The Daily Widget – Wed 10/1 – O-351, M-187 – Florida Blue; Georgia Moves Left

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Wed Oct-01-08 06:35 AM
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The Daily Widget – Wed 10/1 – O-351, M-187 – Florida Blue; Georgia Moves Left

1. ANALYSIS

Twelve new state polls were released yesterday for 10 different states. Florida finally takes the plunge into bluedom today, and Georgia weakens for John McCain as Barack Obama cuts his lead in half there. Two gains from yesterday’s post are ungained today: Virginia moves back into the Lean Obama column, and New Jersey inches back into the Weak Obama column. And although they didn’t change columns today, Obama lost points in North Carolina, Indiana and Nevada.

Public Policy Polling reports a 3-point lead in Florida for Obama. Florida had occasionally been polling blue before the conventions, but since then it has been polling straight red. It’s quite possible that Florida could swing back and forth between the candidates for the rest of the election cycle, causing wild spikes and dips on our tracking lines. But for the moment, it’s nice to slap some blue on it.

Georgia had been stuck in the Strong McCain column since the conventions, even though it is one of Obama’s Seventeen where he is concentrating time and effort. Survey USA shows McCain’s lead dropping from +15 to +8 in their new Georgia poll.

Virginia and New Jersey both moved a column to the left in yesterday’s post, but new polls from American Research Group and Strategic Vision, respectively, brought these two states back, Virginia to Lean Obama and New Jersey to Weak Obama.

And Obama suffers point-losses today as his polling weakened a bit in North Carolina, Indiana and Nevada. Although these states stay put in their respective columns, my electoral vote calculator noticed this weakening and dropped 20 electoral votes today for Obama. North Carolina moved 1.7 points to the right, while Indiana moved 1 point to the right and Nevada moved 1.3 points to the right.

Obama continues to extend his popular vote lead, and he now leads McCain by more than 1.5 million votes nationwide. Trading continues to climb for Obama, and he now leads McCain on Intrade 63.8% to 35.7%, or +28.1, as of overnight closing.

Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.

2. NEW STATE POLLS

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

Arizona

Obama 38, McCain 59 (Rasmussen, 9/29, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida

Obama 49, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 9/28, +/- 3.2, 941 LV)
Georgia

Obama 44, McCain 52 (Survey USA, 9/29, +/- 3.8, 677 LV)
Indiana

Obama 45, McCain 48 (Survey USA, 9/29, +/- 3.8, 687 LV)
Nevada

Obama 47, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 9/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Jersey

Obama 48, McCain 39 (Strategic Vision, 9/27, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 46, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 9/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio

Obama 48, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 9/29, +/- 3.8, 693 LV)
Ohio

Obama 47, McCain 45 (Insider Advantage, 9/29, +/- 4.0, 512 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 49, McCain 41 (Morning Call, 9/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia

Obama 46, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 9/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia

Obama 51, McCain 45 (Insider Advantage, 9/29, +/- 5.0, 436 LV)

3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.

4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.

5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN

^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.

^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

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