Forget Bradley effect, this election it's the Bandwagon effect

[abburdlen]

GOP shills continue talking about the Bradley Effect even though the primaries showed little evidence of it.
What I haven't heard many pundits or pollsters discuss is the Bandwagon effect and in my opinion that's going to be the big story the morning after the election.
(emphasis added)

The largest impact in the experiment, however, occur among Republicans. When the Democrat is expected to win, independent Republican leaners and weak Republicans are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate. Moreover, given the expectations that the Democratic candidate will win, even strong Republicans are almost as likely to vote for the Democratic candidate as the Republican.
Goidel & Shields
The Vanishing Marginals, the Bandwagon & the Mass Media
The journal of Politics Vol 56, No 3,p 808-

During the primaries many derided the popularity of the Obama campaign as celebrity driven or even some sort of cult. That is a negative way to view the bandwagon effect but the simple truth is it's human nature for people to want to be on the winning side. With the polls currently showing Obama with a commanding lead in the polls, and even readers at NRO convinced Obama has already won it isn't unreasonable to see states like Georgia, Montana and Texas colored Blue on election night.

:toast:

[tekisui]

1. I call it the Yeldarb Effect.

or the "reverse bradley"

[gademocrat7]

2. great

[abburdlen]

4. different than reverse Bradley

I'd say the Yeldarb effect would explain the increased voter turn-out for AA - and that helps Obama as well
But bandwagon effect is basically just most people deciding to root for the winning team.

Whether it's Bandwagon or Yeldarb or a combination, I'm happy to call it a LANDSLIDE.

[KittyWampus]

12. Thing is, if there's a pre-existing phenomena and term to use it seems wise to stick to it.

Best to have facts and statistics on our side.

[renie408]

3. So should we just ignore race? It seems that talking about it will help to

alleviate the problem.

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. Yeah, in the next thirty days we're going to work the talking cure on race

Good idea.

Who do you want to win this election?

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

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[abburdlen]

6. No problem talking about race

nor acknowledging that it will be the main factor for some people not supporting Obama.

But Obama is still going to win this election.

[renie408]

8. I think you are right. I just think that we have an opportunity here.

We can discuss how racism lurks under the surface for a lot of people.

[abburdlen]

10. I have a feeling during the next 8 years

we'll have plenty of opportunity to discuss racism.

There are some small-minded people in this country. If Obama was running against the ghost of Ted Bundy they still wouldn't vote for Obama.
I'd even go so far as to say most Americans hold some prejudices that might not be conscientiously aware of but there are always a variety of factors that go into the choices we make. The original point is that the fact that Obama is leading in the polls will be a bigger factor in the final vote tally than his race.

[RichGirl]

11. It's the 100 monkey effect.

[KittyWampus]

13. Can we keep this kicked? Maybe Rachel or Keith can seize upon it.

[holiday]

14. I'm glad you wrote this.. I have wondered the same thing I

know a lot of people who I think just like being on the winning side. I even wondered if some people vote republican just because they have been winning the last 8 years.. It makes them feel like they are on the winning team. So I wondered if Obama goes into election day with a huge lead if a lot of people would just go ahead and vote for him since he is likely to win anyway

[KittyWampus]

16. It's good to know there's already an actual term/observed effect that applies.

[yardwork]

19. People DO decide their votes this way. The Republicans are now seen as losers.

[abburdlen]

15. I don't mind the kick

My gut feeling was 'following the crowd' would have some effect on election day but after some reading I was amazed at how big a part it seems to play.

At the very least we can expect more than half of the remaining undecided to break for Obama on election day and that alone is enough to put some more states in the blue column. When a study says even strong Republicans are almost as likely to vote for the Democratic candidate as for Republican when the Democratic candidate is going to win - That's just gravy.

[smoochpooch]

17. That's also why it's important to DU polls whenever possible, to reinforce the idea that Obama will

win. I think you're right, people like to be on the winning side. I was initially going to vote Hillary in the primary, but when Obama began to win I took another look at him and voted for him instead of Hillary. Maybe I was just being a sheep and wanted to be with the winner.

[yardwork]

18. I'm seeing it here in North Carolina. People are embarrassed to admit they support McCain-Palin.

Obama supporters are becoming more and more vocal. The tide is shifting. It may not shift enough in NC this time, but if the change is so noticeable here, it has to be happening across the U.S.

People are fed up. They've decided to vote for the smart guy this time. That one.

[abburdlen]

20. I still run into people bad mouthing Obama

but I honestly haven't heard anyone praising McCain.

[abburdlen]

21. evening self-kick

:)