Obama will win PA. Here are the latest polls since early August. McCain has never led.

[DCBob]

Big10 Battleground 09/14 - 09/17 600 RV 45 45 Tie
Marist 09/11 - 09/15 535 LV 49 44 Obama +5
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/14 - 09/14 500 LV 47 47 Tie
Quinnipiac 09/05 - 09/09 1001 LV 48 45 Obama +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/07 - 09/07 500 LV 47 45 Obama +2
Strategic Vision (R) 09/05 - 09/07 1200 LV 47 45 Obama +2
CNN/Time 08/24 - 08/26 669 RV 48 43 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 08/17 - 08/24 1234 LV 49 42 Obama +7
Rasmussen 08/19 - 08/19 700 LV 48 45 Obama +3
Susquehanna 08/11 - 08/14 700 LV 46 41 Obama +5
Franklin & Marshall 08/04 - 08/09 370 LV 46 41 Obama +5

It might be close but Obama wins it.

[Kdillard]

1. I agree I am thinking he wins by a margin of about 4-6.

[DCBob]

2. I suspect Biden will spend some time there soon to shore up the numbers.

PA is a must win for Obama and the Obama campaign will not take it for granted.

[childslibrarian]

3. Glad to know the people of Pa.

are behind Obama.

[saltpoint]

4. Good to have these numbers, and thank you for putting this

grid together for us.

I like Obama/Biden in Pennsylvania over McCain/Palin. It feels to me like a lot of Pennsylvanians may agree.

[DCBob]

5. Well it was in response to the other "hand wringing" post about "could Obama lose PA".

I do believe PA is safe but I am sure the campaign will not take it for granted.

[saltpoint]

7. Hi, DCBob. I have the privilege of knowing a handful of

long-standing Democrats in the Philadelphia area and they feel that Obama will carry the state. They agree with you that nothing is being taken for granted and the push to win is strong.

I like our chances in the red states, too -- Virginia, Colorado, even Indiana -- states Bush carried now leaning more and more toward Obama.

[DCBob]

8. NC looking good too...

PPP (D) 09/17 - 09/19 1060 LV 46 46 Tie
CNN/Time 09/13 - 09/14 910 RV 48 47 McCain +1

There are quite a few roads to victory for Obama and quite a few roads to losing for McCain.

[grantcart]

6. but but but that kills our panic buzz

I guess we have to go to how Obama is going to lose the debates now


BTW the same polls that are showing PA close are now showing WV and IN close, with WV only being McCain +5% and Indiana showing any where from McCain +5 to Obama +2.

If a particular poll makes you panic because Obama is down then why are they not also looking at the polls that show McCain in serious trouble.

The Big10battleground poll were all outliers and completely inconsistent with all of the other polls.

[Abugface]

10. "but but but that kills our panic button"

No, Bush-Cheney will stage a coup d’état and make Palin the puppet head of the new Corporate States of America. Then the panic buttons will go off like Chinese New Year firecrackers.O8)

[WinkyDink]

12. They already did: 12/12/00.

[MadrasT]

9. They're working on the ground in PA, hard...

my dad is volunteering in Lancaster County - historically a very red area. It's looking good, but they are importing more volunteers from other areas into Lancaster to help with canvassing, etc. (My dad was approached to see if they'd be willing to provide housing for any of those volunteers.)

I had heard about this "importing" of volunteers in states like Nevada, but it's nice to know they're going granular with the technique into red areas of PA, too. :woohoo:

[DCBob]

11. That's great news. It is amazing the volunteer effort for Obama all across this country.

It makes me proud to be an American again. :patriot:

[MadrasT]

13. It's awesome!

:woohoo:

And bless my dad... he's a retired college professor and is going out almost every day, knocking on doors talking to undecided voters... handing out "compare the candidates" literature and generally kicking major Democratic ass to get Obama elected... and there are plenty more highly motivated volunteers all over the state. I went down to the West Chester office a few weeks ago to see what I could do to help and I was blown away by the activity there. The place was positively abuzz with lots of busy people and major good vibes. My work schedule and commitments to a non-profit I'm involved with doesn't give me a lot of time do much personally, but I'm donating as much $$ as I can and working hard on a few undecided friends of mine. I'm determined to get out there knocking on doors between now and election day, though. At least once. I have to do that much.

[DiamondKrosse]

14. its great that he won't lose

considering if he did, he would be the first Dem to lose Pennsylvania since Michael Dukakis.

[DCBob]

15. Obama will win PA but McCain could lose VA, NC, IN, CO, NM all red states.

There are many roads to victory for Obama and many roads to losing for McCain.

[K Gardner]

16. K&R