McCain's health IS an issue: 1 in 4 chance that he would not survive his second term

[darius15]

If John McCain is elected and goes on to win a second term, there's as much as a one-in-four chance America could see its first woman president _ Sarah Palin.

It's actuarial math.

The odds highly favor either McCain or Barack Obama completing a first term in good health. After that, McCain's odds still are still fairly solid, but his chances of dying or being in poor health go up faster than Obama's, mainly because of his age.

An Atlanta actuarial company specializing in individualized estimates of life and health expectancy has run the numbers for McCain, 72, and Obama, 47. The firm, Bragg Associates, calculated the odds of the candidates dying in office, adjusted for their known health problems.

McCain would be the oldest president to begin a first term in office. By the end of a second term, Jan. 20, 2017, he would have a 24.44 percent chance of dying, compared with 5.76 percent for Obama, the firm estimates.

"Can either candidate expect to serve two terms in a healthy state? The answer is yes," says James C. Brooks, Jr., an actuary with the firm. "They're both in outstanding health for people of their age."

Illness is another issue.

Because chances of developing a serious ailment are higher for any person than are the chances of dying, Bragg used the candidates' medical information to estimate how many years of good health might be in store for each. After all, a debilitating illness could force a president to step down.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/oneinfour-chance-mccain-m_n_130624.html

[Tallison]

1. Can't believe he's successfully resisted pressure to release his med records

bureaucratic nightmare that it would be.

[Bobbieo]

2. I'm not certain he will survive a first term.

[Tallison]

5. Nor am I, as an RN

Next to pancreatic, melanoma's the worst.

[Skwmom]

8. I think the guy's a Republican hack b/c his estimate makes NO sense.

[LiberalFighter]

10. I doubt the actuarian considered the job of being President.

And the pressure of two women that he will have to deal with on a daily basis.

Does he not know that Cindy McCain might be even more of a problem if she becomes First Lady? McCain will probably be lose sleep with the problems the country will have and Cindy McCain back on drugs.

Then there is the issue of Palin. What will be her attitude when it goes to her head that she is the Vice President? Will she think that because Cheney had more to do then any previous VP that she should have the same and make demands of McCain? She might even plan to pressure McCain so that he has a heart attack in order to assume power.

[paparush]

3. What does it say? It says "Arrrrrrggggghhhhhhhhhh" What?

It says, "Arrrrrrgghhhhhhhhh".

C'mon, nobody would take the time to write out "Arrrrrrrghhhh".

Well, that's what it says!

[JuniperLea]

4. Second term?

I think it's even odds on completing the first four years!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

6. No, no he said he's only going to serve ONE term!!!!!!

not many people know that

[LiberalFighter]

11. If the voters allow even that to happen.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

14. perish the thought!

[Skwmom]

7. This doesn't sound right. He would be 72 when sworn in.

The Whitehouse accelerates the aging process. Isn't it something like 4 years for every one (and that's not even considering his advanced age - which would would make it even greater).

I think they are trying to understate the probability. I think it's more likely than not that he wouldn't survive a first term. And I'm sure Palin wouldn't hesitate to get him removed for dementia.

[rlb]

9. Lung cancer from smoking...

They are already starting to use this.  We need to be careful.
Barack is still having trouble quiting.  People at work were
trying to say that cancer doesn't discrimainate and that his
mom is still ticking at age 90 something.  The good genes
arguement.

[firedupdem]

12. Please! Don't compare the two! Barack could probably smoke

a pack a day and be in better health than McCain. He's already a dead man walking!

[firedupdem]

13. where is your profile freep?

[rlb]

16. Lung cancer from smoking...

What does my profile have to do with anything?  Cancer can
affect anyone.  So be careful when using this to support
Obama.  Does this not make sense?

[Left Is Write]

15. Potential lung cancer in a former smoker cannot be compared

to known, recurring cancer. This is to say nothing of the 25-year age difference between the two men.