What are Obama's paths to victory and 270 electoral votes

[Juche]

I am under the impression that Obama will win the states Kerry won in 2004. The west coast, northern midwest and northeast, giving him 252 electoral votes. Is this a safe assumption, or could Obama lose places like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire or Michigan?

He is also far ahead in Iowa, a normally democratic state that almost always (except in 04) goes democrat in presidential races. So that gives him 259.

That leaves 11 electoral votes. Obama can do one of the following to win:

Win Ohio
Win Florida
Win Virginia
Win Indiana (vaguely possible, but probably not gonna happen)
Win Georgia (Bob Barr & the high youth and black vote should help him there)
Win 2 of the following 4 states - New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona (possible), or Colorado which have heavy latino populations and are registering tons of democrats.

Am I missing anything? If so this looks like a pretty good shot that Obama can win if he only needs to win using 1 of those 6 strategies. What is the Obama campaign doing to do this? I Know the Obama campaign and the DNC are pushing $20 million to register latino voters in the southwestern states. I know they are working in Ohio and Virginia.

FTR, I would looooooooooooove it if Obama won Mississippi. In between the northern migrants, the heavy black population and the more moderate youth it is possible. That would be the ultimate fuck you to the George Wallaces of the world for Obama to win Mississippi.

Is this a feasable election strategy? This topic may have been covered to death but I've been gone for about 3 months.

[Muttocracy]

1. Lots of goodies here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6954792

[Juche]

2. Thanks

I've been gone from DU for about 3 months so I'm sure this topic has been discussed, but I've missed it.

[Muttocracy]

5. no problem, and I think you're right - he needs to shore up the leaning

states you mentioned, get one more difficult state like Colorado or VA.

[DCBob]

3. There are many roads to victory for Obama.

Check out my cool Election Calculator:

http://zbob.net/yeswecan/USAVote.html

I have identified several Obama victory scenarios and also some plausible tie scenarios. Yikes!

[JoshDem]

11. That is very cool.

I got Obama 270 and McCain 265--gave Obama New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado and McCain the whole south and Ohio. I think it will be a nailbiter.

[DCBob]

19. Hey Josh. You left off DC -- I added it for you and updated your scenario. Its now 273-265.

DC is tiny and hard to see. I need to fix that with a box and pointer. Anyway, your scenario makes sense and could easily happen that way. It could be a real barnburner and might even be a tie! However, I am hoping Obama will "surge" in the end and make it a landslide. We don't need anymore drama! :)

[JoshDem]

22. Thanks DC Bob

I nknew it did not add up but I could not figure out what I did wrong.

[Herman74]

29. Wait, that doesn't add up...

Who did you give New Hampshire to?

I think that the total of electoral delegates should add to 538.

Don't give up on Virginia, which Obama beat Hillary in, and Senator Webb and Governor Kaine and soon-to-be new Democratic Senator Mark Warner will be campaigning on Obama's behalf.

[Median Democrat]

4. Get Democrats To Stop Being Tools of Big Media and Focus On Voter Turnout?

I know a lot of people want to listen to the siren call of Big Media and discuss Palin's kids, but I think its better to spread the word at a grass roots level, and try to convince the 40% of people who do not vote, to vote.

[Herman74]

6. He may be a little closer than 259...

New Mexico's governor will be out campaigning for him, and it appears to me that New Mexico's vacant U.S. Senate seat will go blue. Obama's generally been ahead in the polls for New Mexico.

I think Georgia is really a long shot even with Bob Barr (I myself wouldn't have considered it).

Colorado's been polling well for Obama/Biden. In addition, the vacant Senate seat may well go blue.

Since 2002, when Florida went for Jeb for Governor, the state has been typically messed up. I'm more confident of a win elsewhere.

Virginia is a possibility. The Dem governor, senator, and future senator will be doing all they can to help Obama and Biden. I think the polling is about even there.

Ohio could go either way, but will probably go Dem. The anti-gay marriage initiative thing that hurt Kerry in 2004 won't be around to do damage to Obama.

I agree with you that Indiana probably isn't going to happen, but there's a possibility of a winning gain on the Montana/North Dakota combo.

I'm surprised and disappointed that Missouri hasn't been polling better. But I would consider Missouri before considering Georgia.

Generally, right NOW at least it's not looking good for McCain. See www.pollster.com.

[JoshDem]

7. He could lose Michigan and maybe New Hampshire but rest are safe

As far as pickups McCain's home state Arizona bis out of the question. His best bet for a pickup may be New Mexico where an increased Latino vote could put him over the top. This may maike him competitive in Nevada and Colorado as well but he is still an underdog(in my view). Florida and Indiana are long shots and Vi9rginia and North Carolina are unlikely as Obama is way behind in the white vote. It may all come down to Ohio again.

[blue_onyx]

9. I would be surprised if he lost Michigan

Obama has been leading in most polls. McCain has been here three times in about three week (the most recent was today). He has been advertising like crazy...a lot more than Obama has been. But the polls haven't really changed much for McCain and I don't think they will. Obama will beginning to gain the closer we get to the election and I think will win by 7-8%.

[blue_onyx]

8. I'm being more optimistic

I'm thinking Obama will get 329. He'll win all Kerry states plus: Montana, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Virgina, North Carolina, and Ohio. Who knows, it may be unlikely for Obama to win this many states but it's what I'm feeling right now.

[kwolf68]

13. Obama is not going to win North Carolina

Virginia is quite a stretch as well (I live here), but more plausible given the good showing by our latest Dems (Warner, Kaine, Webb) and the increasing strength of Northern Virginia.

Still, Virginia likes it's 'local' Democratic politicos, but typically goes Republican in the national elections. We still have a lot of religious quackery around this state as well.

If I had to guess right now I'd say Obama won't win Virginia, but it WILL BE very close I think. Just too many historical obstacles to overcome here.

I don't think Obama will win Montana either. If he wins that state over a ticket with a 'frontierswomen' on it I would be utterly shocked.

New Mexico? Yes, I like Obama's chances. Obama is polling MUCH better with the hispanic vote than did Kerry. McCain's flip flop on immigration has turned those folks off.

Nevada I have no clue, not enough knowledge about that.

Iowa I think Obama wins easily and I think he's also going to pickup Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.

Ohio? Good luck on picking that one.

I'm looking for scenarios that give Obama the election w/o Ohio and I don't see it. We need to get Ohio. If Obama gets Ohio, game over.

[JoshDem]

14. KWolf--I see things almost as exactly as you do

I too think chances of winning North Carolina are remote and Virginia not much better--he also has little chance of carrying Florida, Montana and Nevada. He will win New Mexico due to the Hispanic vote and like you I think Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Michigan go Obama.
The key states are three--Ohio, Colorado, and New Hampshire. Despite increased Hispanic vote in Colorado I think its tough. New Hampshire I will say leans very slightly Obama. Thus it all comes down to Ohio. I think Ohio is 50/50.

It will be very close.

[blue_onyx]

15. Yeah, I know North Carolina and Montana are unlikely

Those are my two upset predictions. Virginia could go either way but since it's a bad year for Republicans, it will swing just enough towards Obama. It's 2 month away from the election so it's difficult to guess what will really happen. Yes, Ohio will be very important once again. But I think that since the economy is the main issue, especially in states like Ohio, that Obama will get Ohio too.

[davepc]

17. Close in Bush states is good, it means McCain is spending time and money playing defence

not going on offence in swing states

[jerryster]

27. It can be done without Ohio...

if Obama wins Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico and the rest of the map stays the same as 2004.

[jerryster]

28. It can be done without Ohio...

if Obama wins Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico AND the rest of the map stays the same as 2004.

[Gabi Hayes]

10. John King said it could all come down to New Hampshire, if

McCain wins states like MO, CO, NV, NM, but loses VA, and wins MI, I think

can't remember the exact combo, but it sounded pretty much like the Kerry map, with one or two deviations, which elude me at the moment

[blue_onyx]

12. I'm sure he and the rest of the media are dying for it to come down to one state or maybe even a tie

[davepc]

18. I'll take a tie every day of the week. Tie goes to the House. The House is blue.

[Gabi Hayes]

16. anybody else think Obama wins BIG if Palin has to go home and "take care of her family?"

I've become a christian in the last two days, hoping the Enquirer can back their story the way they did the Edwards tale

[No Elephants]

20. Go to the polls section of realclearpolitics.com Click on the battleground states. It will become

clearer. Also check fivethirtyeight.com and pollster.com.

[Awsi Dooger]

21. Obama needs to win at least one of these 4 states

Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Florida

As long as we get one of those, the margin for error is on our side. Otherwise it's trouble. We always want to pretend we can sweep the lesser states to make up for losing the biggies but that's severely less doable than we estimate.

I threw Florida in, even though it's supposedly less feasible than the other 3. In normal circumstance Florida would be more likely than Virginia and Colorado, but Obama has demographic weakness in Florida.

[quaker bill]

24. In FL, turnout is the key

Polls on election eve showed Al Gore behind Bush by 5 points in 2000. Polls currently show Barack Obama down by +/- 2 points in FL. Having worked for both Gore and Kerry here, I can say that Barack Obama is vastly more organized for the GOTV effort in FL than Gore and Kerry combined. Beyond this, the number of registered Republican voters has actually declined statewide since 2004 while the number of registered Democrats has grown. In short, the Democratic party has increased its registration advantage by over 160,000 voters. Turning them out and getting their votes counted is the key.

Better yet, for this election, for the first time, there will be a single standard optical scan paper ballot statewide. There will be a verifiable and recountable paper trail. No more flushing 100,000 uncountable punch card ballots from heavily democratic areas like Palm Beach County or heavily minority areas like around Jacksonville.

We can take FL.

[ps1074]

23. PA, MI, OH

That is your answer. Without all of the 3 it will be very difficult as Palin will help McCain with their base. It will be a base election and the map will look pretty much like 2000 and 2004.

NM, NV, NH, IA and even CO might change but without any of the 3 above it will be very very difficult.

I like it that Obama and Biden were in PA this past week. Seems to me they want to put PA out of play for McCain and if they succeed this early it will be great.

[FrenchieCat]

25. He needs Nevada and New Mexico and one - Colorado/Virginia/Ohio

[Herman74]

30. He Needs Nevada OR New Mexico, and one of CO/VA/OH...

...he doesn't need them both, unless you're thinking he'll lose New Hampshire.

Indeed, it's possible that AT THIS POINT New Mexico is more firmly behind Obama than is New Hampshire (Kerry doing well in NH to 4 years ago perhaps to a good degree because it was in his backyard). --> www.pollster.com.

Heck, come to think of it, he might not even need NH after all, were he to win Virginia or Ohio.

[jerryster]

26. I was actually working on it this morning.

I used old fashioned paper and pen and some simple math. The 2004 election saw Bush with 286 EVs to Kerry's 252. Obama, as I see it, needs Michigan to stay in our column. If it does, and Obama picks up Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, we win with those additional 21 EVs. What's interesting to me is that this scenario works even if we lose Ohio! Iowa is almost certainly in our column and New Mexico looks to be as well. Colorado is not as likely.

As an aside, check out www.electoral-vote.com. Look at the Dakotas and Montana. Bush absolutely buried Kerry in all 3 states and all are in play for Obama. Very interesting.

Once again, though, Michigan HAS to stay in our column in my very rudimentary scenario. Of course, if we win Ohio....