Bad news and good news via electoral-vote website.

[Eric J in MN]

Bad news: Obama is trailing by 10 electoral votes (based on their averages of state polls)

Good news: That is better than Kerry was doing on this day four years ago. Kerry trailed by 96 electoral votes at this point.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

(click on the right "This day in 2004" for four years ago)

[vaberella]

1. I'm fine with that. Obama was trailing significantly early in the primaries & then blew up.

I'm not too worried.

[dennis4868]

2. I see this as good news....

McCain is not at the magic number of 270 and I really feel that Obama will take MI, VA, and Colorado.....

[Phoonzang]

3. How the hell is he behind in New Mexico?

[Boz]

4. Polls and trolls polls and trolls, the Polls are skewed and the underreporting breaks in our favor

So tied or slightly behind is actually ahead for us.

[Eric J in MN]

5. That was over a week ago. Convention bounce.

Hopefully, the next NM poll will show Obama ahead.

[Phoonzang]

6. Ah....duh. I didn't think to look at the poll date.

I'm sure it will be much better this week or next.

[MarkBinPA]

7. Here's the Datbase Update

http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm

I have been noticing some Obama pick up in several of the bigger ones that update on a daily basis. Real Clear Politics has also shifted back to Obama. I suspect, if everything goes as normal, with the daily trackers moving to Obama, state polling is usually a week lag, so we may see better state polling in Obama's favor next week. We try and update this thing each day, many days more than once. It was nice to get some love from Marc Ambinder and Firedoglake yesterday.

[LynneSin]

8. All of those states we are behind are polls by rightwing leaning pollsters

Rasmussen uses 'likely voters' for their numbers which elimates all those newly registered voters AND people who perhaps just didn't make it out last major election cycle for whatever reason.

[MarkBinPA]

9. Differences

Which is why you see such extreme difference sin some of the 78 projection sites. Some use certain polling firm only. For our actual projection map at 3BlueDudes.com, we use all polls, and then average the most recent 4 together for one final number for each state. But,there are sites out there that don't even look at some firms polls.

[a kennedy]

10. Yeah LynneSin, I don't even bother with "likely voters" polls.....

thanks for the reminder. :pals: :patriot:

[iceman66]

11. You're seeing the effect of McCain's "bounce"

It is only today that Obama is pulling ahead again in the national polls, and there is always a lag with the state-by-state polls. I expect that by next week we should be slightly ahead in those as well.

What worries me is that it will be 'close enough to steal.'