The Daily Widget, Wed 10/8 – O-380, M-158 – Five More States Move Left; Only 37 MOE

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Wed Oct-08-08 06:32 AM
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The Daily Widget, Wed 10/8 – O-380, M-158 – Five More States Move Left; Only 37 MOE

1. ANALYSIS

Barack Obama jumps over the 62 million vote mark today, only eight days after crossing the 60 million vote mark. He now leads John McCain by 5.5 million votes nationwide, or a margin of 4.4%. Five more states move left today, three of them from within the margin of error. There are now only three states left in the margin of error totaling 37 electoral votes: Indiana (11), Missouri (11) and North Carolina (15).

New Jersey (15) is showing a 13 point lead for Obama in a new Farleigh Dickinson University poll. And Minnesota (10) is polling with a 15 point Obama lead, according to Minnesota Public Radio. Both states move from the Weak Obama to the Strong Obama column today.

And three states move from the Lean Obama to the Weak Obama column today, statistically out of McCain’s reach. Insider Advantage is showing Obama leading by 6 points in Colorado (9). Meanwhile, Obama is leading by 7 points in Nevada (5) according to Research 2000, and leading by 6 points in Ohio (20) in a new poll conducted by Public Policy Polling.

The difference in Obama’s electoral outlook between now and two weeks ago is colossal. His “safe” electoral vote total has climbed from 202 just two weeks ago to 338 today, or a 67% increase. Have a look at the difference …

First, two weeks ago:

And today:

Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.

2. NEW STATE POLLS

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

Alaska

Obama 40, McCain 55 (Rasmussen, 10/6, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado

Obama 51, McCain 45 (Insider Advantage, 10/6, +/- 5.0, 485 LV)
Florida

Obama 48, McCain 46 (Mason-Dixon, 10/5, +/- 4.0, 625 RV)
Indiana

Obama 46, McCain 46 (Research 2000, 10/1, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Indiana

Obama 46, McCain 48, B5, N0, M0 (CNN/Time, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 667 LV)
Minnesota

Obama 54, McCain 40 (MN Public Radio, 10/5, +/- 4.8, 418 LV)
Nevada

Obama 49, McCain 47 (Insider Advantage, 10/6, +/- 5.0, 468 LV)
Nevada

Obama 50, McCain 43 (Research 2000, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire

Obama 51, McCain 43, B3, N1, M0 (CNN/Time, 10/6, +/- 3.5, 813 LV)
New Jersey

Obama 50, McCain 37 (Farleigh Dickinson, 10/2, +/- 3.5, 790 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 49, McCain 48, B2, N0, M0 (CNN/Time, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 666 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 46, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 617 LV)
Ohio

Obama 49, McCain 43 (Public Policy Polling, 10/5, +/- 2.8, 1239 LV)
Ohio

Obama 48, McCain 45, B2, N3, M0 (CNN/Time, 10/6, +/- 3.5, 749 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 55, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/6, +/- 3.9, 653 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 48, McCain 38 (Morning Call, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 589 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 54, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 50, McCain 42, B4, N1, M0 (CNN/Time, 10/6, +/- 3.5, 859 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 52, McCain 42 (Survey USA, 10/6, +/- 3.9, 672 LV)

3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.

4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.

5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN

^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.

^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

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