RNC Post-Convention Bounce - McCain Is Still Behind Obama

[Median Democrat]

I wonder whether the McCain/Palin's convention speeches have any additional momentum, but after entering the DNC convention season essentially tied, Obama now emerges ahead by +2.6. I still think Big Media will do its best to keep the election close, and I am sure the RNC has at least one more "Liberal Media" Get-Out-Of-Jail card if it needs a quick 2 points. The "liberal media" bias card is kind of like a turbo boost. You can't use it constantly, but in a close race, it can give the RNC a quick 2 points as the media responds by backing off, and generating negative stories against Obama.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

[UndertheOcean]

1. yohoooooo!

[opihimoimoi]

2. How in the world can them fundies look upon McSame as a hero to lead this nation outta twoubles?

after seeing this clip???

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/07/10/mccain.insurance.question.cnn

He is such a dolt....

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Did he get back to her?

[opihimoimoi]

5. Not that I Know of.....should be looked into.....If Not, WHY Not?

:toast:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

7. Answer-to-question-gate!!!

:grr:

[Chan790]

4. Seems too soon...

The convention only ended yesterday (Well...Thursday).

Any poll released today would probably only accurately reflect sentiment post-Palin and pre-McCain, i.e. through Thursday afternoon. I don't think anybody polled 500 people Friday, compiled results and released those results same day.

Still...I'm not expecting McCain's speech to provide a large bounce since it panned...because it sucked.

[regnaD kciN]

6. Correct...

Unfortunately, the RNC ended only last night, which means that the tracking poll surveys that include reaction to McCain's speech were being taken today, and will be released tomorrow. Only at that point can we begin to consider the convention season "over." (And it will probably take a few more days for polls to return to a non-bounce state.)

While I still suspect McCain will emerge from the weekend with a narrow lead, that will be about it, and his convention bounce should be lost within a week or so at the longest. I was personally expecting a bigger tightening of the polls in results released this morning, due to Obama losing a very good night of polling on Monday, and the survey including the first night after Palin's supposed "grand slam" debut. I was pretty much certain that yesterday's results would show McCain ahead in the daily total, or at least tied, but it appears that Obama still won the day, albeit by a whisker.

Remember what Nate at FiveThirtyEight.com has said: the past two days (Thursday and Friday, with results to be released Friday and Saturday) are likely going to be the two best polling days McCain is going to get. If he hasn't taken the lead by the time those days start falling out of the cycle (i.e. next Monday), he's going to have a hard time playing catch-up.

[Median Democrat]

8. They Entered Convention Season Tied - Will McCain Have A Post Convention Lead?