Gallup Tracking Poll: Obama 49 (-1), McSame 45 (+1)

[dennis4868]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain in national voter preferences for the presidential election, now by a four percentage point margin, 49% to 45%

more...http://www.gallup.com/poll/110554/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leading-McCain-Points.aspx

WTF? Why is McSame getting closer?

[flamingdem]

1. Oh really...

like hell! Obama is going up in the polls

[An Intellectual]

2. It's just two points in one poll; I wouldn't worry about this.

[AndyTiedye]

9. Impact of the AP Push Poll?

[FVZA_Colonel]

3. The drop isn't good, but it is understandable.

Idiots who bought into McCain's calls for regulation and to fire the SEC Chairman (they see it as "forceful," even if it would be ilegal) are starting to think he'd do a good job on the economy. But the more Obama talks about his support for SS privatization and "doing to healthcare what we did to banking," I do not believe McCain will be able to take the lead, even if Obama's drops more.

[Thrill]

4. These tracking Polls are a joke

Notice no matter what. If he gets to fifty you can bet your ass, its going to be back to 49 the next day

[Hippo_Tron]

5. Statistically insignificant change

The fact that Obama has a lead in just about every poll is a better indicator.

[musicblind]

6. It could just be statistical noise

polls often go back and forth a point or two in the margin of error.

[Lex]

7. Yes, the overall trend is UP for Obama

over the last week or so.

[Born_A_Truman]

8. Schuster on MSNBC reporting Gallop O=50 M=44 6 pt lead for Obama

Saw him say it twice this hour.

[jenmito]

10. He's using yesterday's numbers.

[dennis4868]

11. That was yesterday's poll

The poll I just posted is todays that came out at 8pm EST.

[Barack_America]

12. Excellent news!

McCain normally polls MUCH better than this during the weekends! It will get a little bit closer tomorrow (due to inclusion of today's polling), but if this is the best McCain can do over the weekend, look for Obama to poll over 50% on Wednesday!

:woohoo:

[dennis4868]

15. What evidence...

do you have that McCain does better over the weekends? If it is true, why would this be the case? Does not make sense.

[Barack_America]

16. You can even see when looking at the graph.

Gallup polls are an average of the last three days. McCain's numbers are consistently highest on Mondays when both Saturday and Sunday's numbers are in the mix. By Wednesdays, Obama tends to pull ahead. Gallup can only poll people they can get a hold of and for some reason, they tend to reach more conservatively minded folks on the weekends. This trend has been holding since at least August.

I guess Obama's supporters are too busy canvassing and phonebanking to sit by their phones waiting for Gallup to call. ;)

[yellowcanine]

21. I have noticed this phenom since 1992 - Pubbies do better in weekend tracking polls.

I don't know why it is, but it seems to be real.

[dennis4868]

13. I know Obama is talking about this...

but he has got to continue hammering home that it was McCain for the past 26 years deregulating the banks that led to the mess we are in. This has got to be made 100% clear to the voters. The poll would not be getting closer if this was being hammered home from Obama.

[Jennicut]

14. This is from Thursday to Saturday. Shock wore off a bit from financial mess

However, overall the trend towards people paying more attention to economics in this election is clear now. Does anyone know if they did daily polling in 2004?

[OmahaBlueDog]

17. Answer to WTF? Why is McSame getting closer?

1. This poll, I believe, encompasses the first day of the bailout when the stockmarket shot up thru the roof
2. One point variance, either way, isn't that big a move

[dennis4868]

18. My point is....

there should be no reason that the polls got closer...even by a couple of points....with the horrible weak that McCain had. The American people are so stupid....

[OmahaBlueDog]

19. When the market was tanking, the change meme takes hold again

..but when the market starts rising, people start thinking "false alarm.. the economy isn't dissolving." Then people start drifting back to McSame, who is erceived to represent non-change, or "stability."

Also, McSame's week wasn't all bad (from their perspective).

[kurt_cagle]

23. Remember Thursday and Friday

Markets fell dramatically Monday through Wednesday, then screamed back to near parity (still down about 200 points or so) by Friday afternoon. A lot of people (who should frankly know better) regard the direction of the stock market as a good proxy for whether the economy is good or bad, and the news that Bush appears to have come up with a "plan" (even if its a three page "wish-list") likely made a lot of people step back and say "Wow, maybe Bush isn't that bad after all and we're out of the woods!".

My guess is that after Obama's reaction, the paucity of details and unfavorable press coverage, and what I'm suspecting will likely be a fairly brutal selloff again in the Asian and European markets, McCain's numbers will drop pretty dramatically this week.

[OmahaBlueDog]

24. I agree

The Sunday papers and plenty of articles are hinting at buyers remorse over the scope of the intervention.

Also, atsome point, I expect Bob Barr to start screaming at the small government, laizze faire Republicans, asking what the Hell they are possibly thinking here. I would not be shocked to see that have a minor, but errosive effect on Mr. McSame's numbers.

[yellowcanine]

20. Patience, folks. Democrats always lose ground in tracking polls over the weekends.

I don't know why it is but this is something I have noticed since 1992. The tracking poll gap always seemed to narrow between Bush and Clinton on weekends.

[backscatter712]

26. Yep.

It's weekend numbers, not unexpected.

We're still up by four, that's not half bad.

[PolNewf]

22. Pretty good weekend numbers for Obama n/t

[HughMoran]

25. Good stuff

I wouldn't worry about changes with the MOE - it's all good. Obama has made a huge comeback in one week - did you expect him to just keep increasing his lead from one poll to the next?