is not changing any time soon.

My prediction: The Libertarian Party under Bob Barr will now become the mainstream conservative party in this nation. It'll take ten years, but the Republican Party as we knew it is now dead.

[kurt_cagle]

41. I'd agree with that

Modern Republican party began in the early 1970s with the consolidation of the banking business class, the cold warriors and the Blue Dog Dixiecrats (religious conservatives) all finding common ground - the Dixiecrats jumping from the Democratic party because of civil and women's rights issues. The cold warriors eventually became the NeoCons.

At this point, the banking class is quickly unravelling as the financial markets melt down, and the day will come in the not too distant future where people will be anxious about even trusting their checking accounts to them. The religious right's successes spurred the development of a religious left - still faithful, but far more like the religious Democratic movements in the 1930s and early 1940s, and the religious right is becoming increasingly infected with "end times" mania that make them unstable as a political base. The NeoCons have the US stranded in two wars, have alienated allies all over the world and have, far from shrinking government, dramatically increased it.

In all of this, the Libertarians, who are essentially the descendants of the original fiscal conservatives that made up the Republican party in the 1950s, have gained increasing traction through the 1990s and 2000s (Ross Perot's populism was a form of Libertarianism). So I'd say your estimates are about right - the Libertarians will pick up the conservative leaning moderates, while the Dems will pick up the "civil libertarian" faction. My guess is that 2010 will determine whether the religious right or the libertarians control the shots, and there will be internecine warfare between the two until one or the other becomes dominant (which I suspect will be the Libertarians).

[melody]

7. The GOP will split off into different parties

I don't think the political divide can sustain two parties any longer. The true conservatives are going to have to jettison the Klan and Neocon elements to survive.

[FKA MNChimpH8R]

44. Agreeing, here

Someone is going to have to go. There was never any common interest among the Reagan coalition. The neocons and financial royalists used the fundymentalpatients for their own ends and never had any intention of Dominionizing the country, only looting it and using the military to secure empire.

My guess is that the fundys get edged out and start their own openly fascistic/theocon party over the next ten years, the neocons gradually retreat, Fukuyama-like, to more moderate positions and join up with the currently-discredited economic royalists to form a new center right party. The problem for them is that they're not enough to win anything when taken together.

Something is going to have to give over in Crazyland. Even when it does, a reconstituted and more moderate Republican party is going to have one hell of a time putting itself back into anything philosophically coherent enough to win the Presidency for quite a while. Their only hope of remaining relevant is a return to the moderate, pragmatic conservatism of an Eisenhower, Ford, and (dare I say it?) Nixon.

[XemaSab]

51. I think it will be the fundies that leave the party

not because they're jettisoned, but voluntarily.

They voted for Bush as "one of them," and it hasn't done shit for their cause. Palin is being offered as the bait this time, but I'd guess that quite a few fundies secretly think a woman shouldn't be leading the party, but instead staying home with the kids.

[melody]

52. I don't know, the fundies are pretty deep GOP apparatchik

And they have their grip around the money system.

I think the conservatives will leave.

[XemaSab]

53. The fundies have been the useful idiots of the GOP for 20+ years

Every republican runs on abortion, and every republican does shit about it.

It's a bait and switch, and at some point they're going to get wise.

[Barrymores Ghost]

8. Lincoln's spinning in his grave so fast, you could use him as a centrifuge.

He'd disown the Republican Party of today faster than you could say "rail-splitter."

While surrogates will continue to hammer away at obama, the party will have to at least feign moderation, if they are to ever financially survive. There is serious campaign finance reform on the horizon (that will come with a Democratic majority), so they won't be able to count on that corporate largess like they used to, to keep them viable. And, the existing Repug base is too old or too poor to continue supporting them at a grass-roots level in a sustainable fashion. Youth is tending toward Progressivism.

Evolve, or become extinct. Simple Darwinism.

[ingac70]

9. I chose "permanent, but vitriolic minority"

the fundies make up most of it and are not going to let go.

[patrice]

10. They will return to "Moderation" after hitting bottom. Those quotation marks are important.

[WinkyDink]

12. Never. They have come back from Goldwater's ignominious defeat, to be even worse.

[patrice]

13. Hence, the quotation marks; they and the media will call it Moderate, but it will NOT be so.

[Barrymores Ghost]

14. Exactly my point, above...

...they'll label it as such, in order to attract more folks to replace those in their base that are dying of old age or who slip too far beneath the poverty line to make a dent in their coffers anymore.

But the nastiness and the graft and the election fraud will be ratcheted up....and it will be constant.

[hogwyld]

24. I don't think a lot of people realize

how old the GOP has become. Demographics are definitely not in their favor.

[FKA MNChimpH8R]

48. The Republican Party is looking at a demographic death warrant

Remember the KKKonvention? Incredibly white. Incredibly old. A few token African-Americans, Asians and Latinos. The next generation will see this country's look change dramatically. It will become younger and browner. College kids today associate the Godawful Old Party with one thing - the complete failure of the Chimperor. They've lost an entire generation. If Obama is a successful president, they will lose the next generation as well.

As people of Latino, Asian, A-A, and bi/multi-racial descent continue to increase in number, the Repuke base will shrink more every election cycle. Had the GOP moved back towards a modern version of Eisenhower/Ford Republicanism, they would have a chance at getting to a reasonable share of the coming generation or two of voters. They instead chose to keep running against the Roosevelts - yes, both of them - and tried to revive some unholy mash-up of the Gilded Age, mindless idiot religious frenzy, and Know-Nothing-ism. Bad choice, Repukes. And you are now looking at your own demographic extinction.

[WinkyDink]

11. They will attack Obama in the media Every. Single. Day. "Day 33; What Has He Accomplished Yet?"

Every day.

They will ask phony questions, to get a topic in the news: "Do we REALLY know what Michelle tells her husband?"

[Essene]

15. Ironically... Mccain was their last hope at "moderation." GOP will be stuck in cultural war now

At some point, the party will split.

We all know it.

Fiscal conservatives who are more cosmopolitan and worldly understand that this is a self-destructive, unamerican phenomenon driven by anti-intellectualism and fear. That phenomenon leads to nothing good, and they know it.

[hogwyld]

18. I never understood their hate

for smart people. I do see a number of republicans leaving for other parties such as the libertarian etc.

[Essene]

34. it isnt a republican thing... it's an american thing...

[Spider Jerusalem]

37. That's not all Republicans, just the loudest ones.

They decided quite a while back that the path to political victory and power lay in exploiting the ignorance, fear and prejudice of uneducated rural white religious fanatics. They've made social/cultural issues the driving and dominant force of their campaign strategy ever since Nixon, with varying degrees of success; in favour of 'state's rights' and against things like school busing and welfare (which is just coded racism); against abortion, against gay rights, etc; their strategy, election after election, has been to whip these poor ignorant fuckers into a frenzy over these cultural and social issues, while their paychecks dwindle and their children's futures grow that a bit dimmer; the GOP have been very successful at convincing a lot of people to vote against their own economic self-interest by demagoguing certain issues. Only the ignorant and insane are outnumbered, so now what will they ddo? They've backed themselves into a corner by following a path that is guaranteed to turn them into a minority party.

[Uzybone]

17. Theyve taken the Southern Strategy

and made it their national strategy.

They will be come a regional party, only relevant in the Big Sky states (Dakotas, Idaho ,Wy etc) and the deep south.

[hogwyld]

21. But they're losing the south as well

Look at VA, NC, and GA. The polls either have us leading, or within striking distance. Once the country sees what a great president Obama is, a lot of preconceived notions will die.

[foxfeet]

19. Well, with a reanimated corpse as their current candidate...

they'll NEVER go away. Just like the brain-sucking zombies.

[tpi10d]

20. after 30-40 years of watching politics....I don't know

Its clear they're out of gas... I don't see any rising stars in their system. They've pretty much exhausted the "Reagan Revolution." Demographics aren't favorable over the long haul.

I suppose the next thing to watch is if Obama wins in landslide and Democrats pick up congressional seats.

How the Republicans react I can't predict. One scenario is the Democrats run a centrist government (which could be frustrating to many of us), and the republicans are stuck at 35-40% minority fringe-keeping their existing factions. OTOH the republicans could push harder for the center and ditch some of the rw extremists. I suspect if they want to survive over the next 20 years this will be the road they take.

These are interesting times...

[hogwyld]

22. Very interesting point on demographics

As the older republicans go, maybe some of their more vitriolic elements will be replaced by more centrist policies.

[trudyco]

25. SInce I can't figure out how they exist today..

What does a gun totin' dude have to do with an ultra rich, corrupt Fat Cat?
What does a Fundie have to do with the rich Fat Cats that put soft porn on the Fundies' kids TV?
Why didn't Fundies and gun lovers and the xenophobes and the military scream out at the tax breaks the corporations and Fat Cats got?

It still blows my mind how these various groups banded together to form the Republican Party.

So even if they implode I'll never say never.

[Barrymores Ghost]

28. The GOP is basically made up of three different types:

1) The wealthy and powerful, who have a vested interested in preserving profit margins and increasing dividends and in eliminating any obstacles.

2) The foamy-mouthed religious fundamentalists who'd force everyone into subservience to their beliefs.

3) The intellectually incapable/lazy who'd rather not be bothered with thinking for themselves.

Those in the first catagory are not great enough in number to make up for the vote count they need to install officials who would perpetuate their profit-making schemes, so they speak to groups #2 and #3 in languages that they can understand. They whip them into a frenzy by telling them that Democrats are going to take away the few piddling things in this life they have to call their own. The former promises things that they never intend to deliver, but the latter two don't care because, at the end of the day, the former is still the only one making those promises -- regardless of whether there's ever any payoff.

The Repug fundies and the white trash are like the prototypical abused spouses that keep coming back for another beating -- because "he's really a good person at heart...he's gonna change...he says he loves me," etc., etc., etc. And, by allying themselves with Group #1, they're offered at least the illusion of having some power and influence in their otherwise empty, abused and meaningless existence.

(edit on typos)

[hogwyld]

39. Excellent analysis, but I would add one more

The immigrant hating, rather xenophobic racists that think if you ain't white, you ain't right idiots out there.

[Barrymores Ghost]

40. Ahh...but since that is a qualifying trait of all of the first three....

...does it count as an official "group?"

[hogwyld]

42. Yeah, I guess you're right

It's probably in their plank somewhere.

[stillcool]

27. I think they'll do like Diebold did..

change their name

[AndyTiedye]

29. They Are Stirring Up Their "Base" For Something Really Ugly

[chiefofclarinet]

31. Other: They'll go into the wilderness for 40 years and let this current generation of GOP die

[TheKentuckian]

32. I can't call it.

Its disappointing that their next generation is just as ridiculous as the current one, so I honestly think that they need to go into the wilderness until their whole current bullpen is thinned out.

Seriously, even their youngest, best, and brightest are loons. Their new voters don't care about any political philosophy as such, and tend to be single issue voters that buy into whatever else is on the buffet in order to support the one position. They also as a party are in real need of an assessment of who they are, their whole basis has been proven to be a crushing failure. I think they've outlived their usefulness because they seeded their niches to the Libertarians and our own right wing.

Their base only wants to do things that are at odds with either being a political party or with our entire system. You can't be a real political party when you wish to destroy government and you aren't working within the American system to attempt to establish a state religion by codifying their own beliefs, based purely on those beliefs and devoid of any level of secular reasoning. You can't be a group devoted to protecting and operating our government when one of your prime objectives is to suppress civil liberties and opportunities.

Its also very difficult to reform or adapt when you abhor thinking, questioning, and discovery. How can you find new answers when you have declared yourself correct based on your own correctness? When hypothesis and conclusion are the same you can always get the answer you want.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

33. Other: I'd be careful making such predictions.

People thought we were toast after 2004. It wouldn't take a whole lot to see their resurgence.

That said, I think by 2012, we'll have gotten the country on a positive track (note: I didn't say fixed, because that'll take a lot longer,) and I think the remaining GOP members will be listening more to the Newt Gingrichs and Tom DeLays of the world, who will be saying the same tripe a lot of DUers were in 2004 (that we must be an opposition party and block everything humanly possible and become extremely conservative.) The combo, in my belief, will tank the GOP for a good 20 years.

[mvd]

35. After Obama wins and we get 60 votes in the Senate..

I think the Repuke Party might splinter. You could have the moderates (Chafee, Snowe,) the social conservatives/fundies (like Palin,) the neocons and hawks (Cheney, Bush, McCain,) and the fiscal conservatives (like Ron Paul, Hagel.)

[Yavin4]

36. The Demographic Trend Alone Works Against The Republican Party

They've become the party of the angry, White, Christians.

[hogwyld]

38. Don't forget old

Just the natural act of attrition will shrink their numbers every year.

[Yavin4]

43. It's Fox News vs MSNBC

Yes, Fox has the larger overall audience but Rachel and Keith have the money demo. They have the younger, more affluent, and better educated viewer. This is the demo that advertisers drool over.

[qwlauren35]

45. Maybe they need to split.

And maybe the Democrats also need to split.

I think that fiscal conservatives/die-hard capitalists need their own party, and moral conservatives should have a separate one.

I also think that progressive Dems and conservative Dems have very little in common other than discomfort with Republican control of government.

I find myself wondering, if the parties split, whether more of us "independents" would migrate toward the new parties.

The Republican/Capitalist party, the Morality/Traditionalist party, the Progressive party, the Democratic/Equality Party, the Green Party, the Libertarian party... and the Socialist party.

I think I'd be more comfortable with more choices...

It's virtually impossible to run for a major office without the backing of some party. But there are many of us who just don't fit into the main two that are available.

[qwlauren35]

46. The same was said of Dems 4 years ago,,, and 4 months ago.

Anyone remember what happened in May & June???

[grantcart]

47. They are in for some very dark times and possibly extinction

The main difference between now and 1964 is that with Goldwater that there was an ideological point that could be built on and an inspirational figure - Reagan - who could build on that.

They are now left without an ideological point and an inspirational leader.


The religious right will take over much of the state by state posts and the rest will move away either to Libertarians or become indpendents.


The real problem for Republicans will be that they won't have people running for down ticket offices in blue and purple areas and their future leaders will not be there.


They will get more and more far right in the rural areas and lose their middle.

[XemaSab]

49. I think we might see a split in the party

between the economic conservatives, and the social conservatives.

I don't think it's a marriage that will end in anything but divorce and heartache.

[mtnester]

50. Never, EVER count them out

down yes, never out


Sheesh, if they did not vanish after Nixon and Raygun and Bush x2...need I say more?