This day in 2004
Bush Total = 264
Toss Up = 54
Kerry Total = 220
UPDATE 10/8: Before the first debate President Bush had settled into a 5-6 six point lead in the race as measured by the RCP Poll Average. Since the debate, the national polls have tightened considerably and heading into the second debate tonight the RCP Average shows President Bush holding a small 1-2 point lead.
It is only logical that we are now seeing Kerry's movement in the national polls carrying over into the first post-debate polls at the state level. This tightening of the race prompted us on Tuesday to move Iowa from Leaning Bush to a Toss Up, and on Wednesday to move Ohio from Leaning Bush to a Toss Up and Pennsylvania from Toss Up to Leaning Kerry.
There is no question that the situation for Senator Kerry has improved dramatically in the last week. From an Electoral Vote standpoint, however, he is still facing an uphill battle.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_EC/RCP_EC_10_8_04.html#analysis