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Edited on Mon Sep-22-08 10:07 AM by Kurt_and_Hunter
If I wanted to harm Obama's chances I would work overtime trying to convince people that he has drawn a line in the sand on the bail-out, and that there is any chance that he will vote against a final bill which everyone on both sides knows will be a very imperfect piece of legislation.
His hands are tied. Senator Obama will vote for the final bill and everybody knows that. If it grants AIG board members a lifetime supply of champagne and requires ducks to wear pants he will still have to vote for it.
This issue is 100 times hotter, politically, than FISA. You say what you would prefer be in the bill, have some amendment votes, and hope the final language isn't too awful... because either way you vote for it. He is not on the phone with party leaders telling them what to do. He is finding out what THEY plan to do so he can shape his campaign message to mesh with what congressional Dems are going to do this week.
The guy is running for president... in like 40 days. That is a practical fact.
Dems cannot afford to make our electoral prospects hostage to the S&P 500... creating a situation where any possible big drop before election day would hurt us rather than help us, as they do now. And Obama would not be wise to stake out a position at odds with the national Party.
All big-time Dems will gravitate toward an emerging national Democratic Party line. (Every congressman and 1/3 of senators have elections the same day as Obama; a fact that will help define the Party stance.)
Obama's job this week is to 1) not take too much 'ownership' of a process he cannot control, 2) say the right things while not painting himself into a corner in a way that would seem to preclude voting for the final bill, and 3) vote for the final package which will pass almost unanimously in the Senate.
The final bill will have some improvements. There will be some oversight and accountability provisions. There may be more stuff... expanding the existing mortgage relief program, for instance. But since Senator Obama cannot dictate the final bill by fiat it would be political folly for him to take any inflexible stances. There will be a couple of amendments to vote on to provide cover or make partisan points. One hopes McCain will end up on the wrong side of an amendment or two. But when push comes to shove Obama and McCain will both vote for the final bill.
So please cut Senator Obama some slack. He has to win the election for any of this to have any meaning.
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PS: If polling suggests a NO vote would be better politics then that's a whole different equation. But at this point in the campaign it is too late to educate... you have to play public opinion as it exists.
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