Rasmussen Nevada Poll: Obama 51(+5), McCain 47 (-2)

[MadBadger]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election

[speedoo]

1. but.... but..... we are OVEREXTENDED!!!!!

Tucker Bounds said so!!!

[biglefthander]

21. why?

...are so many geeky, snarky GOP mouthpieces named Tucker?

[speedoo]

24. Great question. I wish I knew. nt

[ClarkUSA]

2. Barack's pulling away...

Your poll addiction is keeping the rest of us informed. :)

[MadBadger]

5. No problem.

[unfrigginreal]

3. Done...stick a fork in him

For the first time since July, Barack Obama has moved ahead of John McCain in Nevada.

[tekisui]

4. Wow. +5, he's seriously moving!

[Ilsa]

6. Wow! love it! nt

[Hope And Change]

7. K & R!Thanks for posting!

[orwell]

8. So many gaping wounds...

...so little time.

Call in the MASH unit for McPow!

[Curtland1015]

9. Hot damn! Another state for Obama!

[DCBob]

10. That's a good one!! This has got to be killing the McCain campaign.

They are probably in a meltdown trying to figure out which holes to plug.

[MindMatter]

23. Without a doubt. Remember this big movement started with FL

It was only 2 - 3 weeks ago that Obama's campaign committed to putting $39M into Florida.

Realistically, there is no plausible scenario where McCain loses Florida and still wins the election. His campaign knows that, so that move must have hit them like a ton of bricks. Since that time, McCain has been erratic in the extreme. He is bouncing from place to place with no rhyme or reason. His behavior has been wild. His positions are all over the map.

There have obviously been major news items adding to that pressure, but when the whole story is told, I bet much of this can trace back to Obama's major offensive in Florida. It disrupted and demoralized the McCain campaign and they haven't been the same since. I would argue that the Florida thing CAUSED much of McCain's fumbling of the bailout and debate.

Obama doesn't have to win Florida. But even losing in Florida, it could prove to have been the decisive battle.

[Drunken Irishman]

25. I think his campaign realizes they're done.

So now they hope they can pull the surprise. Maybe focus on the states they need to hold and then pick one Obama state they feel they can pick off.

That means McCain will be playing defense in the following states:

Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Colorado
North Carolina
Indiana
New Mexico
Nevada
Missouri
Georgia

Then they'll go on the offensive in Wisconsin or Minnesota.

[DCBob]

27. That's alot states to defend -- especially considering they may have a money problem now.

I think we are close to seeing the McCain campaign implode.

[hogwyld]

29. I don't see how they can have money problems

84 million dollars is still a hell of a lot of money! Plus whatever the RNC throws at it.

[ShadowLiberal]

30. Yeah, the RNC just raised like 60 million dollars in Sept.

[DCBob]

31. I thought that too but the talking heads were saying today money is why they are dropping MI.

I guess they have blown through a ton a cash in a hurry on TV ads.

[MindMatter]

32. Flying those charter jets around ain't cheap

They could easily go through $100M in a month if they are having to do a lot of TV advertising defending a lit of states.

And the corollary is that we have to keep supporting Obama financially all the way to the finish line. We know that there will be plenty of money flowing into the RNC. I wonder how much of Paulson's $700Bn will make it back into the RNC's hands in time to help McCain.

[DCBob]

26. I guess they thought they had Florida in the bag. Another miscalculation.

They are really scrambling now. I don't see a plausible way to victory for them now.

[SuperTrouper]

11. "A Few Small Nips" by Frida Kahlo...Perfect depiction of McCain's Campaign

[joecooool]

12. Reply

These polls change with the wind. The only one that will count is on election day.

[MadBadger]

13. You sound like a disappointed freeper.

[Sodan]

17. Pay attention - 99% of the polls point to --> OBAMA!

[unfrigginreal]

18. Awww...you no likey?

:rofl:

[cali]

28. so sorry, dear, but the polls haven't been changing with the wind

and historically, in October, voters decisions harden. And don't forget your old fucktard McAsshole and his Alaskan pop tart have been falling for 2 solid weeks while Obama has been rising. Repukes are fucked.

[darius15]

14. Every day, it seems McCain is losing ground in a different state. Which will it be tomorrow?

My guess is tomorrow we could see an Indiana poll with an Obama lead outside of MOE.

[Barack_America]

15. If Obama holds PA, WI, MN, IA and NH and gets NV. This election is over.

He doesn't need Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio OR Florida.

Done, done and done.

[unhappycamper30]

16. +5 = Awesome!

[An Intellectual]

19. I'm concerned.

I don't know why, but I'm concerned. Perhaps Obama should drop out?

[4_Legs_Good]

20. That's What I'm Talking About!!!!

Niiiiiiceeeeeeee!!!!!!

GO NEVADA!!!!

There are very few scenarios in which we'll lose this thing if we carry Nevada.

David

[Awsi Dooger]

22. There's no doubt Obama leads in Nevada

If a Democrat has a national edge of 5-6 points, that translates into a lead in Nevada, which figures to come very close to the national popular vote margin, probably within one point.

I would caution that Rasmussen doesn't have the greatest track record in Nevada. Mason-Dixon is more reliable.

One thing I've noticed, and I'm tempted to start a thread but there's no need for it, is we seem to have no trouble with the national polls right now. Remember all the months, and specifically after the GOP convention, when a national poll margin was greeted with, "Who cares? The national polls are meaningless! This is decided state by state. That's where we need to focus."

:rofl:

Now that the national polls are in Obama's favor we don't seem to have a problem heralding them, and waiting for the state indications to follow suit. That's always the tendency, the states falling in line with the national margin. They are hardly unrelated variables, and you can't dismiss national margins, regardless of what some of the posters here and elsewhere want to pretend.