The Daily Widget – Wed 9/17 – O-269, M-269 – Obama’s Demographic Gap States

[phrigndumass]

1. ANALYSIS

We had a nice break yesterday from the blizzard of state polls. Only five polls were released for four states. New Jersey and Vermont are still blue, Ohio is still red, and New York returns to the Strong blue column today. The New York poll alone cuts McCain’s very small popular vote lead in half. Obama now trails in the popular vote by a couple hundred thousand votes out of 127 million expected to be cast in November. And trading is UP today!

I dug through my rainy day box and found something interesting to share with you. I was curious to see which states currently have the biggest gaps in support for Obama regarding the demographics of age and gender. We are aware that in most states Obama has more support among young voters and female voters, so I’ve come up with two Top 10 lists to show where the gaps are the widest.

(A few words of caution … this information is not intended to locate sexism or ageism on a map. It is meant merely to show which states have more partisan support among certain demographics, and where the Obama campaign might have an opportunity to improve his message and with whom. Please don’t cry bigotry because that’s not what these lists show.)

Some of these results may surprise you …

Top 10 Age Gap States (Democratic support among younger over older voters)
1. Alabama, 41.0 point difference
2. Maryland, 28.0 point difference
3. Illinois, 27.0 point difference
4. Wyoming, 25.5 point difference
5. Oklahoma, 25.0 point difference
6. South Carolina, 24.5 point difference
7. Alaska, 23.0 point difference
8. North Carolina, 21.0 point difference
9. Vermont, 20.5 point difference
10. New Hampshire, 20.0 point difference

Top 10 Gender Gap States (Democratic support among female over male voters)
1. Alabama, 19.5 point difference
2. Tennessee, 15.5 point difference
3. Wisconsin, 15.5 point difference
4. Maryland, 15.0 point difference
5. New Jersey, 14.5 point difference
6. New York, 13.0 point difference
7. Georgia, 12.5 point difference
8. Ohio, 10.5 point difference
9. North Carolina, 10.0 point difference
10. Texas, 9.5 point difference

Only three states made both Top 10 lists: Alabama, Maryland and North Carolina. I was surprised to see Illinois as the #3 age gap state, but then I remembered that Illinois used to be a red state and that’s something the older folks around here like to hold on to. Wisconsin appearing on the gender gap chart surprised me as well, and I guess that could partly explain why that state is always close in the polls.


2. NEW STATE POLLS


New Jersey Obama 49, McCain 41 (Monmouth University, 9/14, +/- 4.0, 589 LV)
New Jersey Obama 48, McCain 45 (Quinnipiac University, 9/14, +/- 2.8, 1187 LV)
New York Obama 55, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 9/15, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Ohio Obama 44, McCain 48 (Public Policy Polling, 9/14, +/- 3.0, 1077 LV)
Vermont Obama 55, McCain 36 (Research 2000, 9/13, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.





4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.


5. OBAMA’S EIGHTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Eighteen” is the group of 18 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the eighteen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1800 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Eighteen” swing states total from the Obama’s Eighteen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1800.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Eighteen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.


6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

[tekisui]

1. NC is proving to be a battleground!

I am so excited. Tomorrow I am going to volunteer my first shift with the campaign. No more Free-Riding!

:bounce: :hi:

[phrigndumass]

3. Tell them to target older men there, okay? :)

NC made both lists, strange.

Thanks for working for our team!

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

2. Good morning, phrigndumass!

Interesting info in that rainy day box. Thanks for sharing. :)

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

4. I was expecting to see a gender gap among Mainers

It's not as big of a gap as I thought, lol

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

6. ok, what is it?

I'm curious too! :D

[phrigndumass]

8. Only a 9 point difference

It almost made the Top 10, but there are a lot of other states with 9 point differences for a gender gap :D

:bounce:

[davidpdx]

5. The demographics are interesting

I just hope the numbers start swinging back the other way soon. If not, I may start chewing on my toenails (yes I know, yuck!)

[phrigndumass]

9. The numbers have stopped falling, so that's a good sign :)

National polls and trading are starting to turn around as well, so the state polls can't be far behind.

If you have your dog lick your toes first, the toenails won't be as chewy :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[davidpdx]

12. No, dog but I do have a cat

He'll lick your nose, but watch out he bites too.

[jefferson_dem]

7. Thanks phrigndumass!

Your math and analyses are always appreciated. You rock!

[phrigndumass]

10. yw :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[d_b]

11. I still say we take OH and VA

[phrigndumass]

13. Fingers crossed, hope you're right!

I can't wait to see the registration numbers for Ohio and Virginia. My projections will be far more accurate with that data. We'll know in a couple weeks :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

14. Off to work kick

:kick: Enjoy your day

[a kennedy]

15. Thanks phrigndumass.

:hug: :patriot:

[phrigndumass]

26. yw :)

:hi:

[grantcart]

16. Daily Kos cross tabs are interesting

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/17


McCain/Palin's favorble ratings are tanking and they now lead in only one region - the South.

Obama needs to get his number among whit voters up to 40% and then it is a landslide.

[phrigndumass]

27. I'm working on adding the data from DK/R2K and Hotline trackers into the monster spreadsheet

Should be interesting. 40% is the number to watch among beige-skinned folks!

[grantcart]

17. I suggest that Florida be put into a special 'no polling zone' and not counted

for either candidate until the election is over.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=132

The Obama campaign has committed almost $ 40 million and has identified millions of registered voters and unregistered voters that they are committed getting out to the polls, any polling there has to be considered Alice in Wonderland as the unprecendented steps that the Obama campaign is undertaking there undermine any pollsters attempt to give weight based on past experience.

[phrigndumass]

28. LOL :)

How about we count the polls but add a little salt?

$40 million :crazy: :crazy: !!! Makes me feel good. (hope we can afford it!) (donate!!!)

[gratefultobelib]

18. Nervous Nellie here! Your calm and reassuring words are always so

helpful to me--as well as your colorful graphs, most of which I don't understand! Actually I'm too nervous to concentrate on them, I think.

Just FYI--I'm a 66-yr-old white woman, voted for Hillary in the primary, and absolutely working my tail off for Barack here in Missouri. I'm a Neighborhood Team Organizer, and the ground game here is amazing. My team alone is responsible for 13,000 voters from whom we will cull the undecided voters and "touch" them several times between now and the election. I consider what I am doing a labor of love.

Looking forward to your continued threads of hope!

[phrigndumass]

29. Wow, that is ORGANIZED!

The ground game will push us right over the top this year. It's being run like a local race, but all throughout the country. Please drop in and give us an update on Missouri occasionally, but only if you have time!

We've been helping in St. Louis when we have time to travel there, usually a couple weekend days a month :D

[progressive_realist]

19. What's up with CO?

You have it in the "leans McCain" column on the five-column chart, but it is light blue on your map. Are you using different methodologies for these two displays, or is one an error?

BTW, great job with this post. It is one of the first things I look for everyday.

[phrigndumass]

30. Colorado is trading blue at 54.90 ... (50.00 is a majority)

It's rare when this happens ... Colorado is polling red but trading blue. We color it blue on the map to show it either trading or polling for Obama (see note on map below).

Thanks for your kind words! :hi:

[grantcart]

20. PPP shows Virginia blue

[phrigndumass]

31. Great! I haven't looked at today's polls yet, but I know there were tons of them

The PPP poll could be enough to push Virginia over to our side by tomorrow's post.

:woohoo:

[grantcart]

21. Interesting how WV keeps moving left - almost ready to move another column left

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7095678

[phrigndumass]

32. I agree with cliffordu, lol

It's the economy, stupid.

Did I see a poll showing Obama leading in Illinois by only 6 today?

[Major Hogwash]

22. Wait a minute, are you saying that in Alabama more women than men are Democrats?

Because if that's the case, I think I might move there.

[phrigndumass]

33. That's your line, lol

"Hey baby, I'm a Democrat ..."

:rofl:

[RiverStone]

23. Morning P., when do you think this good news will start to swing the numbers...

Back to a clear popular vote lead?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110446/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-McCain-45.aspx

Obama has come from 5 behinds behind, to 2 points ahead. :)

Thanks! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

34. There were at least 20 state polls released today, so watch for tomorrow's post :)

I haven't had a chance yet to dig into them, but I hear it's good news for us! (Except for Illinois?)

Thanks for sharing the Gallup link, I hadn't seen that yet today! Happy happy joy joy!!!

:hi:

[grantcart]

24. WHAT DID I TELL YOU CNN HAS FLORIDA TIED

[phrigndumass]

36. OKAY!

THANKS FOR SHARING THAT! I WONDER WHAT PALIN'S FAVORABILITIES LOOK LIKE IN THE FLORIDA POLL. DID YOU HAPPEN TO CATCH THAT?

CAN YOU HEAR ME?

:hide:

[FVZA_Colonel]

25. From what I'd seen Obama had been behind for a while, so for him to be up to a tie

with McCain is good news, for the moment.

[phrigndumass]

37. Agreed! He ain't winnin' but he ain't losin' either!

But this all may change by tomorrow morning, tons of good news in the polls today I think.

:hi:

[Lochloosa]

35. This is BULLSHIT!

Cause there are few new polls to consider. :evilgrin:

[phrigndumass]

38. At least 20 of them, I better get to work on those :)

:D

[Laura PourMeADrink]

39. You are a well paid DU staffer, aren't you? :) I know it must

take hours, and hours, and hours, and hours to pull this all together.

The way I look at it....shows where we are and how much better we will look
as he rises from the Palin ashes (she self-combusted) !

Thank you for all the selfless hours you spend. You rock.

[phrigndumass]

40. They should double my salary! (too bad I make $0)

The monster spreadsheet makes it very easy to add everything ... almost done and it's looking very good for Obama!

Might I say that your rock status is way up there as well? :headbang:

Thanks :D

[McCamy Taylor]

41. Ohio needs to be blue. With Dem state gov will be hard for GOP to steal this election

the way they did in 2004. A lot of work poured into Ohio should pay off better than it will in Florida where we can absolutely count on massive GOP election fraud. In Virginia, there is a GOP SOS and state DA I believe but a Dem gov, so there may be some GOP election fraud, same in Michigan. However, the Dem governor will be able to exert some influence to keep it less overt than it will be in Florida.

If Obama is rolling in cash and has lots of volunteers, I do not disagree with forcing McCain to waste money in Florida, since he can not win without that state. However, the politics of the South are such that GOP election fraud will be much more blatant and Democratic voters will more easily allow themselves to be kept from the polls through intimidation by police and others, because they know that threats of violence and unlawful prosecution have real teeth.

On the other hand, Michigan, Ohio and even Virginia (a less deep South state) will have different Democratic voter responses to perceived voter suppression. More anger and determination to make votes count. Therefore, if the Dems have a big get out the vote drive and a large presence at the polls to counter the GOP disruptive/suppressive presence and especially if they have lawyers ready to go to court to keep inner city polls open longer if necessary if the lines are backed up because biased SOS's have allocated insufficient resources to Democratic precincts, I think that several of the battleground states besides Florida can go to Obama.

Also, the Dems need to have a vocal presence with the MSM stressing that provisional votes need to be counted if it looks like any of the states have stripped lots of lawful Dems from the rolls and are making them cast provisional ballots so that Fox does not try to call the election prematurely before all the votes are counted.

And scientific exit polls that are reported to the public are a must. And state that tries to interfere with polls as Ohio did in 2004 must be assumed to be planning election fraud.

Also, need to keep up the 50 state strategy, to keep up the nationwide vote total, because the GOP will try to use E-vote fraud in red states (especially Texas) to pad McCain's vote to try to make it look as if he has won the popular vote in case there is a close electoral vote. So, people in NY and California and all the blue states need to be encouraged to get out to vote to make it clear that Obama has total numbers not just electoral votes. Even though Obama will not win Texas, encourage Obama supporters in the urban areas of Texas and in the Valley to get out to vote. This will also help the local Democrats and Congress!

[phrigndumass]

42. This is a good analysis of this election cycle, nice reply :)

Of course the easiest way to avoid most of the entanglements of a fixed election in some states is to win big. After looking at today's state polls (37 polls released since I posted this OP), I'm still holding out hope for a possible landslide victory. The probability of this happening is less than 10% right now, though. So chances are that it will be a close election.

That being said, I agree we need to work the states and the election infrastructure in each state. Election fraud will be put under a microscope in an Obama presidency, so the republicans this year will be walking on broken glass. The more it appears that Obama will win by a healthy margin (beyond 3% or 4% nationwide), the chances become smaller that the republicans will use their fraud mechanisms. It would be too obvious. They don't want to get caught red-handed and reveal their playbook.

After today's polls, Obama is leading in the electoral vote but McCain is leading in the popular vote. This fact brings your last paragraph to light. The red states became redder today, including Texas.

:hi: