Anyone want to speculate on why 4 different polls have such different results?

[OmahaBlueDog]

Gallup Tracking 10/05 - 10/07 2747 RV 52 41 Obama +11
Rasmussen Tracking 10/05 - 10/07 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking 10/05 - 10/07 1220 LV 47 45 Obama +2
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/05 - 10/07 904 LV 45 44 Obama +1

[FrenchieCat]

1. 2 are shit polls by shit polling companies?

[Uzybone]

3. This is excellent

where is this from?

[FrenchieCat]

7. 538.....

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

[Zodiak]

8. LOL...the Columbus Dispatch is the worst poller in the country

An essentially blue city with a very red newspaper. No wonder no one here really reads it.

[FreeState]

12. Here is another break down that backs that up from pollster.com

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_of_pollsters_rating_the_i.php

[woolldog]

2. I don't know.

But if you focus only on McCain's numbers, he's getting no more than 45 in any poll. He's consistently pulling 44-45% of the vote. That's pretty much what his level of support has been this entire cycle.

[progressivebydesign]

4. Hotline/FD are cronies of Phil Gramm. Zogby doesn't use good methodology.

I debunked the Hotline/FD polls a few weeks ago. FD is run by a fellow who was a major player at UBS, which was a MAJOR client of Phil Gramm. They are republicans and I wouldn't believe anything from them. Zogby does not practice safe polling methods. He's always wrong.

[Uzybone]

5. I dont know about Hotlines rep

but Zogby lacks all credibility. The only ones I follow are Gallup, NYTimes and WSJ/NBC.

[renie408]

6. Zogby is always out of line with other polls. I think it is just a crappy poll. n/t

[Godhumor]

9. Weighting and sample make-up

Our country is so split on ideological grounds that you can predict the outcome of polls based on the weighting of democrats versus republicans. To be a hundred percent honest, Gallup is probably a couple points too high for a national poll and Hotline & Zogby are off in the other direction. I actually suspect that the RCP aggregate of Obama at +5.1% is pretty close to the true number.

[FreeState]

10. Hotline uses very wrong party breakdowns recently

The national registration by parties is approxementl):
39.5% Democratic
33.5% Republican
27.0% Independent

Hotline changed 3 days ago to uses this:
40% DEM
38% GOP (+5)
18% IND (-9)

Sorry dont have links - just had it in my notes from reading it somewhere...

[Sodan]

11. National Ipsos/McClatchy Obama 47, McCain 40 Obama +7