The Daily Widget – Tues 9/16 – O-269, M-269 – Delaware Strong; Colorado Weakens

[phrigndumass]

1. ANALYSIS

Leave Virginia alone! You may be wondering why yesterday’s poll showing Obama leading in Virginia didn’t change the state blue on our map. Glad you asked! When five or eight different polls are conducted in a state within one week, adding another poll to the mix and averaging them doesn’t move it much. But Virginia is on the edge of changing blue, as McCain’s average lead over Obama in Virginia has diminished to less than 0.1% (it is displayed as -0.0% on the six-column chart, see Figure 3c below).

However, a brazillianth new poll for Colorado was released yesterday which did cause a change on our map. It shows McCain leading by two. After averaging them all, Colorado moves from the Lean Obama column to the Lean McCain column today. It didn’t take much to move it, since it was teetering on the fence anyway, and it won’t take much to move it back.

We finally see a new poll for Delaware, Joe Biden’s stomping ground. It has been over six months since Delaware was polled. Obama was leading McCain by 9 in February, and his lead has grown to 13 points. So we move Delaware from the Weak Obama column to the Strong Obama column today.

Three new polls for Ohio were released yesterday, all of them revealing a slight lead for McCain. Other new polls for New York and Oregon show way too many Undecided voters to be taken seriously, while Foxmussen has Pennsylvania tied. Again, seriously?

McCain still holds an insignificant popular vote lead, but it has tightened a tad since yesterday. Trading for Obama for the Wigand set of states drops less than a point today, while trading for Obama’s Eighteen jumps 10 points, a good sign.


2. NEW STATE POLLS


Colorado Obama 46, McCain 48, Barr 1, Nader 3 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Delaware Obama 55, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 9/13, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 44, McCain 49, Barr 2, Nader 2 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New York Obama 46, McCain 41 (Siena College, 9/10, +/- 3.9, 626 LV)
Ohio Obama 42, McCain 46, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Suffolk University, 9/13, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 45, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 9/14, +/- 3.8, 692 LV)
Ohio Obama 45, McCain 48, Barr 0, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Oregon Obama 43, McCain 37 (Ivan Moore Research, 9/11, +/- 5.0, 400 RV)
Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 47, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Utah Obama 32, McCain 64 (Rasmussen, 9/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 50, McCain 46 (Survey USA, 9/14, +/- 3.7, 732 LV)
Virginia Obama 48, McCain 48, Barr 0, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)



Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.





4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.


5. OBAMA’S EIGHTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Eighteen” is the group of 18 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the eighteen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1800 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Eighteen” swing states total from the Obama’s Eighteen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1800.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Eighteen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.


6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

[davidpdx]

1. E-gads, I hope those numbers improve

We need some good news. On the bright side, Indiana, Colorado, Virgina and Ohio are within striking distance.

[phrigndumass]

5. I would bet on Virginia and Colorado, at least

A tie is not a loss, thanks to our advantage in the House.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Demeter]

2. Oh, P-Man, This Doesn't Look Good

I know that the polls lag a week, but still....that's quite a deficit to fill up. Any hope or counter-intelligence to offer us?

[phrigndumass]

4. Remember, the polls are still front-loaded with the republican convention bounce

Those polls taken just after the republican convention will drop off soon and won't be averaged in with the new polls. Next week will show a clearer picture :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[backscatter712]

3. Is America really this fucking stupid?

I swear to God I will disown this country if an Alaskan bimbo is all it takes to get all the willfully morons in this country to vote against their own self interest.

Are we really this dumb?

Shit like this really makes me ashamed to be an American.

[phrigndumass]

7. Yes, lol ... but the state polls are still seeing the republican bounce

It'll turn around soon ...

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

6. Good Morning!

:hi: :bounce:

[phrigndumass]

8. Hey you!

Is your house still sick? Hope it's gotten better by now ...

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

9. We are all better!

Knock on wood!

No more lake in the back yard?

[phrigndumass]

10. Great :)

A river ran through it. Good thing it kept on going, it's all receded now. We floated toy boats yesterday :D

[phrigndumass]

11. Off to work kick

:kick: Have a good day

[grantcart]

12. k and r

[phrigndumass]

15. Kurt and Rod?

:D

[MadBadger]

13. Ive moved my 306-232 prediction back to 286 - 252.

I had Obama winning OH, but now with the new PPP poll, its back in McCain's column.

[phrigndumass]

14. That's probably wise at this moment in time :)

Obama's average in Ohio is trailing McCain's by 1.6 points (trailing 1.9 points after the new PPP poll)

:hi:

[Time for change]

16. Thank you phrig -- very interesting

I have some questions for you:

1. What is it that causes your numbers to deviate from some of the others -- like EVcom and 538com

2. This question may be partly redundant with the first, but how do you decide what weight to give the various polls? Is there a cutoff date for counting them, or do you weight them based on recency of date or some other means?

3. I notice that you have Nevada blue and Colorado red, and yet those numbers are reversed with respect to the trading numbers for the Obama 18. Can you explain that?

[phrigndumass]

21. All very good questions! :)

I'll give them a shot ...

1. Let's use 538com and EVcom as examples. My tracking is most like that of EVcom, as they are both "snapshots" of a moment in time, not true projections. There are only a couple differences between mine and EVcom's tracking: First, I use all the polls, while they don't use partisan polls; and secondly, I don't show states as tied and they do (there are no ties on election day). 538com is a model unlike either of ours ... it is a true projection of what the results will be on election day given the current polls (both state and national) and historical data. It's interesting to track all three side by side because of these differences.

2. To me, a poll is either good or bad, useful or useless. I don't rate or weight the pollsters, but I do give a poll either a score equal to the state's electoral votes, or zero, depending on whether it's a good poll or not. Polls that are outdated (beyond 35 days) or show high Undecideds (greater than 10%) are considered bad or useless polls, and when used I weight them with 0 electoral votes, which I call a Strength of Projection score. All polls for each state are currently averaged over the past two weeks with full strength (if it applies), and then they maintain their strength score until they reach 35 days old but are no longer used in the average.

3. Nevada is polling blue on average but trading red, and Colorado is polling red on average but trading blue. Take a peek at Figure 3c in the OP for how each state is currently polling on average. Obama is leading in Nevada by 0.4 points, while he is trailing in Colorado by 0.2 points. I should actually have Colorado shown as blue on the map since it is trading blue, so thanks for catching that!

Did this help? :hi:

[Time for change]

26. Yes, thanks, that helps a lot

Just a couple of things I still don't understand though. I'm trying to understand this better because... well, because I want to know who's going to win the election :)

You say that polls are averaged over 2 weeks but maintain their strength score for 35 days. I don't understand that. It's not clear to me whether the polling averages reflect 2 weeks or 35 days.

You say that Colorado should be shown as blue on the map since it is trading blue. So does that mean that Nevada should be shown as red since it's trading red? And what accounts for the differences between what they're trading and polling? Is that the difference between a one time snap shot vs. a projection, or does it have to do with the slightly different methodologies for computing the polling averages?

[phrigndumass]

27. I'd like to know who's going to win as well, lol

(I'm betting on Obama)

Two weeks for state polls, 35 days for the nationwide picture ...

State polls are averaged over 2 weeks to show which candidate is leading in a certain state.

Strength of Projection (35 days) is used to judge how the nation as a whole is leaning, and with what level of confidence. I sometimes refer to this as "momentum" ... or which candidate currently has more momentum.

Instead of adding up all the electoral votes on a map and giving each candidate a nationwide result, 269 to 269 for instance (this is what EVcom does), I derive the nationwide result from the difference between each candidate's electoral votes beyond the margin of error and use the Strength of Projection (momentum) multiplier to score the states within the margin of error. It takes the bias away from the pollsters for the most part.

Here's a quick hypothetical: If McCain were leading in Colorado polls by an average of 0.3 points the day before the election, but Obama held a nationwide momentum advantage of +0.4 over McCain, Colorado would probably tip to Obama on election day instead of going to McCain, even though McCain had a slight lead in Colorado polling.

I have a somewhat complex formula for these calculations, but the gist or goal of the formula is described above.

:hi:

[Time for change]

29. Thank you phrig

[phrigndumass]

28. About the red and blue ...

The note on the map below should help. If a state is either polling or trading blue, I should have that state shown as blue on the map. It's a potentials map. Since Colorado is polling red but trading blue, it should be blue on the map because at least one of the two outcomes is blue. Same for Nevada. :D



(I'm changing Colorado to blue now so I don't forget, lol ... hope it's still trading blue tomorrow)

[Greyskye]

17. Thanks for the 3c mod

Nice and subtle. :thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

18. yw :)

I was going for subtle, lol

:hi:

[MarjorieG]

19. Would love CO, but having lived there, know how conservative and Dobson whacky it can be.

The state is more than college Boulder and mixed Denver. Golden is Coors, which has fascist family roots.

[phrigndumass]

22. Let's hope Colorado continues its trend toward being a blue state :)

Have a peek at the Colorado chart at this link:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_changing_partisan_landscap.php

Colorado has been becoming bluer as each year goes by in this decade.

:hi:

[Kukesa]

20. K & R! We'll work harder here in Ohio. n/t

[phrigndumass]

23. Thanky varmuch :)

:hi:

[anneboleyn]

24. Okay, this is based on anecdotal evidence, but I say Indiana may go blue, first time since 1964

We have seen only (and numerous) Obama signs around Indianapolis and in some of the smaller academic towns (which is to be expected, but there were fairly few Kerry signs in 2004). Obama signs are *everywhere* -- at the local Wal-Mart, the local gas stations, etc. The situation here is very bad and I would not be surprised if Indiana went blue for the first time since 1964. A lot of the particulars are similar in terms of the poor economic situation.

[phrigndumass]

25. Let's hope you're right :)

Bush won Indiana in 2004 by 21 points, so an Obama win would be a sweet victory. I'm sure the Obama campaign has a great strategy for the final stretch in Indiana! It won't come easily, though.

:hi:

[Meshuga]

30. Great job here...

I look forward to the next post since I am sure McCain has peaked and Obama can only go up from this point.

[phrigndumass]

31. Fingers crossed :)

Slow day for polls today, no changes so far.

Thanks :hi: