Economy and Ground Game Alike Give Obama an Advantage in Ohio
Financial Stress, Aggressive State Campaign Boost Obama in ABC News/Wash Post Poll
ANALYSIS by GARY LANGER
Oct. 6, 2008—
Sen. Barack Obama is riding economic discontent to an advantage in Ohio, bolstered in part by financially stressed voters in the state's hard-hit industrial belt -- and following it up with a more extensive ground campaign in this key contest.
In political sentiment Ohio looks much like the nation; the economy far outstrips other issues and Obama leads in trust to handle it. That -- plus the shadow of President George W. Bush over Sen. John McCain's campaign -- fuels Obama past lingering concerns about his experience.
An aggressive ground war also helps: Thirty-seven percent of Ohio's registered voters say they've been personally contacted by the Obama campaign. That beats the 27 percent who've heard from McCain, and also surpasses the level of contacts by both campaigns in 2004, when Ohio was decisive.
Making and keeping such contacts may matter. Likely voters in this ABC News/Washington Post poll put Obama, Democrat of Illinois, ahead of McCain, Republican of Arizona, by 51 to 45 percent if the election were today. But it's not today, and there's room for change: Eighteen percent have not made up their minds for sure, much like the national figure. And movability peaks among independents, young and first-time voters -- the former a swing group; the others, two of Obama's best.
Among Obama's advantages, though, is sheer energy: Fifty-eight percent of his Ohio supporters are "very enthusiastic" about his candidacy, compared with just 30 percent of McCain's. And while that's about the same for Obama as nationally, high-level enthusiasm for McCain is 8 points lower in Ohio than in the nation overall.
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http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=5963651
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