I don't think there's going to be an October surprise.

[Barack_America]

Hear me out.

If the Republicans had something that could truly and drastically alter the election, wouldn't they have used it before they conceded Michigan?

The decision to give up Michigan was HUGE. With the lack of a Democratic primary there a lot of people (myself included) had pegged Michigan as the blue state most likely to go red. Instead, it ends up being the first swing state abandoned by the GOP. Conceding Michigan drastically changes the election strategy and put a lot of pressure on McCain to win states that he's already struggling in. While I recognize it's possible that McCain just "suspended" his campaign and could go back there, it will be tough for him to do so. While McCain's advertising and campaign offices are idle, the Obama machine is plugging away.

So if McCain or the RNC really had something in their back pocket, wouldn't they have used it before conceding one of the most important swing states of this election?

Just a thought.


ETA: I'm just speaking practically here. I know that anything is possible, constant vigilance and all that. And yes, I will still be volunteering my ass off come election day. *throws salt over shoulder, crosses self, spits, etc.*

[vaberella]

1. That's exactly what I thought.

At this point I don't think there's anything left. Everything is hurting McCain...and the focus anyway is on the economy. He would never have suspended his campaign if he had some surprise.

[Kookaburra]

2. I think they'll try something

Cornered rats always go down fighting. Don't think it's going to do them much good, though. I hear a lot of doom and gloom predictions, but this time, I think we're going to win and win big.

[Honeycombe8]

3. I wouldn't underestimate the GOP. They are experts at winning elections.

Don't forget that McCain has had trouble with Michigan dating back to the Republican Primary. Romney won the Michigan primary there, I believe. When McCain went there, he told them something like, "Oh, yes, I understand you've lost your jobs there. And I hate to tell you, but those jobs aren't coming back."

I bet the GOP is secretly wishing McCain had selected Romney as his VP. Oh, they're putting on a good face about Palin. But they wouldn't have had to pull out of Michigan if Romney had been on the ticket.

[LiberalFighter]

16. Was that Michigan or Ohio that he told the workers?

[irish.lambchop]

4. I think the 'surprise' happened early.

I believe it was the bail-out business (read on DU that this administration had been sitting on a bail-out plan for quite some time) only it didn't go exactly to plan as oversight was added (along with pork). I think they were counting on panic and fear to usher through a 2 1/2-page ransom note from Paulson similar to the passing of the Patriot Act.

[NotThisTime]

5. They don't have anything NEW, however, they are going to use a LOT of old stuff in a cultural war

[Tallison]

7. Yeah, I think the culture card's going to reemerge

I mean, what else can the Repugs win on? Ain't the economy or foreign policy... Unfortunately, I think the race card, in some subtle way, will figure into their strategy.

[Larkspur]

6. The "October surprise" was trumped by 2 September surprises

1) Russia's invasion of Georgia and
2) The current financial crisis, and the $700 billion is just a bandaid solution.

There may be a smaller October surprise -- Alaska's Troopergate special prosecutor will issue his report on Oct. 10 and it may highlight Gov. Palin's abuse of power and paint her more like George W. Bush with lipstick than she is now.

[moose65]

8. Republicans are the masters of dirty tricks

However, I think THEY are the ones who misunderestimated the anger of the American people. They don't have enough dirty tricks to make up for the things people are seeing right before their eyes. And really, now that I think about it, it makes sense. Republicans hate government and the entire process, so why should it be a surprise that they have no plan B, no ground game, no way to articulate their views on the issues? Their collective goose is cooked, I think. It's already too late - people are already voting in many states. Any bets on the next state they give up on? Seems to me that New Hampshire is a waste of time for them: it's expensive and it's "only" 4 electoral votes. They need to keep their eyes on larger states, don't they?

[Barack_America]

15. Agreed. It's hard to be distracted from the fear of losing your job, home...

and the future you envisioned for your children.

I think the distrust of all things Republican is so high in this country now that, even if they did trot out Bin Laden's corpse, it would be met with general cynicism and anger.

[Chicago1]

9. Wait until Osama pops out on Oct 31

Mr. Villian himself will pop out on October 31st to scare everyone so the sheep will vote for Mr. Dementia/Alzheimers and Caribou Barbie.


VOTE OBAMA/BIDEN 2008
START THE IMPEACHMENT!!!

[caledesi]

11. Osama?? After ?? years? I am just shaking! (sarcasm) nt

[Pharlo]

10. You mean the October Surprise wasn't

the fact that Palin actually made it to the debate and didn't repeat the Couric interview 'strategy'?

[mw]

12. Well, he fired his Oct surprise in Aug (Palin) and Sep (suspension)

What can he possibly do now, that won't make him look even more unstable and erratic?

Here's McCain's best and only hope:

1. Attack attack attack. Go as negative as he can. Truth be damned. Put Obama on the defensive.

2. Keep parroting Obama's popular positions. No matter that it conflicts with earlier McCain statements.

3. Hope that their "suppress the Dem vote" operation works.

[Bubbha Jo]

13. Remember the movie "W" is opening this month.

That won't do any favors for the GOP ticket.

[Barack_America]

14. Good point.

I had forgotten about that.

And I'd never considered the effect it might have on Senate and House races (and local races too!).

Hmm, interesting.

[BumRushDaShow]

17. Don't forget that although, as others have stated, repukes excel in dirty tricks

this current crew is about as incompetent as it gets for their party. Even their own have distanced themselves from McLame's team and some have demanded that McLame dump the Shrub/TurdBlossom idiots, but it's too late. They blew their wad too soon. The "drilldrilldrill" circus sideshow has gone home now and have been told that they will get little or no money to support their own races because most has to be devoted to bolstering the flagging McPalin ticket.

McPalin has been disastrous to the repukes and there is a possibility of Dems gaining as many as 6 Senate seats and 18 House seats if the stars are aligned correctly. Some interesting commentary on that here: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/9/28/11200/6573