|
Other than the fact that it's a beautiful Monday morning here in Washington DC, there seem to be a lot of good reasons to be positive this morning. First of all, there are signs that the post-convention bounce from John McCain is dying. Looking at the Gallup daily tracking poll, Obama's closed 5 points on McCain from last Sunday to yesterday, and is now within the margin of error once again. That this occurred without any serious game changing kind of event is a sign that the polls will probably revert back to normal - an Obama edge of a couple of points - within a week or so. Even with the convention bounces, however, Obama still seemed to be doing well in state polls, which as we well know are more important. Yes, leads dwindled and in some cases were lost, but nary a Kerry state seemed ready to turn red, while post-convention bounces still showed deadheats in red states like Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and even Florida. The battleground might have contracted slightly, with some of the more hopeful outliers moving back off the table (such as Alaska and perhaps the Dakotas), but New Mexico, Iowa, and Nevada look increasingly blue, and Florida is shockingly still up for grabs. If the post convention bounces can't shift those states solidly into McCain territory, that's very, very good news for the months ahead.
More importantly, however, is that the post convention McCain media surge seems to have subsided as well. The close proximity of the two conventions really did give the GOP an advantage, as the DNC didn't have any time to simmer in the mind and hearts of the American public before all the attention shifted to McCain. As such, the media coverage also got to dwindle on the RNC for much longer than what we got. This seems to have come to an end, however. A quick glance at the headlines at such sites as CNN.com, MSNBC.com, the Politico, Roll Call, National Journal, and other sites show that the post convention McCain/Palin-media lovefest is over, with the headlines now either focusing (neutrally or positively) on Obama again or negatively on McCain (ie. Rove's quote). I think the major event that caused this paradigm shift was the lipstick fiasco -- even a complicit MSM seemed to agree that it was much ado about nothing and made them eager to hammer on McCain again.
The two other reasons I'm feeling good today aren't new, but they take on new importance given what's stated above. The first biggie is the upcoming debates (which start next week). By most counts, Obama/Biden should do very, very well in those (expectations game notwithstanding.) The second is the financial advantage. McCain had to burn his remaining money on ads before the convention and the start of public financing, which I might add definitely had an overlooked impact on the turning of the polling tide, perhaps as much as the convention bounce did. That advantage shifts mightly to Obama now, who raised $66 million in August and has $77 million cash on hand as of September 1, with two months of fundraising left. McCain has $84 million in public financing, but can't raise another penny (except for legal expenses.) In other words, if Obama can even just halve that August total in September and October, that would give him an astounding financial advantage of $143 million to $84 million. The simple fact of the matter is that Obama can spend McCain under each of his seven kitchen tables.
Of course, that doesn't happen without DUers and other patriotic Americans making a donation to the Obama campaign. I'm making mine right now - with a hop in my step, I might add. If you can't donate, volunteer, register voters, and help people get to the ballot box on election day. We can make this happen folks - we can change our world this November!
|
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
