The Real Reason Palin was chosen - the narrative that justifies theft

[garthranzz]

When McCain said this election won't be about issues, that was a clue. The Republicans grafted an ethos-narrative in 2004 that allowed them to steal the election. They'll do it again. Here's how (or, here's the plot line):

If an election is within 5%, it can be stolen. The Margin of Error (MoE) is 2-3%, so 5% can be fudged, if the narrative is right. A victory of 55%-45% is too great. But 53%-47% can be flipped, if the story works - if all the foreshadowing is in place.

1. Obama is charismatic - change the keyword "charismatic" to "arrogant," "elitist," or an equivalent. Note that the same keyword was used against Kerry. It was easier, given the personality differences, but the narrative keywords are critical: an intelligent, respectful, involved candidate, with a track record of leadership and accomplishments, is transformed into an "intellectual snob" - perhaps the oldest class warfare in the country. Think high school.

2. Obama is Black. This is the subtext that won't be spoken, but was during the Democratic primaries. We've heard it. People, especially working class, blue collar Democrats, will say they'll support Obama, but in the voting booth, the bigotry and racism will show, because it's private. A similar narrative - the silent Bush voters - was used in 2004.

3. Young people won't vote. This is the equivalent of the dumping or ignoring of the massive voter registration in 2004. I teach on a college campus. Not since I myself was in college during the Vietnam era have the 18-24 age group been so vocal, active and involved. They are driving much of the internet and blog movement for Obama. They will be the Black Ohioans of 2008. Oh, sure, the narrative will run, you can get college kids to a protest, but they won't vote. They're too busy drinking and, you know, hormoning.

4. Since none of these narratives, by themselves, may be enough, there has to be the main plot - the disaffected Hillary voters. Women, snubbed by Obama, will turn to Palin, the hockey mom, the working mother. Even Biden bought into that narrative - a woman can raise a family, including an infant disabled child, and still be an effective VP. After all, Biden's wife is also a full-time mother and a full-time teacher. With all due respect - and my wife is also a full-time mother and a full-time teacher - that's nonsense. The responsibilities of the VP are categorically different than those of any other job.
But they'll run the "women, especially middle class and working women, identify with Palin. They're turned off by the sexist attacks and they'll vote for Palin in Nov. the way they did for Hillary in NH." And here's the kicker: You can bet that Hillary is furious at this, because Palin is the opposite of everything she stands for and fought for. Hillary will go all out on the campaign trail - and that will feed into the narrative: Women are turned off by the angry, shrill Hillary. They'll take Hillary's message, but not Hillary - or who she supports. It's a damned if you do - Palin will attract Hillary's supporters, and when Hillary tries to rally the troops, so to speak, she'll turn them off.

And then you have enough plot threads to divert attention from Diebold, in its latest incarnation, and the theft of 2008.

This is also a reason you won't see any "legitimate" or "mainstream" polls showing Obama with more than 9% lead. (Remember the classic Daily Show skit about the magic 9.5% number?) They can't pull a bait and switch against a landslide.

[blm]

1. I remember the narrative about young people don't vote. But, it turned out they DID VOTE.

But that didn't break through the new lie that 'values voters' put Bush back in. Which Schiavo case a few months later PROVED was a huge lie, as most of the country sided against the GOP's idea of 'family values' in that case.

[TwilightGardener]

2. You make some good points, but I don't see women falling for someone

who supposedly represents them but deep down seems to hate them. Palin is one of those Repub women who does whatever the fuck she wants because the legacy of feminism in this country gave her those options, but aims to change the game by restricting other women's options, and mocks the same feminism that got her where she is. Sorry, I don't see gals flocking to her. She's also just too cartoonish and snide.

[orestes]

3. Women don't have to fall for her

At least not many. The only thing that needs to be done, is to convince enough folks that that is what happened, regardless of whether it actually happened or not.

[Prefer]

4. %100 agree

all about a plausible election theft.

notice that the "shift" in outcome always comes AFTER 5:00 PM, when the trends have been established. (both in 2000 and 2004)

This is important because they need to figrue out the exact amount to corrupt the results by to make it "feel" right,

[lurky]

5. When the exit polls and vote tallies differ,

they can say the religious right turned out big for Palin, and also blame the Bradley effect.