Securing their reputations as independent-minded swing voters, Coloradans are now evenly split over the race for the White House, with a new poll showing the two presidential candidates tied at 44 percent statewide.
The latest Denver Post poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, illustrates the fluidity of the race. In August, the poll had Democrat Barack Obama with a slight 45 percent to 42 percent lead over Republican John McCain among registered voters who say they are likely to vote in the November general election.
In the new poll of 625 registered voters conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 1, another 8 percent of the state's voters — broken down roughly equally among Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated voters — are undecided.
And 4 percent of Colorado's voters are going for a third-party candidate, likely Libertarian Bob Barr, according to The Denver Post's pollster, Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon. The margin of error in this poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Obama has been increasing his lead in national polls over the past two weeks as Congress has struggled with the country's economic crisis. However, in an interview with The Post on Thursday, McCain said he was unconcerned about the polls.
"We go up, and we go down. We're all within margin of error," he said.
Since the national conventions in August and September, Obama and McCain have each made two trips to Colorado, stopping in Denver, the suburbs and towns in the southern and western edges of the state. And both campaigns say they expect the candidates or their running mates to be back before Nov. 4.
"We are going to continue to reach out to Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated voters alike," said McCain spokesman Tom Kise. "This is going to be a close race."
Obama spokeswoman Stephanie Mueller agreed.
"We're not taking any votes for granted," she said.
Unaffiliateds are the key
The race for Colorado's nine electoral votes probably will be won among the state's unaffiliated voters. Colorado's voter registration is split roughly into thirds, with unaffiliateds second to Republicans. Obama earns his tie in the state by gaining a lead among unaffiliateds to offset McCain's strong support among Republicans.
Among unaffiliated voters, 49 percent favor Obama and 31 percent favor McCain. A whopping 9 percent in this group are going for a third party, and 11 percent of unaffiliateds are undecided. Mason-Dixon oversampled unaffiliated voters to be able to predict their preference. The margin of error in the subgroup is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
One thing Coloradans are almost in unison on: The economy is the top concern, at 77 percent. Every other issue was below 6 percent.
The candidates need to speak to people's problems to capture those undecided voters, who typically don't tie their day-to-day life with politics, said Seth Masket, a political scientist at the University of Denver.
"The campaigns need to help people understand that the things they're experiencing in their lives, the president has an effect on," he said.
Retired traffic controller Karen Casaletto of Yuma has a mortgage that needs refinancing or she could lose her home. She is on Social Security and disability payments, with a fixed income, and worries monthly about her utilities bill.
Yet the undecided 64-year-old, who leans Republican, said she was wary of McCain, but not because of politics.
"I would say the main thing I'm thinking about is his age," she said, noting she's also off-put by the negative campaigning lately.
Political pundits and pollsters have said nationally the election will be decided on the backs of independent, suburban voters. In tough times, those voters typically break against the incumbent party — unless the competitor, Obama in this case, makes a big gaffe, said Vanderbilt University political scientist John Geer.
"We have an unpopular war and an unpopular president," Geer said. "McCain has a huge head wind, and Obama has a tail wind."
In this most recent poll, the advantage each candidate has in particular Denver suburbs nearly cancels the other out: The northern suburbs slightly favor Obama, and the southern suburbs favor McCain.
This isn't escaping either campaign. Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin was in Golden late last month, and Obama made a stop at a Westminster high school last week.
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