I am changing my name to Alice, because I must have fallen down a rabbit hole

[renie408]

I just checked RCP and it has McCain leading Obama by 1.6%

How can that BE? I live in SC and in 2004 the only Kerry stickers we saw were on the backs of our cars. Now we see Obama stickers and yard signs dotted all over. EASILY as many or more than McCain signs, etc. I personally know at least four people who previously voted GOP who are committed to voting for Obama this time around. And I know many more who were solidly GOP who are undecided right now. My son is a senior in high school and many of his friends who can vote for the first time are voting Obama. The media is FINALLY decided to grow a set and are taking the Repukes on. McCain is one of the worst public speakers I have ever seen, he is representing the party that has over seen one of the worst eight years the US has ever seen, his running mate is a goddam pageant queen, they have to LIE about their crowd sizes because they can't draw a third of what Obama does, Obama out fundraised them by 20 million dollars and...Obama is still behind in national tracking polls by 1.6 points. WHAT THE FUCK?

I was thinking maybe it was race or maybe Americans are WAY more fucked up than I thought, but then I got to thinking maybe it isn't Americans that is fucked up; it's the tracking polls. Is there any way these polls could be misleading? Like they aren't asking the right people the right questions? How do poll takers 'get' to the people they call? If you are on the national 'Do not call' list, do you get called? What could account for the disconnect between what I am seeing personally, watching nationally on TV and what the polls are saying?

[truthisfreedom]

1. Don't think about it. The popular vote is mostly meaningless. Obama has the electorate.

And that's what counts.

[renie408]

4. I hear you, but I am seriously curious to know if there is a glitch in the way

these polls are taken. Also, whether we like to think it or not, people like to bet on what they perceive to be 'winners'. Leading in polls offers McCain some momentum and leads people to believe that his message is being well received by SOMEBODY.

And you know what? I don't WANT McCain to lead in polls. I want him to get his ass solidly KICKED cause that is what he deserves. That last part is a little juvenile, but I can't help it.

[Boz]

6. Its built in lag, it reports on poll a few days after they are taken, the pollsters

report their finding a few days after they take their polls and the news of the day takes several days to be reflected in polls as it take a few days for the info to get out to the people they are polling.

The reality is if you go back and look for places that you would expect peaks they lag about 7-12 days average.

So what was the scenario 12 days ago? Repub bounce, it will go away in about 5 days.

[Skittles]

2. they lie about all kinds of numbers

it's not a stretch to believe they'd lie about polls too

[No Elephants]

3. Of course polls can be misleading, or they would all have a record of

100% accuracy and none of them do.

Second, regardless of whatever the story with the polls may be, do not let yourself rise and fall with polls. They have been up and down all along; and the only poll that matters occurs on a Tuesday in November.

Fourth, I invite you to chant my mantra. Focus. Donate Volunteer. Vote.

[Boz]

5. Its reporting a week or so lag on polls that are lagged by 5-12, that puts the numbers pretty square

in the end of the Repugs convention or the early following week, wait about 7-9 days and you will see a total torq as the bounce ACTUALLY fades out of this measure and this weeks Dem successes start to take shape.

[OmmmSweetOmmm]

7. The pollsters are lying, so when they steal the election again, the pollsters won't look

stupid.

[JanMichael]

8. because the younger generations are being polled correctly: cellphones

aren't called.