Rasmussen -Obama 49% -McCane 46%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Thrill]

1. Interesting

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I Hate Close Elections And Sporting Events When My Team Or Candidate Is Involved

But it is what it is...

America is a divided nation...Close elections seem like the norm...I used to follow Israeli politics...The left and right were pretty much divided, fifty-fifty as well...

[FreakinDJ]

2. Bye Bye Freeptrols

So much for a convention bounce

I guess America is not buying into the Maveric/Hockey Mom thing. Quick John and Sarah - there is still time to reinvent yourselves

[jefferson_dem]

3. Yo DSB.

You beat me to it, I see. Just like old times, eh.

Welcome back. It's nice to see you around! :hi:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. This Is The Third Close Election In A Row

My nerves can't take it...

[BeyondGeography]

10. Two months of sheer hell await us

We'll be here for you, friend.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. 00 Hurt A Lot Because I Thought For Sure Gore Would Win

And I met Al and Tipper and genuinely liked them...

In 04 I was never convinced Kerry was going to beat Bush* but like almost everybody else I believed the (raw) exit polls and was disappointed...

Every available metric favors the Democrats...But America is a polarized nation and the forces of reaction are many...

I always intended to vote for the Democratic candidate but I was tepid in my support...Sarah Palin's mocking of Senator Obama was deeply, deeply offensive to me and moved me from tepid to passionate...I don't like McCane and Falin at all...

[BeyondGeography]

32. Boxer made a great statement about that, probably describes your reaction pretty well

There's a video at the bottom of the story:

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Barbara_Boxer_Palin_extremist_%5BVIDEO.DE%5D_0905.html

[jensmygov]

4. Plus 1

Up 1 from yesterday!!!!!

[Hope And Change]

5. An excerpt from the poll...

Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Yeah, I Noticed That...I Knew That...Much To My Chagrin

Damn...

But I would take a 49-46 win tomorrow...

[Hope And Change]

11. Me too :)

[Sugarcoated]

22. Yes, it's close, but if you look at the polls for the past couple months

the trend lines, while they go up and down slightly here and there, Obama's have consistently floated above McLame's, and in nearly every national poll since April or so he's been ahead by anywhere from 3 to 8 points. The trend lines for '04 weren't like that for Kerry. He had small leads here and there, but Smirk seemed to have the upper edge. Going by those stats (and their internal polls, I'm sure) it's why McLame's handlers felt they had no choice other than a desperate hail Mary. They know it's slipping away so they figured it was worth the risk. Like in Scrabble when you can't come up with a word, so you throw all your letters back and try again. A huge risk, but one they felt they had to take.

Palin, IMO, while energizing and solidifying a base that would've held its nose and voted for McLame anyway, will lose more undecideds than he gains due her inexperience, extreme stances on issues, and all the scandals and skeletons in her closet. I don't think she's got the broad appeal the RW wants us to think. She didn't come across that well in her debut to America at the convention. She was was competent, tough and had a lot of cute one liners, but they/she went too far in word and in tone. She came across as smug and mean, not likable.

All things considered, I feel very good about this race.

[DCBob]

28. Yeah, but I don't think there will be much positive bump from the McCain acceptance speech..

He was pathetic. The big bump should have occured from the Palin speech and the media's orgasmic reactions during the past few days.

[JoshDem]

9. McCain's gains have come from women

Down 7% from women vs. down 14%. Men McCain up 3%.

Palin and McCain 58% favorability ratings, Obama 57%--no real difference.

Looks like a tie race once impact of McCain speech factored in.

[Tutonic]

17. Is the air a little thin up there JoshDem? She is not gaining amongst

women. And Obama is picking up votes among Independent men. If you're saying that she energized the Republican base then I'll agree. If you're implying that this race is in anyway close I'll ask again is the air a little thin up there? This is going to be a blow out!!!!

[maseman]

13. Mental Masturbation

None of this matters. If we elected people on the general population vote and didn't have an electoral college thsi would matter.

You MUST factor in Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and the Green Party. You must look state by state. This is like forecasting the weather using a barometer only.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. But The State Polls Follow The Nat'l Polls

So nat'l polls are one of an assortment of tools we can use...

I would be doing a jig if Obama was up by thirty three points which is where Jimmy Carter was in 1976 after the Democratic Convention...

[maseman]

16. Not really

Let's say that McCain has a huge surge of support from California in the national polling (for whatever reason.) That would reflect the national poll maybe a few percentage points but California isn't going to go for Mccain overall and would still be blue.

The slim margins in states for the electoral college is where it matters. Hell even the campaign is sayign the same thing. These are for news operations to opine and bloviat endlessly.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Concede Your Point

I have seen models where a candidate can win the pop vote by ten points and still lose the Electoral College... (That's why it should go)...However, the horse race numbers give us some idea of where we are ...

I just wish it wasn't close...

If I had to bet the house I would put the over/under at two percentage points...

[maseman]

26. No kidding

I wish it were also by 10 point spread. But it isn't so they must focus on the state by state narrow margins.

[Zynx]

34. That scenario would never happen. States don't vote in isolation.

A popular vote and electoral vote disparity can happen at the margins, but not drastically different.

[Zynx]

33. However, state trends tend to move along with a general national trend.

States are not isolated from eachother. If Obama surges 6 points nationwide, the odds are he picked up support in every state.

[WeDidIt]

15. DEAD CAT BOUNCE!!!

This takes into account the entire GOP convention!

NO REAL MEASURABLE BOUNCE!!!

Now let's hold off a bit and see how Gallup plays out.

[tedoll78]

18. If McCain can't get even a small lead from his own convention..

he's dead meat. At that point, we're going to see the kitchen sink strategy employed. The nastiest, most shameful, disgusting things we've ever seen in a campaign.

Hard to imagine..

[book_worm]

20. We'll know for sure by Monday or Tuesday the result of the convention

My guess is that it's statistically tied one way or the other.

[Sugarcoated]

23. Negative doesn't work

if the candidate doing the negative ads is a dud.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

21. where's the McCain/Palin surge?

[malik flavors]

24. If by Wednesday McCain hasn't taken the lead in any of the polls he's been trailing in...

we're in pretty decent shape for the last two months i'd say.

Palin's favorables should start to come down once people learn more about her. The way they're hiding her from the press is also a benefit to us because if people don't learn more about her and feel comfortable with her knowledge, abilities, and positions they'll be less likiely to vote for her.

[democrattotheend]

25. Not so bad

Interesting that Obama's lead is now bigger with leaners. Before the conventions the opposite was the case.

[DCBob]

27. This is great! Very minor Palin/RNC convention bounce.

Heck Obama is actually up 1 from yesterday. This is very good news indeed. The Palin scandals will now start to kick in.

[terrya]

29. Hey, they advertise a mailing list to Newt Gingrich AND a link to donate to McCain/Palin!

Right on the home page! Not even slightly subtle.

I spit on those numbers. Pthoo!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. I'd Spit On Them Too If They Didn't Conform To Everybody Else's

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

[Kdillard]

30. Not much of a bounce for McCain we will see what happens tomorrow and Monday.

I am hoping that Biden puts on a good show in the VP debates and while I am less certain about Obama on the debates I hope he does well and we will see a bounce from that which will start a steady lead of about 9-10 points. Convention bounces aren't steady they will ebb but Obama held his bounce for a nice period. Coupled with Obama's plan to have Hillary get out on the stump for him along with other high profile female Dems we are in good shape. They really need to let other women know that Sarah doesn't care about their issues.