The Reverse Bradley (Yeldarb) Effect is REAL.

[onetwo]

Anyone who watched the CNN broadcast saw that the focus group consistently rated Obama responses high and McCain ones low. Based upon the graph alone, it appeared that Obama blew McCain out of the water.

Fast forward to the Soledad O'Brien segment -- when asked to raise their hands in support of either candidate, 14 rose their hands for McCain to 11 for Obama.

This is GOOD NEWS.

What this proves is that people are willing to support Obama in PRIVATE, even if they PUBLICLY support McCain. Think of the vocal Republicans and conservatives who genuinely like Obama (at least in a matchup against McCain) but would never admit it out loud...

Here's my prediction: Despite voting shenanigans from the other side, Obama will OUTPERFORM the polls.

[MissMarple]

1. Good point. I know people who would swallow their tongues rather than admit it.

But they are just too smart to vote for McCain. We'll see.

[onetwo]

2. I think it could be good for a point in blue states and as much as three in red southern states.

[K Gardner]

3. I thought that was odd, too, on the numbers. Interesting analogy and one I believe to be true.

[ej510]

5. Or it could be racism.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. It depends on where you are... Tweety showed the King of Prussia focus group

and it was 60/40 Obama and the hand-raising was done on-camera.

But I am hoping that a reverse-Bradley will be in effect. Maybe when some of those folks who do are afraid to publicly admit their support, find that their whole world hasn't come to an end when voting for an AA, then we can start to move a little further forward in terms of civility in this country.

[BlooInBloo]

6. No way to tell either way until the election.

[Aloha Spirit]

7. I thought it was McCain 10, Obama 12 on the hand count?

[insanity]

8. The reverse Bradley effect happened in the South

During the primaries. There is a great journal article about it, but for the life of me, I can't remember the journal.