My thoughts on the electoral map...10/10/08

[Pab Sungenis]

It's often said in electoral politics that if you're going to peak early, you want to peak in October. That way, if you can build up enough of a lead, the inevitable tightening of the race in the last weeks won't be enough to close the gap.

Looking at the map at electoral-vote.com this morning, I'm going to go out on a limb. I hope I'm wrong, but I think Obama has peaked.

And you know what? It doesn't change anything. I still think he's going to win.

Looking at today's map, the electoral race is 343-184, with Missouri listed as an exact tie. I'd love to see Obama walk away with 343, 354, or even 369 electoral votes (which he would have if both Missouri and North Carolina flipped back into his column) but I don't think that will happen. Here's how I think things are going to turn out:

• Obama holds all the Kerry states. I think this is a given now. None of Kerry's states is turning red this year, not even New Hampshire.


• Obama wins Virginia. He's built up too strong a lead there, and McCain is ceding half the state to him already. There's also a reverse-coattail effect from Mark Warner's senate run. Virginia is trending too solidly blue for McCain to win it.
  
• Obama loses West Virginia. Stereotypes are based in truths. It may be blue on today's map, but I will be pleasantly shocked, not just pleasantly surprised, if West Virginia votes for a black candidate for President.


• Obama loses North Carolina. This is the state that kept Jesse Helms in the Senate. It may be trending toward Obama, but not only hasn't he "sealed the deal" here, there never really was a deal to seal. McCain gets this one by 5 points.


• Obama loses Florida. Latinos may be going for Obama, but the ultra-radical Cuban population in Florida won't. McCain will blanket the state with ads about how Obama will meet with Raul Castro with no preconditions. Plus there's the electronic fraud factor. Which brings us to...


• Obama loses Ohio. The new SOS's reforms will be too late. Plus, look for a big GOP GOTV effort in the most conservative parts of the state. McCain's efforts won't be enough in "Pennsyltucky," won't win him PA, but "Ohiosippi" will be enough to tip the state when all is factored in.


• Obama loses Indiana. Come on, it's Indiana. It was a dream to think we could compete there.


• Obama loses Colorado but by a nail biter. Again, look for heavy Republican GOTV to close the gap.


• Obama wins New Mexico. Latino vote and Bush fatigue will move this one back to Blue.


• Obama loses Missouri in another nail biter. The Republicans have a good ground game in many states, and it may be enough to keep this one red.

By my reckoning, that gives us a worst-case scenario of 278 electoral votes and a win.

Again, I hope I'm wrong and we run the board on the states I listed, but even if we don't, I think we've got a good solid win here no matter whan McCombover does from here on. If Obama has peaked, he's peaked at the proper time.

[WeDidIt]

1. Obama hasn't peaked yet

The market continues crashing. Troopergate drops a bomb today. Obama has thirty minutes in Prime Time on October 29.

Obama has nowhere near peaked yet.

[tekisui]

2. People have accused him of "peaking" since last December.

I disagree with you on CO, NC, and FL.

I am not sure about IN, yet.

[Pab Sungenis]

6. I hope you're right.

But the good news is that, unlike 2004, we don't need OH or FL. This has been an amazing campaign, and Obama has really turned the old map on its head.

[Poiuyt]

3. That may be true in a normal year, but we're in the middle of a economic crash

McCain doesn't have a plan to get us out either. His only message is that Obama is a terrorist who will kill your children in their sleep.

[texasleo]

4. Good work.

[seabeyond]

5. mccain continues his hate campaign, i dont think obama is close to a peak yet. n.t

[brazos121200]

7. Obama will win in Ohio, Colorado, and probably Florida,

but all the other states you cite are iffy for him. I still think he can pull out all of them except for possibly Indiana and North Carolina, though. If the economy continues to tank Obama could have an electoral landslide and carry all these states and more.