RE: How does 2008 compare with 2004?

[cjsmom44]

I wasn't as politically involved in 2004 as I am this year...tell me folks ...how do we look compared with 2004? Specifically electoral map, polls...trends?

[politicasista]

1. Not much comparison

But I am sure a few Kerry haters who will use this to bash Kerry to praise/promote Obama will say more. :sarcasm:


Ok. Sarcasm aside:

1. 2004 was post 9/11. (Bush was still seen as security man, likeable, etc).
2. The Iraq War was still popular (i.e. Bush polled near or at 50%).
3. The economy was still ok, gas prices were reasonable.
4. The media protected Bush 90% of the time, Rove was at his strongest.
5. McAuliffe was DNC Chairman.
6. The Fear Factor (i.e. terror alerts, Bible/gun ban, gay marriage, etc).

1. 2008 is now post Iraq Civil War, post Katrina, Gustav, Ike, Rita, etc.
2. The economy is really bad, gas and food prices have skyrocketed.
3. Job losses and foreclosures have also skyrocketed.
4. People are still without health insurance.
5. The media protects McCain 75% of the time. Bush/Cheney are lame ducks.
6. Dean is now DNC Chairman.
7. YouTube is here and the grassroots movement is stronger than 2004.

[WI_DEM]

2. this is from the recent Pew Poll out yesterday...

Age - Obama is running even better among voters under 30 years of age than did Kerry, who led Bush by 54% to 45% among voters younger than 30, according to 2004 national exit polls. Obama currently leads by 60% to 31% among this group.

Region - Compared with Kerry, Obama is running better in the Midwest and the West. Obama holds a small lead among Midwestern voters (48%-40%); four years ago, Bush narrowly carried voters in this region (51%-48%). Obama has a narrow edge in the West (51%-43%); in 2004, the West divided its votes nearly evenly between Bush and Kerry.

Gender - The gender gap is slightly larger today than it was four years ago on Election Day. McCain holds an eight-point lead among men but trails among women by 10 points. Bush beat Kerry by 11 points among men and trailed Kerry by three points among women. However, McCain holds a 48% to 41 lead over Obama among white women, who also backed President Bush over John Kerry - 55% to 44%.

Religion - McCain's support among white evangelical Protestants, a key Republican voter group, has inched up to 71% (Obama is supported by 21% of evangelicals). Based only on voters who express a preference between the two candidates, McCain's lead among evangelicals (77%-23%) is comparable to Bush's final margin among this group (78%-21%). McCain has a small edge among white Catholic voters, 48% to 41%. He also holds a clear lead among white Catholics who attend Mass at least weekly (52% McCain vs. 36% Obama). Four years ago, Bush beat Kerry 61% to 39% among this group.

http://people-press.org/report/450/presidential-race-remains-even