The Repukes are shooting their Swiftboat wad too early ...

[Alhena]

Against a personally likeable candidate like Obama, bringing up Ayers, Wright, etc is done most effectively in the last few days of a campaign, and only if it is necessary. That's because trashing a candidate with almost 60% approval ratings has a very big potential to backfire, especially if the trashing is done with old info that people have digested already.

Personally, I'm glad to see McCain use these desperation tactics this early- it will make the final Swiftboat ads in late October seem like yesterday's news.

[MindMatter]

1. They did the Swiftboat thing in August. It was too early then

but it did bring the race closer for a short period. I take your point. This negative stuff has a short run. They spent their ammo too early.

[madaboutharry]

3. I think the economic crisis has changed the rules.

Now the slime tactics are seen through a different lens. I am hopeful that it will be seen as bullshit and only cause people to see McCain for the asshole that he is.

[MindMatter]

15. The economic situation PLUS Obam's handling of it

I really believe the American public takes the economic situation very seriously, and they are looking for a leader who inspires confidence.

At the moment when Bush was terrorizing the public on this, McCain was bouncing recklessly all over the place. IMHO, that is the moment he lost this election. People couldn't understand what game he was playing with that meeting with Bush, especially because McCain has been so 2-faced during and since that meeting. And then he followed that by the threats to not show up at the debate. That was really a horrible move. At the moment the public wanted to see some reassuring leadership, they were treated to a "will he or won't he" act by McCain.

I know that really pissed me off, and I thing the average person felt the same way.

The public has decided that Obama/Biden can be an acceptable choice for these times. I believe that if McCain becomes even more hysterically negative, this will be exactly the opposite of what the public wants to see.

[kennetha]

2. They don't have much choice

This race is about to get completely out of reach. They either have to slow him down or concede. They are not about to concede. They think that they are entitled to power. They are about to use every single dirty trick in the vast Republican play book of dirty tricks.

And it's not just about McCain. The entire Republican party is about to suffer an historic repudiation. They are Custer at the Little Big Horn. They are going to go down with guns blazing. But mark my words, they will go down.

[OmahaBlueDog]

4. I think they may need money

If they throw red meat to the base (who is critical that they have not been mean enough), then they hope supporters will open their wallets -- not just for McSame, but for the RNC.

Maybe someone will correct me, but I believe part of the problem they now face is that not only has momentum turned, but they are likely to get seriously outspent in the next 5 weeks.

[kennetha]

6. The RNC has lots of Dough.

Obama can swamp McCain, but the RNC can make up for a lot of that.

[OmahaBlueDog]

8. OK, I've asked others, I'll ask you

You're the RNC. You've seen the poll numbers. Do you spend that money to try to save McSame and take the WH? Or, is the smart play to spend that money to save the Republican Senate seats in AK, MN, NC, NH, OR, and MS?

[kennetha]

10. Darned good question

If I'm the RNC, I make blocking a 60 seat Dem Senate priority one, I guess. with 41 Senators, the Repugs can put a stop to just about anything we try legislatively.

McCain's goose is cooked. He's going to go down with guns blazing, but he is definitely going down.

[OmahaBlueDog]

12. That's my thought

If they lose 5 of those 6 seats(a very real possibility)and the seats they're almost certain to lose in VA and NM, and the one I'm sure I forgot(CO?), McSame won't get a damn thing done, even if he is, somehow, elected. And if Obama wins, you've lost too many seats to stage a counterrevolution a la '94 in 2010. Plus, even if you got the WH in '12, you still are stuck with those Senators.

Seriously, I'd tell McSame he's on his own.

[kennetha]

14. Another possibility for the Repugs: Appeal to Ticket Splitters

Americans love divided government, unfortunately. At some point, one part of the Repugnant apparatus is going to bail on the other part. Either they conceded that they have lost the presidency, and try to scare folks into voting for Repugnant Senate/House candidates on the grounds that they are the only thing that stand in the way of democratic Hegemony. Or they concede that the House/Senate are long gone and McCain argues that it would be a nightmare of mono partisanship if the Dems controlled the Congress and the White House.

Don't know how many votes that could really sway. But if I were in their shoes, I'd feel compelled to try it. But the conundrum is which do they "concede" to the democrats? The Congress and try to save McCain or the White House and try to preserve at least some legislative foothold?

I think they have a task of difficulty level 10 on a scale of 1-10, though, however they try to play it.

[ShadowLiberal]

18. 59 or 60 seats makes little difference, a president makes all the difference

Once you get up to say 58 seats you can likely flip off a few moderates from the other side.

A president is far more powerful then the difference between a 58 to 60 seat majority by the opposition, and has far more payoffs to be worth the risk.

[OmahaBlueDog]

19. At 58-60, you're getting close to veto proof

It means no substantive part of your agenda gets done. A McSame administration would look a lot like Bush I -- gridlock. Palin would make him somewhat impeachment-resistant, but a 60 seat majority gets you in dangerous territory there as well.

OTOH,if they can cut there losses to 2-3 Senate seats by losing the Presidency, they can fight like Hell to retake one or both houses in '10.

(Obviously, I'd like to elect Obama, AND pick up 8 or more Senate seats)

[kennetha]

21. Isn't it nice that we can entertain ourselves

by trying to imagine how the Repugnants might try - almost certainly unsuccessfully --to salvage even a smidgen of power in DC after this election?

But okay, enough parlor games. Back to work!

[Historic NY]

5. The mantra should be they are so desperate to win they have to go negative.

[kennetha]

7. Good Mantra

But that should be just cover. Have to fight fire with fire. Negative campaign almost always drives down positives and drives up negatives.

The Repugnants problem is that they have no second act. No positive story to tell about why they should be elected. Their policies are utterly and completely discredited. In the end, we will win, but there will be lingering effects of the negative campaign against Obama -- just as there were lingering effects of the negative campaign against Clinton, even though he won.

[crossroads]

9. You betcha - by golly! nt

[BlooInBloo]

11. (shrug) They gotta do *something*...

Unfortunately, they have no good options.

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. They started in August...it's not taking

Nobody gives a shit about their silly bullshit. Rove has a unique distinction. He developed a politics that can only work in a time of relative prosperity. His only contribution, politically, is to bring to an end good things for his country.

[Jennicut]

16. Its gonna come off as so desperate but I guess McLoser figures there is nothing else he can do

Rush railed against him the other day per my husband who listens to him for laughter (I can't stomach it). Rush said McLoser does not act like he wants to win and has run too "clean" a campaign and needs to bring up Ayers and Wright. Question is if it did not derail him in the nomination why would it now? And Rush is a disgusting druggie but we knew that already.

[kennetha]

20. Different Electorate

Question is if it did not derail him in the nomination why would it now?

Different electorate, different equation. In the primaries you had people predisposed to vote democratic, trying to decided between two democrats. A lot of democrats did decide to vote for Hillary partly because of Wright. In the GE, it's a different equation. The people who are up for grabs are neither reliably democratic nor reliably republican, but shift on the basis of who knows what.

Wright, et al will surely move some numbers if they are pushed hard. But I very seriously doubt that they can move enough numbers. That's because the real issues climate is so very unfavorable to the Repugnants. McCain is like a man trying to hold back a Tsunami by building a sand berm.

[iamthebandfanman]

17. it just needs to be pointed out by Obama

that this is all an act of desperation on the part of the mccain camp because obviously attempting to discuss the issues isnt getting him poll numbers ;)