NH Tracking poll Clark 14 (+2) , Kerry 14 (0), Dean 37 (-2)

[Mattforclark]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Braun 0% 0%
Clark 12% 14%
Dean 39% 37%
Edwards 3% 3%
Gephardt 6% 6%
Kerry 14% 14%
Kucinich 2% 2%
Lieberman 6% 7%
Sharpton 0% 0%
Other 1% 1%
Undecided 17% 16%

Sample size 622 619

Democrats 453 445
Undeclared 169 174
Undeclared (%) 27% 28%
Methodology

Beyond Ballot Preference - January 6, 2004

Wesley Clark's ballot preference has increased since his latest visit to the state began last weekend. While a number of respondents have reported seeing the debate in Iowa on Sunday, more have mentioned coverage of Clark's visit to New Hampshire.

Clark's strength in the ballot preference continues to be among men. In the latest tracking, Dean leads Clark 30% to 22% among men and Dean leads Clark 43% to 7% among women. Clark is gaining on Dean among those with favorable opinions of Clark. Of the 52% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they have a favorable opinion of Clark, Dean leads Clark in ballot preference 28% to 23%.

[helleborient]

1. Woo Hoo - Clark (+2) Gep (+2) Kerry (-5) Dean (Even) since Dec. 26

I can just see the droves breaking in favor of Clark.

[HFishbine]

2. As you observe

the only movement beyond the poll's margin off error, since it began, is a one point decline for Kerry.

[giantrobot_2000]

3. ...

"I can just see the droves breaking in favor of Clark."

Tough break, huh?

[helleborient]

5. It was sarcasm...Dean was leading by 18, now 23

Like mentioned above...none of the candidates have shown any clear movement recently, except Kerry downward. On Dec. 26, Dean was leading the next candidate by 18 points, now he is leading by 23.

[giantrobot_2000]

8. ...

If Clark takes second in NH, he's going to give your guy a serious run for his money. I'm ABB, but until then, may the best man win (read: Clark).

[SahaleArm]

4. Calculated Risks...

While a number of respondents have reported seeing the debate in Iowa on Sunday, more have mentioned coverage of Clark's visit to New Hampshire.

Local coverage in NH trumps most everything else.

[helleborient]

6. The master calculating politician...

Good for Clark!

[SahaleArm]

9. No Dean, Kerry, and Gephardt have that title won - hands down

Clark has had to play Ketchup :)

[Renew Deal]

7. I guess NH 4 Dean was right.

Wow :)

[tameszu]

10. Someone clearly didn't get the official Dean campaign memo:

"We always knew Clark was going to come 2nd in NH, even though it's 1000s of miles away from his home state, unlike MA or VT, and even though everyone else has been campaigning for a year longer, so it's no big deal."

[maddezmom]

11. where did statement that come from? n/t

[helleborient]

12. What's the excuse for Dean rivaling Clark for tops in Oklahoma?

Oh, I see...there is none.

[Renew Deal]

17. Dean campaigning for 2 years

Clark campaigning for almost 4 months.

[helleborient]

18. Campaigning for 2 years in Oklahoma?

Sorry...wrong answer.

[Renew Deal]

21. What's the right answer

oh wise and knowledgable one?

[helleborient]

22. Dean is the ONLY truly national candidate in this race...

He is leading in states in all regions...

No other candidate is doing that.

[Renew Deal]

24. Oh yeah, Dean is the only one running for president.

I forgot.

[helleborient]

25. That's not what I said...the ONLY truly national campaign

Wesley Clark seems to be running to be the New Hampshire and Southern president.

[mouse7]

13. Clark will take a hit when he disappears for days of Iowa coverage

Clark is going to get hurt when the coverage turns completely to Iowa for a few days and he disappears from the media during that period.

[giantrobot_2000]

14. ...

You mean after it becomes clear that Gephardt is out of the running and Clark is the only competitor left?

Yeah, keep thinking that. Please.

[helleborient]

16. So Clark is pinning his hopes on a state where he's behind by 23...

That means Dean's support is more than double Clark's

A win in Iowa by Dean and then a drubbing of Clark in NH is good for Clark?

Hmmm...sounds like a spinmeister like Mary Matalin.

[SahaleArm]

19. Don't bank on a blowout win or do so at your own peril...

It just doesn't happen too often.

[tameszu]

20. The Lieberman folks laughed at me when I told them that Clark had a good

shot at coming in second.

You really don't want to look like those folks.

Also, the entire point of this game is expectations and what the media will write up--that's the entire currency of this game. Otherwise, the nominations would go to the last primary.

[Renew Deal]

23. You know better...

I think. It isn't about winning. 3rd place would be huge for Clark. 2nd would be incredible. 1st would end the race. Why? Because it is the expectations game. If Clark can travel half way across the country and do well after 4 months in a place where the others have been for 2 years... That means something.

[SahaleArm]

15. WMUR will still be covering NH n/t

[DemDogs]

26. ARG - who cares

This is the least reliable pollster out there. Have you got a real poll?