Is 2008 providing clues to vote suppression in 2004?

[ProSense]

So where was Florida in 2004? In short, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans in the state. At the beginning of 2004, there were 3,903,563 registered Democrats, 3,568,697 registered Republicans, and 1,825,280 Indies; or for a percentage breakdown, Democrats accounted for 41.9% of the electorate, Republicans counted for 38.5%, and Indies made up 19.5%, not much different than where Florida is right now. By election day in 2004, there were 4,315,222 registered Democrats, 3,942,040 registered Republicans, and 2,189,546 Indies; or for a percentage breakdown, Democrats accounted for 41.3% of the electorate, Republicans 37.7%, and Indies 20.9%. Again except for the surge in Indie registration the two parties were not that far off from where they started at the beginning of the year (the Indie surge story will become important by the end of the diary). Yet despite this built-in advantage come election day in 2004, exit polls showed that Democrats only accounted for 37% of those who voted, Republicans made up 41%, and Indies made up 23%. In other words, Republicans outperformed, Indies outperformed, and Democrats significantly (from a statistical perspective) underperformed from their original share of the registered electorate. Interestingly, that year Bush won the nationwide popular vote by roughly 3% (a corrollation that, as explained below, had repeated itself in the two prior elections).

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Much of the briefing covered specifics on the focus on turnout by the Obama campaign and their massive effort to "adjust the electorate" to their benefit. He cited several examples, including Florida where he claimed that roughly 600,000 African Americans that were registered but did not vote in 2004, with more than half of that group coming from African Americans under 40 years of age. "If we just execute on turnout" in Florida, he said, "we're going to be bumping up on our win number." They also believe they can keep states like Virginia and North Carolina competitive if they "blow the doors off turnout."

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Republicans prevented more than 350,000 voters in Ohio from casting ballots or having their votes counted -- enough to have put John Kerry in the White House.

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Florida: African-American (12%)
Bush 13% (+6 from 2000)
Kerry 86%

Ohio African-American (10%)
Bush 16% (+7 from 2000)
Kerry 84%

National: African-American (11%)
Bush 11% (+2 from 2000)
Kerry 88%

Now can someone explain how Bush's percentages among African Americans climbed by 6 percent in Florida and 7 percent in Ohio, indicating that African-American turnout was up. Yet 650,000 African Americans registered in Florida, but failed to vote?

On edit:

In 2000, Al Gore got 500,000 votes more than George Bush

In 2004, John Kerry got 8 million more votes than Al Gore.

Somehow, George Bush, after serving four failed years in office and being exposed as a liar, managed to reverse his fortunes by adding 11.5 million votes to his 2000 totals.

[ProSense]

1. No comment? n/t

[karynnj]

2. Ohio alone was enough to win

and what was done there was adaciously done in plain sight.

The Florida numbers look suspicious - why would so many go the trouble of registering that year and then not vote. (I know there was a problem with Broward county's absentee votes getting delivered.) You wonder if things were done to suppress the vote in many Democratic areas. The problem is that there is not enough proof to say it was not just lack of interest in voting.

[ProSense]

3. Interesting point:

The problem is that there is not enough proof to say it was not just lack of interest in voting.

Interest in registering was up and Democrats turned out in greater numbers for Kerry (8 million more). Yet somehow in Ohio and Florida, despite Democrats registering in great numbers than Republicans, only Bush voters appeared interested in voting. That's suspicious.

[Peace Patriot]

4. What should we expect, when the voting machines are controlled by Bushite Corpos

with 'TRADE SECRET,'PROPRIETARY programming code, and virtually no audit/recount controls?

The billionaire fascist CEOs who are running things can (s)elect whomever they goddamn please. That is the situation.

And it's not just in Florida; it's throughout the U.S.A. (except New York, which held out on "TRADE SECRET' electronic voting, but is succumbing now). The fast-track conversion of our voting system to non-transparent SECRET code, with ZERO or (only in the best states) 1% auditing*, WAS the fascist coup/part 2, the part that made Bush/Cheney unremovable, and produced a 'Democratic' Congress with a a single digit approval rating--worse than Bush/Cheney's!

Until we change this, a) no public official in this country--from dogcatcher to president--can prove that he or she was actually elected; and b) we will continue to be ruled by fascists and Corpos, cuz that's who Diebold & brethren want in office.

Give fascists this kind of power--SECRET vote counting power--and the result is INEVITABLE. They WILL use that power for ill. What's to stop them? NOTHING! And when you combine that power with Corpo/fascist 'news' monopoly power and global corporate predator financial power, they can run subtle control programs on us, such as permitting Obama to get elected, but shaving his mandate and giving him a difficult, "Blue Dog" (pro-war/Corpo) Congress--to prevent reform--and then crashing the economy good and properly and blaming it on the "liberals"! (--scenario for installing Hitler II in 2012). The cleverness of this particular scenario is that it will tend to lull the American people back to sleep, and retard the election reform movement, then...BOOM! This viper--'TRADE SECRET' vote counting--comes back to bite us four difficult years later.

Another possible Obama scenario: They will try to trap him (as they tried to trap JFK) into "Bay of Pigs" II-Venezuela--another oil war. It's all set up, believe me. Add a military Draft, and more Depression II job/housing/income losses, and you have Obama meltdown. Enter Hitler II, with a shredded Constitution, chaos on the center-left, and unchallenged powers of indefinite detention without trial, torture of prisoners, massive spying, "executive signing statements," adoring Corpo 'news' media, a nazified police establishment, and the whole brutal, end-of-democracy horror in the U.S. of A.

It can happen here--easily--cuz the bad guys own the voting machines. We have lost PUBLIC control of our voting system. And we must get it back. We must! (--still possible at the local/state level, where ordinary people still have some influence).

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*(By comparison, in Venezuela, they use electronic voting, but is is an OPEN SOURCE code system--anyone may review the code by which they tabulate the votes--and they hand-count a whopping 55% of the votes as a check on machine fraud. Some experts say we need a minimum of 10% hand-counting to detect most electronic fraud. We don't even come close to the minimum needed, anywhere in the U.S. Why? WHY? Think, my friends! Think! Why is it such a struggle just to get the minimum audit needed to detect fraud in these highly insecure, 'TRADE SECRET' vote counting systems? Why were these systems unverifiable from the get-go? Why are they still unverifiable? WHY?)

[ProSense]

5. Vote suppression was

a huge factor in 2004. I'm totally convinced that the Republicans tampered with the machines, but people who refuse to believe in wide-scale machine fraud, can at least understand the impact of suppressing voter turnout. The 350,000 African American votes not cast in Ohio was more than enough to put Kerry over the top.

[Peace Patriot]

6. We can solve the problem of vote suppression by enforcement of existing law--

the Voting Rights Act of 1965. It is a problem that has been recognized, and given strong legal standing in our political/legal system. That the murdering, torturing thieves in the White House didn't enforce the law--and, in fact, actively subverted it, with impunity--is the result of Democratic Party malfeasance and collusion. We are on our way to solving that problem (our traitorous party leaders). Democrats, when activated, fight back against such law-breaking, and are strong proponents of maximum citizen participation. We are the party of civil rights. We are the "big tent" party, when we are true to our soul.

However, 'TRADE SECRET, PROPRIETARY programming code, with virtually no audit/recount controls, is a much more dangerous problem--because there is no law against it, the laws instead enshrine this privatization of vote counting; and because all of our party leaders either support it (--an almost 100% Dem vote for e-voting with no controls, in Oct 02), or are too intimidated to say anything. (Diebold & brethren can easily--EASILY!--UN-elect them! Or Bush spies, dirty tricks and black ops can destroy them--as happened to CA SoS Kevin Shelley, when he went after Diebold six months prior to the 2004 (s)election.) They have reason to fear, truly. I don't excuse cowardice. But I have to say that it is understandable in this context. It is situation. We otherwise have to believe that our Democratic Party leaders and office holders are insane. And I don't believe them to be insane.

In 2004, Rove had backups for his fraud. The pre-installed Blackwell operation in Ohio was one of them. And, as it turned out, Ohio resisted Dieboldization, and wasn't fully Diebolded by Nov 04. So they had to use the backup--blatant, obvious, out-in-the-open--and much riskier--violations of the Voting Rights Act. We would be foolish, however, to ignore the fast-track privatization of vote counting that occurred almost everywhere else, with about 80% of the voting systems in the country made wholly non-transparent, and in Bushite Corpo control, by 2004. Why? This wasn't done for no reason. And it was not done to solve any problem ("hanging chads"). It was obviously--on its face--done to acquire SECRET fascist control of the vote counting. That is what it DID acquire. That's where we are now.

So, we may be much more vigilant this time over voter purges and other vote suppression--and I'm sure we are being, and will be--but meanwhile, more vote counting systems have gone invisible. It's now nearly 100% of the country, with about half with NO VERIFIABILITY AT ALL, and the other with a paper ballot backup that is 99% UNCOUNTED.

Are our party leaders insane? No. Some are corrupt. Some are scared. Some are doing their best in the very bad situation of a fascist coup (part 1-2000, part 2-2004, and, if the truth were known, part 1.5, 2002, and part 2.5, 2006). Howard Dean, for instance, beefed up the caucus primaries--which are not counted by Diebold & brethren. This made an insurgent campaign--a grass roots campaign--feasible. He also has empowered the grass roots (THE most important element of election reform), and has pursued the "50-state" strategy (no state conceded to the Pukes).

Our election system is a very complex affair. For instance, you have to some support and some money in order to get Diebolded into office. So volunteer support and money can be important as to who gets into a position to be Diebolded into office (or not). A candidate being able to handle the non-stop fascist/Corpo flak on TV is important (at least to neutralize it somewhat). And huge voter turnout might be able to overwhelm the 'TRADE SECRET' programming of the machines. So GOTV remains important. But, in 2004, the Dem grass roots blew the Bushites away in new voter registration, nearly 60/40. Where did all those votes go? That is the problem.

And Ohio, in my opinion, is something of a distraction in finding the answer--and I say that as a former MLK volunteer in the voting rights campaign in Alabama in 1965. Ohio was enraging and heartbreaking. How dare they? HOW DARE THEY? I am convinced, however, that 2004 was not stolen in Ohio; it was stolen in small percentages, in the 'TRADE SECRET' code machines, everywhere else, and then those suppressed votes in Ohio became important. Kerry won 2004 by a much larger margin than the Ohio vote difference. He won it by at least 3% (as reflected in the real, undoctored exit polls--all over the country, but concentrated in the eastern states). And if we ignore the overwhelming case for this--the deliberate set up of a system in which widespread fraud could easily be accomplished, without detection, and then the utilization of that system to flip the vote from Kerry to Bush--we are throwing our democracy away.

Our democracy cannot--and will not--survive, if we do not regain PUBLIC control of the vote counting. And that is not likely to happen if we keep ignoring the evidence of an inherently fraudulent election system, and the strong evidence that it has been used to keep Bush/Cheney in office and to keep the war in Iraq going until they get the oil contracts signed and also to keep the U.S. military there to protect those contracts (--the 06 Congress--the one with the single digit approval rating--whose votes are the exact opposite of what the American people wanted; 70% wanted the war ended; 06 Congress - 60% to 70% voted to re-fund and escalate it, instead).

It's staring us in the face. Our leaders are deaf to us because they are immune from accountability to the people with transparent vote counting. They don't have to care any more. And they don't. They are beholden to the rightwing Corpo fuckwads at Diebold, ES&S and Sequoia, and not to us.

We don't know how they will use this fascist power in November. They got away with doctoring the exit polls in 2004. So they've possibly taken things further now, and are doctoring the pre-election opinion polls--as prep to Diebolding McCain/Palin into office. We can do everything in our power to insure that this won't happen, but we do not have the power to prevent it, if that's what the billionaires who are running things decide to do to us. And if they decide the other way--to let Obama win--we must be no less determined to restore transparent vote counting. What they have is a lethal fascist power, and we owe our children--and we owe to the memories of those who passed democracy to us--an all-out fight to deprive these Corpos and fascists of that power.