Time to take on the surge? Or too risky?

[jpgray]

The reality of the decrease in Iraqi violence, as with any mass change in human behavior, can't be fairly attributed to a sole cause. Let's remember the 2000 election for a moment--all sane people agree Nader had an impact, yet no sane person would argue Nader was the preeminent defining cause of Bush's steal.

So on that note, the surge doubtless had some impact. However, a huge factor in all this is the near-total ethnic cleansing of Baghdad Sunnis. Another is the process of funding and supplying local leaders to deal with provincial threats. The fact that this behavior in Anbar and other provinces directly -avoids- the use of American troops makes it hard if not impossible to argue the surge is responsible for the decrease in violence for those areas.

The case for the surge as a turning point towards victory is therefore fundamentally weak. The lack of political unity and fairness remains, the major difference seems to be that sectarian elements have simply become supreme in their respective areas. There is no fundamental example to point to of Sunni and Shia getting along together in any significant numbers due to the presence of extra US troops, or indeed at all.

Is it worth going after this angle on Tuesday? Or would it be spun as "defeatist" by an increasingly desperate McCain campaign?

[Demeter]

1. It's the Stupid Economy

That's the source of all problems. As an aspect of the economy, the surge is going to be kaput very shortly after January, if not before that.

[gravity]

7. Exactly nt

[kansasblue]

2. here in the heartland that won't work...

that's one of their favorite 'smackdowns'. 'The surge worked... dems were against it.'

I thinks it's going to take a while before anything changes on that.

About the best tact to take is to make sure everyone understands. 'surge may or may not have worked but..... the war continues'

[Zynx]

3. Leave it alone. That's a tricky emotional issue.

Let the economy do our work.

[begin_within]

4. You mean "The Splurge?"

[Bluebear]

5. "The surge worked." The meme worked, unfortunately, I say leave it alone,

[Arctic Dave]

6. The masses aren't quite ready to think logically about the

Iraq fiasco. It may be a decade before they can process the amount of wrong that has descended on that country.

oops. needed spell check

[woolldog]

8. The less we bring up foreign affairs,

the better.

[Just-plain-Kathy]

9. This is very important. If only we could explain it in a simpler way.

The neo-cons like to throw in our faces that we can't admit the surge worked.

[Demeter]

10. Yeah, If Genocide Was the Goal, the Surge Worked

something to be really proud of.

[Just-plain-Kathy]

11. There you did it! A snappy one liner. People understand one liners.

[Demeter]

15. It's a Gift (or a curse)

All I need in life is a Straight Man (double entendre included, free of charge)

[nsd]

12. Top 3 issues: (1) the economy, (2) the economy, (3) the economy.

Anything else is a distraction. People just want the Iraq war to go away; they don't care about the surge.

[kenny blankenship]

13. I can't believe there are many people left who think we can afford $150-200 billion/yr for Iraq

Surge no surge - what's the diff? We can't afford this shit. We've spent a trillion dollars to create a well armed ally of Iran. Pull the plug!

[JI7]

14. no, even if debating Iraq, not worth it to debate the "surge" itself

or at least the use of that term.

[seabeyond]

16. surge is too confusing for too many people. simply put.... we won the war. time to pull out. n/t