the only polls that matter are the first tuesday in november

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the goal of campaign strategy is to use your limited resources (time, money, chits, etc.) over the course of the campaign so as to win the most electoral votes on election day. it's all about positioning the candidate for that day.

sometimes you need to convert your resources from one form to another. for example, you might have to invest time and money to earn chits (political favors) that you can cash in at a more opportune time (e.g., obama spent time and probably money earning the clintons' support and fundraising)

ONE of many measures of how well a campaign is doing is daily polling. however, these don't show who's in a better position to win in november, they just take a snapshot at a point in time. anyone (well, not me -- it's just an expression) can lead a marathon by pissing away all their energy early, but this is not a winning strategy. and temporarily losing the lead is not cause for panic. time to focus on executing a winning strategy, sure, but this should always be the focus. any early lead can be ephemeral, yours or the opponent's.


just as an example, mclain could piss away a ton of money on advertising, leaving him in the lead but broke. this would leave him ill-prepared to respond to a well-timed barrage of ads from obama right before the election.

in this case, obama got a convention bounce in the polls, now they get their bounce. no big surprise here. the obama campaign has not been out there expending a ton of resources trying to fight mclame in the daily polls during a time when the media is naturally going to focus on him and his veep choice. it's wise to husband your resources at this point. he quietly raised $10 million the day after falin's speech. i'm sure he's also been planning upcoming events and tactics, earning more chits, raising more funds, etc. laying the groundwork for the later stage.


a campaign is a narrative. a story. you can't presume to know the end of the story even if things seem good for the bad guy somewhere in the middle of the story. in fact, sometimes the closeness is an important ingredient in the winning strategy. a close race, or at least the perception of closeness, helps to motivate supporters to donate, work, call, and actually show up to vote.

in fact, always having a lead is NOT a good long-term strategy. the media LOVES to tear that one down. it only works if you've REALLY got a lock on things. you have to crush threats before they become credible, otherwise the media will pump it up. obama's not in that position. so he needs the story to be that of a strong and steady thoroughbred. he may not have the lead at every moment of the race, but he keeps moving. strong and steady. all race long. always looking for the finish. eyes on the prize.

obama's building a great story. mclame's got flash-in-the-pan written all over his mishmash of disoganized story themes. whatever giddiness there is over the media's first date with falin' is quickly fading. his aces in the hole, such as the pow crap, are in tatters. overused to get him to this point, too early in the race.

take a moment to fret if you must, but use that energy for good. quit your bellyaching and do the work obama needs you to do. make that call.


me? i'm wearing my obama t-shirt, got my obama sticker on my car bumper, and the yard sign's on backorder.


and you?