McCain and the RNC: Are they going broke?

[maseman]

This is not a news item but a question. The Republicans are on defense this election which is extremely expensive. Why?

Two reasons. First since McCain opted to take the public financing he has (or had) about $84 million to spend. Once that runs low the RNC can funnel money to help fund McCain's camp. Second, the Republicans are defending some very tough seats in the House and Senate and are starting from scratch in many areas where R's have decided to retire. In essence the RNC and McCain are "splitting" the financial ticket.

So what happens with 31 days to go until the election? The R's need to make some very tough decisions like they did in Michigan. They can funnel money to McCain which hurts their finances with local senate and House elections. That can only help dems. OR they cut back on McCain's cash flow and inject into the Senate and House races to try to hold onto a few more seats. Third they split the cash and hope for the best.

Here's my opinion. If McCain can't get his poll numbers up in the next week or two the RNC will essentially cut him way back to preserve Senate and House seats. If McCain loses this next debate (or even ties it) I can't see how his poll numbers would go up very much. If for some reason McCain comes up in the polls or wins the Tuesday debate handedly I look for the RNC to go wild with money to the McCain camp as their last 'Hail Mary' pass. The good news in that would be the Senate and House would do better with Dems in that scenario.

I am a a complete nobody and this is simply my opinion based on what I have seen in past elections and what I know about the finances of these campaigns.

ON EDIT**

I had not even seen this article this morning from the Washington Post. Just saw it on the Latest Page. Check this out.

Source: Washington Post

The pessimism in the GOP ranks reflects a striking shift in momentum in the four weeks since the Republican National Convention, when Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin made her national debut and rallied conservatives, helping to fuel the perception that longer-shot Democratic targets were drifting out of reach.

"If you turn the clock back two or two and half weeks, you could make a plausible argument that if a couple of things go our way we will lose three to four Senate races," said one Republican strategist. "Now we will lose six to eight." Polling in most Senate races over the past 14 days has shown a five-point decline for the Republican candidate, the strategist said.
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The picture in the House is similar. The generic ballot test -- a traditional measure of broad voter attitudes -- has also moved decisively in Democrats' direction in recent days. The latest NBC-Wall Street Journal and Associated Press polls showed voters favoring a generic Democratic candidate for Congress over a generic Republican by 13 points, while a recent Time magazine poll gave Democrats a 46 percent to 36 percent edge.

GOP operatives said the party's declining fortunes are rooted in a series of events over the past two weeks, including McCain's decision to suspend his campaign in order to help broker a deal on the rescue plan and Republican opposition that doomed the bill in a House vote on Monday. Those incidents helped reinforce voter impressions that Washington is broken and that Republicans bear the brunt of the blame, the party insiders said.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/03/AR2008100303699.html?nav=rss_politics

[grantcart]

1. I suspect that there are disagreements between McCain and the RNC

with the RNC wanting to spend money where they have Senators running.


The biggest hit? After media buys the GOP probably won't have much to spend on GOTV drive.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

2. 65 mill. tuned in to see a potential train wreck?

If McCain continues to lose his cool, watch for an even larger audience wait for him to blow.

All Obama has to do is compare his opponent with his daddy.

[livetohike]

3. I think they are in financial trouble - definitely

They are paying room and board and who knows what else for Sarah Palin, her husband, her children and whomever has to come along with that circus. Remember how they were campaigning together for the first two weeks? I don't think they have the money to send that whole crew out on their own around the country.

Another thing, they weren't raising the same kind of money Obama has been raising. By choosing the federal money McCain has to hope the RNC will be generous. However, the RNC can't afford to let Senate seats slip away and therefore, the money they have has to be distributed to save Senate and Congressional seats.

I look for the McCain campaign to pull out of more states this week.

[DFW]

4. NO way

The RNC has a huge wealthy donor base that, while maybe small in number compared to the DNC,
can be counted to produce a large number of "max" donors ($28,500 per donor) as well as not
being above finding ways to give money to third parties (illegal, see "Noe, Tom," but it's not
like legalities are their strong suit), and get them to donate the max, too.

McCain may be bound to federal limit, but the RNC is awash in cash. Compared to the RNC, the
DNC is "running on fumes (actual words of the DNC Treasurer)." They need all the help they can get.

[maseman]

7. It's true they have a huge deep pocket

But they also have HUGE expenses this year. Here's a clip from a USA Today article from August.

A quirk of the political calendar — Republicans are defending 23 seats this year to Democrats' 12 — put the GOP at a disadvantage from the start. Worse still, those include five Republican retirements — which typically make it harder to keep a seat — compared to none among Democrats.

The scent of defeat threatens to become a self-fulfilling prophecy: Republican donors are sitting on their hands, giving Democrats a nearly 2-to-1 advantage in fundraising that limits the GOP's ability to defend key seats.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-08-17-senate-campaign_N.htm

[LiberalFighter]

9. They might have a huge wealthy donor base but human nature

is to put your money with the winner. They are not likely to waste THEIR money on a lost cause.

[Hokie]

5. Good analysis

I am not familiar with the law to know how much the RNC can help McCain since he opted for public financing. I think the RNC can run McCain ads disguised as "issue" ads. You are right that the RNC will eventually have to chose whether to back a losing horse or salvage a Senate seat somewhere. Remember all the flack Obama took for declining public financing this summer? Right, neither does anyone else now. It was a very smart move.

[maseman]

6. Yes it was a good decision so the DNC can focus on their seats

[maseman]

8. Selfish Kick for new info from the Washington Post today

[Essene]

10. 1) they want to make an issue of obama's promise re: financing 2) they are being spread thin

I dont think they are running out of money, but they are being forced to quickly spread more intensely in a lot more states.

Palin's impact has been hurting them and now they want to harness her debate performance (which their base likely enjoyed)

Likewise, Mccain will go after Obama on campaign financing... you can bet on it, so this feeds into that.