OCTOBER 1, 2008
New Voters Like Obama, But May Not Show up at Polls
By SARA MURRAY
WASHINGTON -- This year's flood of newly registered voters heavily favor Sen. Barack Obama in the presidential contest, but they won't necessarily show up to support him on Election Day, a new survey indicates. A nationwide poll of Americans who are eligible to vote for the first time, or who skipped the previous election but are registered now, found that they back Sen. Obama over Sen. John McCain by a margin of 61% to 30%.
The survey, conducted by the Wall Street Journal, NBC News and the MySpace networking Web site, also found these voters have distinctly more positive impressions of Sen. Obama than any of the other three candidates atop the Democratic and Republican tickets. But that hardly means the Obama campaign can count on them. When asked to rank their interest in the Nov. 4 election, just 49% said they were "very interested." By comparison, 70% of voters of all age groups said they were "very interested," according to a separate Journal/NBC News national poll taken a week ago. Moreover, 54% of the new voters said they would definitely vote Nov. 4.
The poll is the first to segregate new and lapsed voters, a group of men and women who figure to be an important force this year. More than three-quarters of the sampling of 614 voters had registered for the first time this year, and were mostly young adults. The remaining share of the sample were older voters who had registered in the past, but who said they skipped the 2004 elections. The survey included interviews conducted on the Internet, as well by telephone interviews, and had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
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The economy is a top concern among these new voters, the survey found, even more so than voters overall. Economic issues trump health care, for example, by 65% to 20%. Social and foreign-policy issues rank far behind. When asked why the election is important, new voters cited the need to pick a president who can strengthen the economy more than any other reason, well ahead of picking a president who will bring change. The new voters also said by an overwhelming margin that America is off on the wrong track; almost nine in 10 said the U.S. is in a state of decline. More than six in 10 said they weren't confident their children's generation would be better off -- 10 percentage points higher the view of all voters surveyed last month.
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122282400242492827.html (subscription)