Expect Obama to Open up a Decent Lead in Minnesota Tomorrow

[MadBadger]

A poll came out yesterday from the Minnesota Star Tribune showing Al Franken up 9 points on Norm Coleman. This is what the article attributed to Franken's lead:

"The Minnesota Poll results suggest Franken may be riding the coattails of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, who has widened a lead over Republican John McCain in polls across the country. But the advertising war in the race also appears to be a factor decidedly in Franken’s favor."

The previous poll had Obama and McCain tied, and had Franken down 4 points. I've read that the star tribune's Presidential Poll should be release tomorrow or sometime soon. So expect Obama to open up a lead here.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/30451119.html?elr=KArksD:aDyaEP:kD:aU2EkP7K_t:aDyaEP:kD:aUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU

[mikiturner]

1. Good news

Minnesota seems to be last remaining Kerry state that was questionable (as well as Wisconsin to a much lesser degree).

[dchill]

2. You have achieved your goal with me...

Franken from down 4 to up 9 is a statistical sign of improvement for Obama, and I now EXPECT Obama to open up a lead tomorrow. :)

[MadBadger]

3. I'm gonna guess he'll be up 51-39.

[dchill]

5. Sounds good to me...

Kerry was only up one (47-46) in MN on this date in '04. But the paradigm has apparently shifted in the whole country. ;)

[LiberadorHugo]

4. SUSA was an outlier, like I've been saying...

It made no sense to see McLame up one and Coleman up 10 in light of comtemporaneous polls.

[elocs]

6. Another poll shows Franken 10 points behind Coleman:

http://blogs.citypages.com/blotter/2008/10/frankencoleman.php

In the race for Senate, Sen. Norm Coleman is showing a strong lead against Al Franken in a poll also released by SurveyUSA. But the interesting change since the last poll is the surge towards Independent Dean Barkley.

Coleman is up 43 percent to Franken's 33 percent. Barkley has a whopping 19 percent:

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, Franken is down 10 points; Coleman is up 2 points; Barkley is up 5 points. Barkley today gets 27% of the vote among seniors, 31% of the vote among Independents and 30% of the vote among those focused on health care. Combined with the 5% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they are undecided, 1 in 4 today vote for neither Coleman nor Franken.

[DCBob]

7. Convinced me. Obama up by 10+ in MN...

just a matter of time!!

:bounce:

[FreeState]

8. Unfortunately that poll is bogus - look at the internals - D42% vrs R26%

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/dueling-minnesota-polls.html

While SurveyUSA provides plenty of crosstabular detail, there's very little from the Star-Tribune in the way of demographics, making comparison of the polls difficult. The Star-Tribune does, however, provide their party ID split (as does SurveyUSA):

Poll D R I D +/-
Star-Tribune 42 26 27 +16
SurveyUSA 37 30 21 +7