Rasmussen daily tracking graph for 9/14/08 - McCain 50, Obama 47 (both up 1)

[DavidDvorkin]

These are the results with leaners. Rasmussen is only going to report the with-leaners results from now on.








These Rasmussen graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[Kdillard]

1. Isn't it McCain 50- Obama 47

[Hope And Change]

3. Yes, he mixed the names or the numbers dependig how you see it.

[Hope And Change]

2. I also posted this in another thread but it didn`t get much attention...

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows McCain leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while Obama has the edge in states with 193 votes. When “leaners” are included, shows Obama leading 259-247 (see Quick Campaign Overview). A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Kdillard]

4. Yep that is very important and what we need to keep focused on Obama is ahead in the EV count.

[fjc]

20. Not according to RCP.

McCain 227
Obama 207
Tossup 104

[Kdillard]

24. Well this poll had him in the lead with the EV count so go figure.

Seriously the only polls I am going to worry about is the one on Nov 4th.

[Hope And Change]

25. I fully agree with you Kdillard.We shouldn`t get too worked up by the polls.

There`s a long way to go.We just have to continue to work hard to get Obama/Biden elected!

[kayell]

5. Ramussen is a hard-core repuke firm owned by a evangelical christian. WHY would you possibly want to

post their polls. They have an endorsement on their website from BILL FRIST. Ya think they might be able to bias those polls just a bit?

:eyes:

[dennis4868]

6. so this means...

their polling numbers are wrong?

[warrior1]

7. They poll 50/50

So yes they're wrong. We have more people registering as Democrats than they do and their polls don't reflect that.

[dems_rightnow]

28. They don't poll 50-50

"Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. During the final two months of Election 2008, paty weighting targets are updated each Sunday (see additional information). For polling data released during the week of September 14-20, 2008, the targets are 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. For the previous week, the targets were 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated."

[my3boyz]

8. Funny how the media never uses Rasmussen as one of the "legitimate" firms. nt

[gaiilonfong]

9. Their numbers SKEW reTHUGlican

yes McPALIN has his thug base but Obama polls bad on weekends, so I consider this not bad......I am hopefull this week it will have Obama at least 1 point ahead, they are only including the leaners in the poll from now on...and remember, they don't call cell phones because PIGS in lipstick don't use them enough

[maseman]

10. No

Just because you have a Republican or Democratic poll does not mean they are wrong. What is wrong is to look at one poll and make deep assumptions. Using Real Clear Politics to look at an aggregate is the most objective way of looking at poll data.

Also looking at states polls to tally electoral votes is crucial.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Rass Is .O6 Off From The Aggregate Results*

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/


Except they include leaners

[kayell]

17. Oh, no. Surely they wouldn't bias their polling methods. Republicans are way too honest for that.

:sarcasm:

[Boba Fett]

11. I cant believe its this close.

[Sugarcoated]

15. The first black man to run for president?

And knowing the Republican's are so dishonorable they smear Veterans to win? And lie pathologically?

And you thought it wouldn't be close? Get real

[Boba Fett]

34. You are right. My bad.

[DavidDvorkin]

13. Oops! Sorry. Fixed the Subject line.

I guess that was wishful thinking on my part.

[fugop]

14. change in party i.d.

Looks like they changed their weighting by party i.d. from yesterday to today. It's gone from a 7+-point Democratic advantage yesterday to a 5+-point Democratic advantage today. Am I reading that right, or will the new weighting start with today's sample?

(On edit: Ah, I think that change starts today. So they'll be narrowing the gap between the parties starting with today's interviews.)

[DavidDvorkin]

18. That doesn't seem justified

They mention the greater enthusiasm among McCain supporters than among Obama supporters lately, but I still think Democratic turnout will be huge.

Maybe they're trying to account for vote suppression!

[DavidDvorkin]

16. I'm wondering if there'll be another thread today in GD:P accusing

people who post depressing poll numbers of being Fifth Columnists. There've been a few such threads in the past.

FYI, I'm not a Fifth Columnist. I'm a longtime Democrat and a solid Obama supporter who's now very depressed. I don't see any point in reacting to these daily tracking polls by shouting that all polls are bullshit or that Rasmussen is biased. It's equivalent to putting your fingers in your ears and saying, "La la la la, I can't hear you."

[kayell]

19. I haven't accused and won't but I question WHY you feel it necessary to post such

obviously possibly distorted numbers. Why you feel it necessary to pass on your depression to everyone else. I don't know your reasons. I don't want to know your reasons. I just know that this crap is totally counterproductive.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. In Aggregate Polling It's McSame 47.4 -Obama 45%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[Teaser]

26. I don't know that this is "depressing"

after all, it includes that big bump from 9/11 and a change in partisan identification.

[DCBob]

21. I still believe they skew their results tremendoulsy towards McCain

They have never had Obama up by more few points even at his highest peaks. Also, most of McCain's gains appear to just be making red states redder.

[book_worm]

23. We own Iowa! new poll out gives Obama a 12-point lead. A Bush state swinging to Obama!

[DavidDvorkin]

27. There's some light in the gloom

My gloom. Our gloom. The gloom of some of us, including me.

[geek tragedy]

29. McCain had a big spike on Thursday night's polling.

That should go away in tomorrow's polling, so it should be much closer starting tomorrow.

[DavidDvorkin]

30. But he went up from yesterday

So his real daily numbers haven't gone down.

[geek tragedy]

31. Obama went up too. The spread is what I'm concerned with. n/t

[mvd]

32. The bad news: McCain 50%

The good news: it's just one poll, and often Gallup and Rasmussen go opposite ways.

[RagAss]

33. Fuck Rasmussen ! They ain't Jack Shit !