I'm on the Hiiiiigggghhhh Road to Hell!. I'm on the Hiiiiggghh Road

[Kimber Scott]

to hehellllll.

I'm usually a pretty optimistic person. A true believer in the "guy in the white hat always wins" happy ending, but honestly, I'm getting a little nervous. Help me. What's going on here? Kerry's poll numbers seem to be in a nose dive. Do good guys always finish last? Or, am I just getting caught up in the swirling flush of the GOP toilette?

Somebody, give me something I can hold on to! Please.

[lancdem]

1. What poll numbers are you talking about?

Of the last five national polls, three have Kerry ahead, one has Bush ahead and one's a tie.

http://www.pollingreport.com

He's lost ground, but he's at least running even. That's good news considering what he's been through the last several weeks.

[Kimber Scott]

3. Ok. Thank you for that. I was looking here:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Is this site any good? I know last week Kerry seemed to be way ahead in EVs. So, when I looked at it today, I got a little panicky.

On edit: Just what is a "likely voter?" Is this some kind of special formula, or is it a "How likely are you to vote in this year's election?" question.

[wwbarnes]

6. It's An Excellent Site

It was started by a Kerry supporter who didn't think the media were accurately reporting the numbers. That site does a good job. I happen to think PA and IA will swing back toward Kerry, but WI is going to go for Bush. I'm having a hard time thinking that TN will go for Kerry, and I think the Bushes will steal FL again no matter what. In any case, I'm starting to wonder whether Kerry plan to "bide his time" all the way into December.

[lancdem]

15. The most recent Wisconsin poll has Kerry ahead by 6

[wwbarnes]

24. Take It With A Grain of Salt

Democratic pollster not well known. Not any more reliable than Strategic Vision, the GOP pollster.

[hippiegranny]

7. it's a freeper site

now, ever since they found out about it and hijacked it. fuhgeddaboudit.

[wwbarnes]

10. Oh bullshit

[lancdem]

14. It's a good site, but even the guy who runs it

knows some state polls are to be taken with a grain of salt, particularly ones done by partisan firms such as Strategic Vision, which is Republican.

[wwbarnes]

21. I Agree With You

The individual state polls need to be taken with a grain of salt. But so does Zogby, whose antipathy for Bush is pretty clear for anyone to see. You can't look at any one poll, you've got to look at all of them and check for the trends. It's pretty obvious that the Swiftliars have taken a lot of wind out of Kerry's sails.

[VolcanoJen]

17. Every time I click on that site, it crashes my browser.

It may have been started by a Kerry supporter, but I simply don't trust that site, because of the evil tricks it plays on my computer. :D

[cheshire]

22. That one moved 10 point toward Kerry during RNC

[belle]

23. ooh, that's actually slightly better than the last couple days.

Don't stress. Bush is the INCUMBENT; he's in the middle of his CONVENTION. he should be doing a *lot* better than this if he wants to win. Seriously, chill. I mean, keep doing whatever activism you're doing, but: chill.

[clydefrand]

2. Yeah, I've been feeling that way too

And I hate it because I know John Kerry is qualified to be our leader. The one comfort I have is when I allow myself to think that Kerry can outsmart the fool and his handlers. I keep asking myself what it will be that Kerry is going to come out with to blow Bush's cover. There's got to be some ammo that he is saving for the right moment.

[blm]

4. Go check out the dozens of other threads saying the same thing.

I believe there is soothing balm to be found there.

Maybe we can have just one thread where everyone who's nervous can hang and commiserate.

[Kimber Scott]

5. Good idea. Why don't you start the Official Thread for the Weak-Kneed?

Actually, I feel better already, but it's still a good idea.

[blm]

18. Heh. I'm no help there.

My nerves are all steel.

[21winner]

8. Ha Ha

LazyBoy hammerbags,whine,whine,whine

[A_Possum]

9. You're caught up in the swirling flush

*smile*

C'mon, think about it. The polls are running a tie, any shifts have been within the margin of error. This means that there have BEEN no shifts.

It's 2 months until the election. Two months. That's a long long long time, and there is no evidence of either side making gains after all the hoopla.

Frankly the very fact that these polls show week after week that the candidates are tied is something really fishy. I do not, for one, believe that a country of 281,421,906 million is precisely split down the middle, with 129,454,076 people on one side, 129,454,076 on the other, and 22,513,752 wondering who to vote for. For one thing, a 3 pt margin of error is bigger than the undecideds.

I realize these are not "real" numbers (ie, I based em on total population, not voters or likely voters) but just to illustrate the kind of numbers these polls are trying to predict. The margins of error are simply too big, the time is too far out, and there are no trends.

So anybody who's claiming Kerry has lost meaningful ground is panicking and/or gloating with no realistic basis.

And considering the viciousness of the smearvet attacks, the fact that Kerry HASN'T lost 10-15 pts, instead of 1-2, is significant.

[Kimber Scott]

12. Thank you. That's exactly what I needed. I read Maureen Dowd's

column, after going to electoralvote.com and even she sounded like the Bush B.S. was winning. Honestly, I panicked. Thanks for pulling my head out of a place it's anatomically impossible to go!

[truthspeaker]

11. a 1 point change is not a "nose dive".

[ArkDem]

13. Don't worry

toi·lette ( P ) Pronunciation Key (twä-lt)
n.
1. The act or process of dressing or grooming oneself; toilet.
2. A person's dress or style of dress.
3. A gown or costume.

[Kimber Scott]

19. Hey, I used the spell checker!

ROFLMAO! There are two words that got me kicked out of spelling bees when I was a kid. Surprise and toilet. Don't know if it means anything.

[ArkDem]

20. I'm sorry I have OCD

:hi:

[NeoConsSuck]

16. I was just thinking..

Bush isn't doing most of the attacking. He's usually clearing brush in Crawford. But there's a reason why his party is called rethugs. They seem to incorporate an 'attack team', leaving the candidate squeaky clean while the attack team sleazes.

Have the Democrats ever thought of using an attack team? Kerry doesn't have to get his hands dirty. Let certain members of the Democratic party do it.

We need a SleazeBoat team, I'm afraid.