ARG releases 25 new state polls

[Politics_Guy25]

Here they are:

Link: http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

September 17, 2008 - General Election Ballots

Presidential Ballots
State McCain Obama Other Undecided

AL 58% 36% 1% 5%
AK 55% 39% 2% 3%
AZ 56% 39% 1% 3%
CO 46% 44% 3% 7%
DE 40% 51% 1% 8%
DC 13% 82% - 4%
HI 32% 63% 2% 4%
ID 68% 25% - 6%
IL 45% 51% 1% 4%
KS 63% 31% - 6%
KY 57% 37% 1% 5%
LA 50% 43% 1% 6%
ME 41% 51% - 8%
MS 55% 39% 1% 5%
MO 50% 45% - 5%
MT 49% 47% 1% 4%
NV 49% 46% - 5%
NM 44% 51% - 5%
NY 38% 55% 2% 5%
NC 52% 41% 1% 6%
OH 50% 44% - 6%
RI 33% 59% - 8%
TX 57% 36% 1% 6%
UT 65% 29% - 6%
WV 49% 45% - 7%
WY 66% 28% - 5%

Click on each state for survey details. Totals may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Yeah, Obama has a bigger lead in new Mexico than in Illinois

That makes sense.

:rofl:

[tekisui]

14. NM is solid, now. And, MT is moving!

[Freddie Stubbs]

21. There are a lot of 'good ole boys' down state

Remember that he has only ran state-wide in IL once, and his opponent was Alan Keyes.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

2. The Indiana and Ilinois numbers don't make any sense. nt

[Connie_Corleone]

4. Indiana isn't on the list.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

24. See # 23. n/t

[bbgrunt]

5. ID = Idaho; IN = Indiana

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

22. I'm officially an idiot. nt

[PBS Poll-435]

7. I don't think that they polled Indiana.

:shrug:

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

23. Thanks, see # 22. After 8 years of idiocy in our government it seems to have rubbed off. nt

[SuperTrouper]

13. ARG never makes sense that is why they are the most discredited polling outfit in America

[nyccitizen]

3. Ouch. Only NM looks good... not so hot in OH, CO, NV...

Anyone have crosstabs/methodology info?

[Politics_Guy25]

9. Yeah it's at

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

Also I look at these polls as showing us within striking distance in historic red states rather than as neccessarily bad.

[Teaser]

15. Internals have us way up in indies in CO...

So how can we be behind? They must have some weird ass partisan balance going there.

In any event, the indy margin, if correct, means we'll win CO.

[WI_DEM]

20. what internals?

[Teaser]

26. 50-38 for Obama

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/CO08.html
If those numbers are right, we win, regardless of their topline numbers.

[cynatnite]

6. This is mostly solid red states n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. If It's Ok I'll Wait For A Reputable Pollster

~

[Bleacher Creature]

10. These are crap.

ARG has a terrible reputation. Also, some of these polls pre-date what appears to be a surge to Obama. Look at CO -- it was poll Sept. 10-13.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I Intutively Suspect About 80% Or So Of Them Are Right

That's decent for shooting free throws but it sucks for predicting the Electoral College...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I Intutively Suspect About 80% Or So Of Them Are Right

That's decent for shooting free throws but it sucks for predicting the Electoral College...

[Bleacher Creature]

30. Even if they are right, I'm happy to cede Sept. 10 to McCain.

I just want November 4th.

[Obamarulz11]

11. My thoughts

Colo -2..Will not last long
Ill +6..WTF!! thats not right
Louisiana...WOW -7 we were down 15 or 17 i cant remember.
Mizz -5 striking distance
Nevada...obtainable
new Mexico--yeah!
Ohio=BS

[ChairmanAgnostic]

12. Illinois 51-45? bushlit.

There is probably a 10 point spread here, minimum.

[terrya]

29. That's seriously bullshit.

McCain might be doing relatively ok in places like DuPage county.

But I think Obama will do relatively well Downstate. And if McCain were to get 10% here in Chicago, I'd be surprised.

[d_b]

16. lol

what's funny is that some DU'ers will believe it.

[WI_DEM]

19. some head scratching on some of these

For instance, Obama is doing better than +6 in Illinois.

I highly doubt that Obama is doing better in Louisiana than he is in North Carolina.

West Virginia is a pleasant surprise--but still can't believe Obama is doing better in WVA than in Ohio!

NY, RI, HI seem on target

NM confirms other polls

I think CO, MT, NV all within the moe is probably right. Either Obama has a small lead or McCain or it's tied.

[suston96]

25. You should include a link so we can "click on each state"......nt

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

27. I'm seeing 277 Evs for Obama with these polls and the most recent ones we have from the rest.

Even without CO, OH, FL, NV, ...if he can hold his lead in VA. Lots of ways for him to win here if he doesn't hold VA by taking two of these, which ARG has within striking distance: CO (-2), MT (-2), NV (-3), WV (-4).

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

28. State polls always lag well behind national ones.

Last week, we were all touting state polls that had Obama with leads. Those polls have now shifted towards McCain a bit. That's not unexpected, as they're just now reflecting the post-convention bounce. Expect a new round of state polls to shift back to pre-conventions status in a week or two.